阿拉弗拉海10U(93P) - 10.7S 134.1E

ygsj24

93P INVEST 230122 0000 11.5S 137.9E SHEM 15 0

红豆棒冰冰

今天上午ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z初始场有反应，预报其未来逐渐西行，但不支持显著发展；系集部分成员支持发展

红豆棒冰冰

BOM今天下午热带气旋展望显示编号为10U

IDD10610

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:29 pm CST on Sunday 22 January 2023
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 25 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak low (10U) was located near 11S 137E, about 170 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy at 1:30pm CST Sunday. It is expected to move west passing to the north of the Top End coast on Monday and then over the Timor Sea on Tuesday and then out of the region west of 125E on Wednesday. The low is expected to remain weak as it moves west on Monday and Tuesday. While some development is possible during Tuesday, it is unlikely to intensify significantly until it leaves the region.

There are no other significant lows expected in the region and the likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region remains Very Low for the next seven days


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2023-1-22 14:05
BOM今天下午热带气旋展望显示编号为10U

IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:11 pm WST on Sunday 22 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 25 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is expected to move west into the region from the Timor Sea on Wednesday 25 January. It is expected to then move west southwest to the north of Western Australia and gradually develop. By Friday conditions become more conducive for development as it moves towards the Pilbara or west Kimberley coast. While there is inherent uncertainty at this range, a coastal tropical cyclone impact by Saturday appears a plausible scenario.

The likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the region is Very Low through to Tuesday increasing to Low on Wednesday 25 January, then Moderate by late Thursday 26 January and High by late Friday 27 January and Saturday 28 January.


Likelihood of this being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Low

The monsoon trough is becoming more active across the central Indian Ocean north of 10S and west of 100E with evidence of a weak low forming near 8S 89E (outside the Australian region). This low, or another one yet to form may occur along this trough but at this stage any lows that do form are likely to remain outside the Australian region either to the north (10S) and/or to the west (90E). There is a small chance a low occurs in the far northwest of the region west of 100E and north of 12S, northwest of Cocos Islands by the middle of the week. The likelihood of this being a tropical cyclone in the region remains very low.

Otherwise there are not other significant tropical lows expected to be in the region in the next seven days.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z系集不少成员继续支持进一步发展

红豆棒冰冰

今天上午ASCAT风场遗憾未能完全扫中

红豆棒冰冰

IDD10610

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 23 January 2023
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 26 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak low (10U) was located near 11S 135E, about 100 kilometres north of Milingimbi, at 1:00pm CST Monday and moving west. It is expected to remain weak as it moves through the Timor Sea on Tuesday and then out of the region, west of 125E, on Wednesday. No other significant lows are expected in the region in the next seven days.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low

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IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 23 January 2023
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 26 January 2023.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is expected to move west into the region from the Timor Sea on Wednesday 25 January when it has a Low likelihood of being a tropical cyclone. This increases to Moderate on Thursday 26 January and High on Friday 27 January as it moves south towards the Pilbara or west Kimberley coast and strengthens. It is expected to cross the coast as a tropical cyclone on Saturday 28 January. The likelihood of it being a tropical cyclone then decreases to Low on Sunday 29 January and Very Low Monday 30 January as it moves inland and weakens.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Low
Thursday:Moderate

The monsoon trough is becoming more active across the central Indian Ocean to the northwest of Cocos Island. A tropical low may form along this trough but is expected to remain weak and outside of the Australian region.

No other significant tropical lows are expected to be in the region in the next seven days.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low

桑美和伊欧凯

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2023-1-23 16:51
IDD10610

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

提高了近岸加强的可能性

红豆棒冰冰

NRL及FNMOC均显示已撤编，但ECMWF系集部分成员仍然支持一定程度发展，看看稍后是否会重编/复编