|
|
ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZDEC2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6N
137.6E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON THE EASTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. A 070044Z ASCAT METOP-B
SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE
VORTICES SCATTERED THROUGHOUT IT WITH 15-20 KNOT WIND FIELDS (WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF 25 KNOTS) ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE LARGER LLC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAIR CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 92W
WITH A POINT SOURCE ABOVE THE SYSTEM, LOW (05-10KT) VWS, AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 92W TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. |
-
|
/6 
发表于 2022-12-7 00:26
楼主
发表于 2022-12-7 06:11
发表于 2022-12-7 11:10
