毛里求斯近海92S - 20.5S 56.9E - 南下掠过毛里求斯

颱風巨爵

92S INVEST 230316 0600 15.7S 57.7E SHEM 15 0

superstorm

GFS等数值00Z反应微弱，趋向马达加斯加。

superstorm

ECMWF18Z仅有一成员支持发展并登陆马达加斯加，其余预报南下。

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析T1.0

TXXS29 KNES 160618
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
B.  16/0530Z
C.  14.7S
D.  57.1E
E.  THREE/MET-9
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING ON A
LOG-10 SCALE. DT=1.0 MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...FISHER

红豆棒冰冰

今天下午ASCAT风场扫描显示东侧有30-35kt风旗

327

存在很长时间，没有受到关注……

红豆棒冰冰

The basin adopts an atypical pattern for the season with trade winds from East to South-East all
along the equator and a low-pressure corridor at the junction of the trade winds between two ridges
present south of the 25th parallel. This large-scale low level convergences currently extends from
17.5S/64.5E to 30S/75E, east of Rodrigues Island.
A weak low is visible on conventional satellite images, north of the Great Mascarene Islands,
between Tromelin and Saint-Brandon islands, and is currently benefiting from a relatively effective
low layer convergence giving moderate to strong convective activity in the eastern semicircle of this
clockwise circulation. The convective activity is also present, in a more scattered way along the
low-pressure corridor previously mentioned.
North of the Greater Mascarene Islands (Reunion Island and Mauricius Island).
A weak low-pressure circulation is currently present west of Saint-Brandon at the tip of a
low-pressure corridor atypical for our basin (similar to a South Pacific convergence zone). On the
last satellite images, the main convection is concentrated essentially to the east of the low-level
circulation and has strengthened over the last 24 hours. The center is rather difficult to locate
because of the high clouds related to the convection but the last ASCAT of 05:56ZZ located it
around 15.3S and 56.9E and the last AMSR2 microwave of 10:14Z located it around 15.7S and
56.7E, which gives it a South-southwestward movement at 4kt.
The strongest winds near the center reach 25kt still according to the ASCAT of 06Z, very locally
30kt in the eastern semicircle of the system. But because of the stretched aspect of the center it is
still only a zone of disturbed weather.
This minimum should not develop significantly during the next 5 days, because of an environment
that should remain hostile: maintenance of a long circulation, within which struggles to converge
the flow of low layers, associated with dry air aloft, coupled with a wind shear increasing from
Sunday on the vertical over the days, and the absence of divergence.
Nevertheless, this weak system, by moving south, should continue to generate / drain low-level
convergences located in the Eastern semicircle, and thus give rise to heavy thundery rain from
tomorrow Thursday until the end of the weekend over the Greater Mascarene Islands, and in
particular Mauritius island.
On the other hand, over the near-equatorial area, the monsoon flow is missing with the installation
of an Easterly wind anomaly linked to a very active MJO in the Western Hemisphere, spreading
over Africa. The basin pattern should therefore evolve towards a pattern hostile to the formation or
maintenance of low-level vorticity precursors.
Consequently, there is no risk of another tropical storm forming over the basin during the
next 5 days.

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析维持T1.0

TXXS29 KNES 161215
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92S)
B.  16/1130Z
C.  15.4S
D.  57.2E
E.  FIVE/MET-9
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...LARGER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...ZHU

assonll

系统来源于弗雷迪几天前在东侧尾巴过马达加斯加而形成的槽，槽西南侧系统南下转温，北侧系统经过几日发展于现在编号

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析TOO WEAK

TXXS29 KNES 161955
TCSSIO
CCA
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92S)
B.  16/1730Z
C.  15.1S
D.  57.0E
E.  FIVE/MET-9
F.  TOO WEAK
G.  IR/EIR
H.  REMARKS...RETRANSMISSIOIN. SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS
IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AGREES WHILE PT IS LESS THAN 1.0. FT IS BASED ON PT
DUE TO A LACK OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN
ISSUED UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...TURK