TCFA - 纽埃以西热带扰动11F(91P) - 21.3S 179.7W - 风场曾扫出过滤前烈风，两度TCFA

炎煌深沉

91P INVEST 230312 1800 18.0S 173.0W SHEM 15 0
91P INVEST 230312 1800 18.6S 173.1W SHEM 30 1004

炎煌深沉

      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.6S
173.1W, APPROXIMATELY 183 NM WEST OF NIUE ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH RAPIDLY ORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 120943Z ASCAT-C
BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
AROUND THE LLC. INVEST 91P IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KT)
VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
91P WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27
TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析T1.5，SSD分析维持T2.0

TPPS11 PGTW 121819
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91P (SW PAGO PAGO)
B. 12/1730Z
C. 18.15S
D. 173.16W
E. FIVE/GOES18
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

TXPS26 KNES 121829
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91P)
B.  12/1730Z
C.  18.3S
D.  173.1W
E.  FIVE/GOES-W
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.5 AND
THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO THE BANDING NOT BEING
CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...BROWN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析T2.0，SSD分析升至T2.5

TPPS11 PGTW 122358
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91P (NE OF TONGA)
B. 12/2330Z
C. 18.62S
D. 172.09W
E. FIVE/GOES18
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET/PT AGREE DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

TXPS26 KNES 130013
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91P)
B.  12/2330Z
C.  18.2S
D.  172.3W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/GMI
H.  REMARKS...5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT TREND. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    12/2257Z 18.2S 172.3W GMI
...COVERDALE

红豆棒冰冰

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 122334 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10F CENTRE [1010HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 23.5S
157.9W AT 122100UTC. TD10F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI VIS/EIR IMAGERY.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES SCATTERED TO THE FAR NORTH AND EAST OF THE
EXPOSED LLCC. TD10F LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
UPPER DIVERGENCE.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER WEAKENING.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY LOW.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY FOR TD10F.

*********************************************************************
*

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F CENTRE [1006HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.8S
172.3W AT 122100UTC. TD11F SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
HIMAWARI VIS/EIR IMAGERY.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE SUPPOSED LLCC. TD11F LIES
BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SYSTEM LIES IN A WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MAINTAIN A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WHILE MOVING EASTWARDS INTO UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN VERY LOW THEREAFTER.

*********************************************************************
*

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12F CENTRE [1006HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.7S
169.5E AT 122100UTC. TD12F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY.

SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION LIES NEAR THE LLCC BUT WITH POOR
ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS IT
SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

*********************************************************************
*

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

红豆棒冰冰

WTPS21 PGTW 130130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 18.6S 172.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 172.0W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 173.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 172.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 122 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH RAPIDLY ORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. A 122257Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT
SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY ALONG
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C)
SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 140130Z.//
NNNN

superstorm

91P目前涡度泛红辐合明显并且辐散较强。

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T2.0

TPPS11 PGTW 130305
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91P (NE OF TONGA)
B. 13/0230Z
C. 18.97S
D. 171.94W
E. FIVE/GOES18
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 57A/PBO CCC/ANMTN. CENTRAL DENSE COVER PATTERN RULES
YIELD A FT OF 2.0.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   12/2257Z  18.80S  172.33W  GPMI
   PETERSEN

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZMAR2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.6S 169.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 167.0E, APPROXIMATELY 92 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT METOP-C PASS DEPICT A DISORGANIZED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION. A 130030Z GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION AROUND THE CIRCULATION.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.6S 173.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 171.6W, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT,
LOW (5-10KT) VWS, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 130130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T2.0/2.0，SSD分析降至T2.0/2.5

TPPS11 PGTW 130557
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91P (NE OF TONGA)
B. 13/0530Z
C. 18.71S
D. 171.60W
E. FIVE/GOES18
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET/PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   13/0110Z  18.75S  172.03W  AMS2
   DESSINO

TXPS26 KNES 130601
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91P)
B.  13/0530Z
C.  18.6S
D.  171.1W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T2.0/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...3.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 2.0 BASED
ON A 24 HR SLOW DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS ALSO 2.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING