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[北半球大陆] 美墨交界处Kassandra(NA06-0124) - 登陆格陵兰 - SPC:ENH OPC:SW 60KT 968hPa

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发表于 2023-1-24 15:53 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 沙漠玫瑰 于 2023-1-28 23:14 编辑

Winter Storm To Dump Snow From Southern Plains To Midwest And Northeast
At a Glance
A winter storm is developing in the Southwest right now.
This storm will impact the Southern Plains, Midwest and Northeast through midweek.
Significant snowfall and gusty winds will hamper travel along the path of the storm.

A winter storm developing in the Southwest right now will spread snow and strong winds from the Southern Plains into the Midwest and Northeast through midweek.

This system has been named Winter Storm Kassandra by The Weather Channel.
https://weather.com/storms/winte ... s-midwest-northeast
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 楼主| 发表于 2023-1-24 16:03 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 沙漠玫瑰 于 2023-1-24 16:04 编辑

Current Radar, Alerts
Kassandra is dumping snowfall on the Southern Rockies right now.
DCT_SPECIAL3_1280x720.jpg
Winter storm warnings, winter storm watches and winter weather advisories have been issued by the National Weather Service along the current and future path of Kassandra.

Those alerts extend from the Southern Rockies, northwest Texas and Oklahoma into the Midwest, including Amarillo, Texas, Oklahoma City, St. Louis and Indianapolis. Expect hazardous travel conditions in some of these areas because of the snowfall.
DCT_SPECIAL8_1280x720.jpg
Here's a look at what's to come from Kassandra over the next few days.

Forecast Timing
Through Tuesday

The storm's snow, or rain changing to snow, will increase across the Southern Plains on Tuesday. Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Amarillo and Luboock, Texas, are among the cities that are forecast to see snowfall develop.

By Tuesday night, snow is likely to spread from northern Texas and Oklahoma into the Midwest, including St. Louis and Indianapolis.

Severe storms could spawn tornadoes in the warmer air ahead of this system along the Gulf Coast by later Tuesday and Tuesday night.
DCT_SPECIAL32_1280x720 (1).jpg
Tuesday's Forecast
(The green shadings depict where rain is expected. Areas that are shaded blue are expected to see snow. Purple-shaded locations may see either rain or snow. Areas in pink are expected to see sleet or freezing rain (ice).)

Wednesday-Wednesday Night

At least moderate snow and strong winds will push into the Great Lakes by Wednesday. Travel will be impacted by this combination in Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis and St. Louis.

In the Northeast, the Interstate 95 corridor from New York City to Philadelphia might see a brief period of snowfall before changing to rain. The Boston metro area could see light snowfall accumulations before changing to rain.

The interior Northeast can expect the most snowfall, although some areas on the southern fringe of the wintry weather might eventually change to a wintry mix, even rain.
DCT_SPECIAL34_1280x720 (2).jpg
Wednesday's Forecast
(The green shadings depict where rain is expected. Areas that are shaded blue are expected to see snow. Purple-shaded locations may see either rain or snow. Areas in pink are expected to see sleet or freezing rain (ice). )

Thursday

Kassandra will begin to pull away on Thursday, but snowfall and gusty winds could linger from northern New England into the eastern Great Lakes.
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 楼主| 发表于 2023-1-24 16:06 | 显示全部楼层
Forecast Snowfall Totals
Accumulating snow is expected in an area that extends from northwest Texas and Oklahoma northeastward to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys and southern Great Lakes. Snow totals in this corridor will be 1 to 5 inches. Localized totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible in locations that see the heaviest and most persistent snow.

Farther east, portions of upstate New York and northern New England are likely to pick up 6 inches or more of snowfall.
DCT_SPECIAL48_1280x720 (4).jpg
Snow,Rain Forecast
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 楼主| 发表于 2023-1-24 16:09 | 显示全部楼层
...A new storm system over the South expected to bring heavy snow to
portions of the Southern High Plains, Mid- Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast through midweek...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms and a threat of flash flooding can be
expected across portions of the Gulf Coast states and Lower Mississippi
Valley Tuesday through early Wednesday...

Some areas of New England may have lingering light snow today as the
coastal low exits the Canadian Maritimes Additionally, colder and drier
air will filter into the region within the gusty flow behind this system.
A developing winter storm across the South will lift northeast through the
Mid-South and into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states by Wednesday.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Gulf Coast, Lower
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast ahead of and along the
approaching cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has identified much of
the Gulf Coast as having an Enhanced Risk for severe weather through
Wednesday morning; while WPC has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall over
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and eastern Texas. The area of
convection will shift to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region on
Thursday, SPC has a Slight Risk from northern Florida to coastal Virginia
and WPC has a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for parts of the
Southeast. Strong winds and several tornadoes are expected, which includes
a threat for a strong tornado. Meanwhile, as much as 1 to 3 inches of rain
with locally heavier amounts are expected across areas of southeast Texas
through the lower Mississippi Valley, which may result in local areas of
flash flooding.

To the north, there will be adequate cold air present over the central and
north states for a swath of accumulating snow to near/north of the low
pressure center as it lifts north and east. This will include an area from
the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles through large areas of the Ohio Valley,
Lower Great Lakes region and northern Mid-Atlantic. Some of the highest
snow accumulations are expected to align over the Ozark Mountain region of
Missouri and Arkansas by Tuesday night through early Wednesday then
streaking north of the Ohio River through southeast Michigan, and into New
York and Pennsylvania on Wednesday afternoon and night. Amounts on the
order of 4 to 8 inches of snow with isolated heavier amounts are possible.
These heavier snows will be overspreading the remainder of the interior
Northeast Wednesday night as low pressure arrives.
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 楼主| 发表于 2023-1-24 16:10 | 显示全部楼层
.
92fndfd_init_2023012400.gif
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 楼主| 发表于 2023-1-24 16:14 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 240648

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE PLAINS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of
   south TX today. A potent upper-level cut-off low will move through
   the region, inducing moderate surface winds and low RH behind a cold
   front. Sustained winds around 15-25 kts collocated with RH generally
   around 15-25% are expected across the area. A more localized pocket
   of drier air is predicted to advect eastward through the lower Rio
   Grande Plains and might contribute to locally critical conditions;
   this might be most impactful during the 21-03z timeframe before the
   arrival of cooler temperatures (and higher RH) behind the primary
   cold front. Fuels across the region support locally critical
   conditions with ERCs of generally 75-90+, especially farther north.
   However, the overall threat may be tempered somewhat by ongoing
   precipitation. This is expected to continue for the next few hours
   and could yield around 0.2-0.3" by the start of the period. At this
   point, subsequent drying of 1-10-hr fuels is expected to be
   sufficient to yield critical fire-weather conditions later in the
   day.

   ..Flournoy/Moore.. 01/24/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
day1otlk_fire.gif
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 楼主| 发表于 2023-1-24 16:15 | 显示全部楼层
SPC AC 240541

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1141 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WESTERN
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected today from the middle to upper
   Texas Coast, spreading eastward across southern Louisiana and into
   coastal Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by
   Wednesday morning. Damaging winds and several tornadoes are
   anticipated. A few strong tornadoes are expected.

   ...Gulf Coast Region...
   An upper-level low over the southern Plains, and an associated
   upper-level trough extending southward into northern Mexico, will
   move eastward into central and south Texas today. A 70 to 90 knot
   mid-level speed max will translate eastward through the base of the
   trough, with the exit region of the jet overspreading the southern
   Plains this afternoon. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture
   advection will take place with the 60 Fahrenheit isodrosotherm
   reaching about 80 statute miles inland across the middle Texas coast
   by late morning. As surface temperatures warm, SBCAPE is forecast to
   increase to around 1000 J/kg in the vicinity of Victoria with weaker
   instability developing further inland. During the morning,
   thunderstorms will move eastward across the Texas Hill Country. By
   18Z, the storms will likely develop a severe threat, moving eastward
   into the western edge of the moist airmass.

   Near and ahead of the surface low, surface winds will be backed to
   the south and southeast. This combined with 50 to 70 knot low-level
   jet will create long and looped hodographs favorable for supercells
   and tornadoes. The Victoria, Texas 18Z RAP forecast sounding has 0-3
   km storm relative helicity near 350 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado
   threat could develop relatively early in the day. Around midday and
   throughout the afternoon, convective mode is expected to be
   supercellular, as a cluster of storms moves eastward across the
   Houston and Galveston areas. Strong speed shear, increasing from
   near 20 knots at the surface to 50 knots at 850 mb, will make a
   strong tornado possible with any supercell that becomes dominant.
   Wind damage and isolated large hail will also likely accompany
   supercells. The threat should spread eastward to the Beaumont/Port
   Arthur areas by late afternoon.

   The surface low will move northeastward into western Mississippi
   this evening as a line organizes ahead of a cold front across the
   lower Mississippi Valley. Some uncertainty exists concerning
   convective mode. The current thinking is that some cells near the
   Louisiana coast will remain supercellular and have a potential for
   tornadoes. This would be especially true if the conditional threat
   materializes of discrete cells developing ahead of the line. The
   wind-damage threat will likely increase as the squall-line moves to
   the central Gulf Coast around midnight. This line is forecast to
   move eastward to the western Florida Panhandle by late in the period
   and should maintain a wind-damage and tornado threat. There will be
   the possibility of a strong tornado, mainly due to strong low-level
   shear associated with the low-level jet.

   ..Broyles/Flournoy.. 01/24/2023
day1otlk_1200.gif
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 楼主| 发表于 2023-1-25 16:06 | 显示全部楼层
...STORM WARNING...
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW INLAND NEAR 38N77W 1003 MB. FROM 31N TO
40N W OF 71W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N63W 979 MB. WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT
WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 12 TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 36N TO 45N
BETWEEN 57W AND 64W WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 23 FT.
ELSEWHERE FROM 33N TO 55N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W WINDS 25 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 19 FT.
ocean.weather.gov_A_sfc_full_ocean_color_4.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2023-1-25 16:07 | 显示全部楼层
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EST Wed Jan 25 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 25 2023 - 12Z Fri Jan 27 2023

...Developing storm to have widespread impacts across large areas to the
east of the Mississippi River...

...Much more tranquil weather on tap for the western half of the nation...

The low pressure system lifting from the Gulf states and into the
Tennessee Valley early this morning is expected to deepen as it continues
to track northeast through the Ohio Valley and Lower Great today, then
reaching the Northeast by Thursday. This storm will be multifaceted and
have significant impacts across a large portion of the nation from the
Gulf coast into the Northeast. A well defined area of precipitation from
the Deep South, Midwest, Tennessee and Ohio Valley persisted overnight
will continue to expand northeastward with time.  Heavy rains, isolated
flash flooding and severe thunderstorms remain possible across portions of
the central Gulf coast spreading into the eastern Gulf coast and Southeast
today.  Heavy rains are also possible Wednesday into early Thursday across
the major urban corridor from Richmond, DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, NYC
into Boston.

On the north and northwest side of this storm, heavy snows are likely from
eastern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas, southern Missouri, southern
Illinois, southern Indiana, Ohio and parts of the Northeast today and then
pushing into northern New England by early Thursday morning. A large swath
of of Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories span from Texas
to Maine for the widespread snowfall accumulations of 4 to 8"+, with
locations in northern New England having the potential for accumulations
of 8 to 12". The snow will be lead to moderate or major impacts from the
Plains to New England over the next couple of days with snow covered
roads, reduced visibility resulting in dangerous traveling conditions.  In
addition, the combination of the heavy snow and gusty winds may result in
downed trees and power outages. This snowfall will bring some relief from
the "snow drought" for portions of the Mid-West, northern Mid-Atlantic,
New York State and central to northern New England where snowfall totals
this season are well below average.

In contrast, much of the western U.S. will have generally mild and dry
conditions. Some light to locally moderate snowfall amounts will be
possible through the Rockies and across the Northern Plains. No signs of
any additional precipitation for water soaked area of California through
the remainder of this week.

Campbell/Oravec
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 楼主| 发表于 2023-1-25 16:08 | 显示全部楼层
SPC AC 250552

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The potential for damaging thunderstorm winds will exist across
   parts of the Southeast today. A few tornadoes will be possible from
   the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia early in the day, and
   over the eastern Carolinas by late afternoon and evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad upper trough will be in place over much of the central and
   eastern CONUS today. An embedded shortwave trough will progress
   northeastward from the mid MS Valley across the OH Valley through
   the day, reaching the lower Great Lakes and Northeast tonight. At
   the surface, the primary surface low will likewise develop
   northeastward across the OH Valley through the day, with a trailing
   cold front expected to sweep east-southeastward over the Southeast
   and East Coast states through the period. A warm front is forecast
   to lift northward across the Carolinas this afternoon, with
   generally upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints in place across the
   warm sector.

   ...Florida Panhandle into Southern Georgia...
   A line of convection will likely be ongoing this morning across the
   FL Panhandle into southwestern GA. Even though MLCAPE is forecast to
   remain quite weak (generally 500 J/kg or less), low-level shear
   should be quite strong. Aided by a 45-55+ kt southerly low-level
   jet, 0-1 km SRH of 300-400+ m2/s2 should be common this morning
   across southern GA into the rest of the FL Panhandle ahead of the
   ongoing thunderstorms. This rather strong low-level shear will
   support a continued risk for tornadoes this morning across this
   region. Damaging winds with the line will also be possible given the
   enhanced low-level flow. Convection should eventually weaken with
   eastward extent across north FL and coastal/southeast GA this
   afternoon, as it outpaces the better low-level moisture return and
   encounters a less unstable boundary layer. Still, isolated damaging
   winds may occur even as thunderstorms weaken as they move across
   parts of the FL Peninsula.

   ...Carolinas...
   A plume of low to mid 60s surface dewpoints is expected to stream
   northward from the Atlantic across the eastern Carolinas by late
   this afternoon. A shallow, low-topped line of convection should
   spread eastward across this region through the evening while
   gradually strengthening as it encounters the greater surface
   dewpoints. Damaging wind potential is evident with the broken line,
   as 850 mb flow increases into the 50-60+ kt range and low-level
   shear likewise strengthens. 0-1 km shear of 300-400+ m2/s2 will
   easily support potential for embedded circulations and a few
   tornadoes within the line, especially across eastern/coastal NC this
   evening.

   ..Gleason/Flournoy/Moore.. 01/25/2023
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