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[2022] 2225号热带风暴“帕卡”(29W.Pakhar) - 短暂尝试构建微波风眼

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发表于 2022-12-9 01:16 | 显示全部楼层
PAGASA昨晚报文继续认定LPA,并预报其可能在48小时内发展为热带低压
WEATHER ADVISORY NO. 2
FOR: SHEAR LINE AND LOW PRESSURE AREA
ISSUED AT: 11:00 PM 2022 December 08

  AT 10:00 PM TODAY, THE LOW PRESSURE AREA (LPA) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT 735 KM EAST OF HINATUAN, SURIGAO DEL SUR (07.3°N, 132.9°E). THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 48 HOURS. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SHEAR LINE AND TROUGH OF LPA WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AT TIMES HEAVY RAINS OVER ILOCOS NORTE, CAGAYAN, APAYAO, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, ROMBLON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS, CARAGA, DAVAO REGION, NORTHERN MINDANAO, AND ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, FLOODING AND RAIN-INDUCED LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE HIGHLY OR VERY HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE HAZARDS AS IDENTIFIED IN HAZARD MAPS AND IN AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT ANTECEDENT RAINFALL. THE PUBLIC AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND MANAGEMENT OFFICES CONCERNED ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY MEASURES TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. PAGASA REGIONAL SERVICES DIVISIONS MAY ISSUE LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS, RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORM ADVISORIES, AND OTHER SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO THEIR AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY AS APPROPRIATE. THE NEXT WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 11:00 AM TOMORROW.
Advisory#2.pdf (190.22 KB, 下载次数: 6)
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-12-9 02:05 | 显示全部楼层
hwrf_mslp_wind_92W_30.png hwrf_satIR_92W_15.png

飓风模式HWRF首报预测巅峰达到C4强度
2018 永不磨灭的回忆
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发表于 2022-12-9 02:27 | 显示全部楼层
GFS 12Z继续预报菲东转向路径,巅峰约965百帕;系集绝大多数成员亦预报菲东转向路径

gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_16.png
92W_tracks_latest.png
WP92_2022120812_GEFS_0-120h_large.png
WP92_2022120812_GEFS_large.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-12-9 03:41 | 显示全部楼层
JMA最新予想天气图预报+24h升格TD,+48h维持TD大致西北移动
20221208190531_0_Z__C_010000_20221208120000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas24_JCP600x512_JRcolor.png
20221208193331_0_Z__C_010000_20221208120000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas48_JCP600x512_JRcolor.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-12-9 04:11 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 12Z决定报支持成台,巅峰约992百帕;系集部分成员继续支持成台

ecmwf_mslp_wind_wpac_39.png
wpac.png
eastasia.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-12-9 05:03 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2022-12-9 09:46 编辑

JMA 18Z维持LPA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 08N 131E WNW SLOWLY.
ASAS_COLOR_202212081800.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-12-9 09:52 | 显示全部楼层
GFS 18Z继续预报菲东转向路径,巅峰约965百帕;系集各成员在路径预报上已趋于一致

gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_15.png
92W_tracks_latest.png
WP92_2022120818_GEFS_0-120h_large.png
WP92_2022120818_GEFS_large.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-12-9 09:55 | 显示全部楼层
HWRF 18Z继续预报菲东转向路径,巅峰约944百帕

hwrf_mslp_wind_92W_29.png
hwrf_mslp_wind_92W_32.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-12-9 10:04 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 18Z报有所调弱

ecmwf_mslp_wind_wpac_21.png
wpac.png
eastasia.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-12-9 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
JMA 00Z维持LPA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 09N 130E WNW SLOWLY.
ASAS_COLOR_202212090000.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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