南印度洋特强热带气旋第7号“弗雷迪”(13U/11S.Freddy) - 传奇C5几番起落，重创马拉维

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维基百科路径图

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编扰资讯

97S INVEST 230203 1200 13.0S 116.0E SHEM 15 1006

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IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Friday 3 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Monday 6 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (11U) was located in the Indian Ocean near 12.8S 90.3E at 11am WST Friday, about 710 km west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. This low is currently slow moving, but is expected to drift eastwards over the weekend. From early next week, it is expected to turn back towards the southwest and conditions will become more favourable for it to develop.
The risk of this system developing into a tropical cyclone is Very Low over the weekend, increasing slightly to Low on Monday and Tuesday the 6th and 7th of February, and then increasing to Moderate on Wednesday the 8th of February. The risk will increase further later in the week, however the system may move westward out of the Western Region from Thursday onwards, so the overall risk of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Region remains Moderate on Thursday and Friday the 9th and 10th of February.
This system is not expected to pose a tropical cyclone threat to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, however it may produce increased winds and rainfall about the islands over the weekend and early next week.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday: Low

A second weak tropical low (12U) was located well to the northwest of the WA coastline near 16.0S 109.1E at 11am WST Friday, about 720km south-southeast of Christmas Island and 850km northwest of Exmouth. Conditions are unfavourable for this system to develop, and it is expected to remain slow moving and weaken further over the coming days. The probability of 12U developing into a tropical cyclone is Very Low.

A third tropical low (13U) is forecast to develop over open waters northwest of the Kimberley on Sunday or early next week. This system is likely to track to the west-southwest over open waters well north of the Pilbara coast through next week. Conditions are somewhat favourable for development, and the probability of this systme developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Low on Monday the 6th of February, and to Moderate from Wednesday the 8th of February to Friday the 10th of February.
Whether it develops or not, tropical low 13U will not pose a threat to the WA coast or Christmas Island.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday: Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%      Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%         High:Over 50%
The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.

superstorm

ECMWF06Z支持成旋并向西南行，但后期有可能与其它系统藤原。

红豆棒冰冰

今天上午ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Saturday 4 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 7 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (11U) was located in the Indian Ocean near 12.5S 89.5E at 11am WST Saturday, about 800 km west of the Cocos (Keeling) Island. This low is expected to move east from tonight, towards Cocos Island. It is expected to come close to Cocos Island on Monday, before turning back towards the west southwest from late Monday onwards. There is increasing risk of the system developing into a tropical cyclone early next week. The system ratings are Low for Sunday 5th February, increasing to Moderate on Monday through till Thursday 9th of February. The overall risk of this low being a tropical cyclone in the Region begin to ease from Friday 10th February onwards as the system moves further southwestwards.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday:Low
Monday:Moderate
Tuesday:Moderate

A second weak tropical low (12U) was located well to the northwest of the WA coastline near 17.0S 107E at 11am WST Saturday, about 740km south of Christmas Island and 930km northwest of Exmouth. Conditions are unfavourable for this system to develop. It is expected to move westwards and weaken further over the coming days. The probability of 12U developing into a tropical cyclone is Very Low.

A third tropical low (13U) is forecast to develop over open waters, west of the Browse Basin on Sunday or Monday. This low is likely to track to the west-southwest over open waters, staying well north of the Pilbara coast through next week. Conditions are somewhat favourable for development, and the probability of this system developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Low on Monday the 6th of February, and to Moderate from Wednesday the 8th of February to Saturday the 11th of February. The system is not expected to pose any dircet threat to the WA coast or Christmas Island.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Low
Tuesday:Low

红豆棒冰冰

ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.4S 89.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 91.2E, APPROXIMATELY 333 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 041532Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 041714Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A
CONSOLIDATED OVULAR CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VWS AND
WARM (27-28C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94S
WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.2S 107.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7S
117.6E, APPROXIMATELY 319 NM NORTHWESTWARD OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041350Z AMSU-B 89GHZ
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VWS
AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
97S WILL CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE
RECURVING SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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红豆棒冰冰

今天上午ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z预报2天内达到命名标准，西行过程中先加强后减弱

红豆棒冰冰

IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Sunday 5 February 2023
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 8 February 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical low (11U) was located in the Indian Ocean near 12.3S 94.3E at 11am WST Sunday, about 270 km west of the Cocos (Keeling) Island. The low was moving east at 26 kilometres per hour.

It is expected to pass close to the islands tonight or on Monday with increased risk of strong winds and rain impacts. There is increasing chance that it may develop into a tropical cyclone early in the week. The system ratings are Moderate on Monday 6th and Tuesday 7th February, increasing to High from Wednesday 8th February to Friday 10th February. Once it passes close to the islands, the low is expected to continue moving towards the east, before turning and moving towards the southwest, away from the islands, from late Tuesday onwards.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Moderate
Tuesday:Moderate
Wednesday:High

Tropical low (13U) is forecast to form over open waters, west of the Browse Basin on Monday. The low is likely to track west-southwest over open waters, staying well north of the Pilbara coast through next week. Conditions are favourable for development. The probability of this system developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Low on Tuesday 7th February, Moderate on Wednesday 8th February and High on Thursday and Friday, 9th and 10th February. The system is does not pose a direct threat to the WA coast or Christmas Island.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Low
Wednesday:Moderate

POCKETBOX

ABIO10 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/051400Z-051800ZFEB2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 95.8E, APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 041532Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 041714Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A
CONSOLIDATED OVULAR CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VWS AND
WARM (27-28C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94S
WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 118.9E APPROXIMATELY 441 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AN SCATTERED, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 050817Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE TO GOOD EFFECT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VWS AND WARM (28-29C) SST
OFFSET BY WEAK BUT DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A POINT SOURCE TO
THE WEST. ALL MAJOR GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONCUR
THAT INVEST 97S WILL TRANSIT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A SHORT PERIOD
BEFORE RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
MEDIUM.//
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