背风群岛东北99L - 29.0N 49.3W - NHC:50%

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 06Z系集多数成员均预报回旋后大致东北移动

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
845 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development
and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the next couple of
days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low will move northeastward
over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting
subtropical or tropical development of the system.  Additional
information on this low, including warnings, can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9
PM EST tonight, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

wwwawa

...ATLC STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW PRES NEAR 26N54W 1000 MB MOVING SE 8 KT. WITHIN
31N47W TO 31N57W TO 28N59W TO 25N58W TO 29N45W TO 31N47W NE WINDS
30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 28N39W TO 31N45W
TO 27N61W TO 23N59W TO 20N51W TO 26N49W TO 28N39W WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT IN NE SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
31N35W TO 29N60W TO 30N69W TO 19N68W TO 18N35W TO 31N35W...
INCLUDING IN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO
13 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.21 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 29N54.5W 987 MB. WITHIN 30N55W
TO 31N54W TO 31N57W TO 30N59W TO 29N59W TO 29N57W TO 30N55W N TO
NE WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N45W
TO 31N54W TO 29N58W TO 30N64W TO 26N59W TO 26N54W TO 31N45W NW
WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N41W TO
29N56W TO 31N59W TO 30N69W TO 24N61W TO 24N46W TO 31N41W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 31N35W TO 24N55W TO 31N71W TO 25N74W TO 18N48W TO 07N35W
TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 29N54.5W 986 MB. LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 28.5N50W 982 MB. WITHIN 31N50W
TO 31N59W TO 30N63W TO 25N60W TO 27N57W TO 28N53W TO 31N50W N TO
NE WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 TO 28 FT. WITHIN 26N46W TO 29N48W
TO 26N50W TO 25N52W TO 24N52W TO 23N48W TO 26N46W SW WINDS 30 TO
35 KT. SEAS 20 TO 23 FT IN W SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N39W TO
28N55W TO 30N66W TO 25N65W TO 19N54W TO 20N41W TO 31N39W WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 31N35W TO
31N64W TO 26N76W TO 19N68W TO 16N56W TO 22N35W TO
31N35W...INCLUDING IN CARIBBEAN AND PASSAGES...WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.

wwwawa

...ATLC STORM WARNING...
.COMPLEX LOW PRES NEAR 27N54W 1000 MB MOVING NE 8 KT. WITHIN
31N47W TO 30N58W TO 27N58W TO 30N52W TO 28N49W TO 29N45W TO
31N47W NE TO E WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 31N43W TO 28N50W TO 31N60W TO 28N62W TO 21N55W TO 19N48W
TO 31N43W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT IN NE SWELL.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 31N35W TO 29N47W TO 30N71W TO 19N69W TO
15N48W TO 18N35W TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN N TO NE SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST COMPLEX LOW PRES WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR
28.5N54W 990 MB. WITHIN 31N50.5W TO 31N53.5W TO 31N55W TO
30N54.5W TO 31N53.5W TO 31N51W TO 31N50.5W NE TO E WINDS 40 TO 50
KT. SEAS 23 TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N45W TO 31N59W TO
27N58W TO 26N55W TO 27N51W TO 31N45W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15
TO 22 FT IN NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 27N46W TO 31N41W TO 29N55W
TO 31N68W TO 25N64W TO 21N44W TO 27N46W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
12 TO 18 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 31N35W TO
24N58W TO 31N63W TO 25N75W TO 17N61W TO 19N45W TO
31N35W...INCLUDING IN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 28N54W 983 MB. WITHIN 31N56W TO
31N58W TO 30N58W TO 29N57W TO 30N57W TO 31N56W N TO NE WINDS 40
TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 29N51W TO 31N54W TO
31N62W TO 28N62W TO 24N57W TO 24N52W TO 29N51W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 15 TO 26 FT IN N SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 26N48W TO 31N40W
TO 30N67W TO 21N59W TO 20N46W TO 21N42W TO 26N48W WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 11 TO 22 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
31N35W TO 31N73W TO 25N76W TO 19N69W TO 18N62W TO 18N45W TO
31N35W...INCLUDING IN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 14 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 30N48W 978 MB. WITHIN 31N47W TO
31N49W TO 31N50W TO 30N51W TO 30N49W TO 29N49W TO 31N47W N TO NE
WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 26N37W TO
31N45W TO 29N49W TO 23N52W TO 21N45W TO 26N37W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 16 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N58W TO 23N61W TO
19N56W TO 18N44W TO 24N35W TO 31N35W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11
TO 22 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 31N35W TO 23N61W TO 31N72W TO
26N77W TO 15N60W TO 21N35W TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT IN NE SWELL.

wwwawa

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized  
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for development and a subtropical or tropical
storm could form within the next day or two.  By Thursday night
or early Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler waters
and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting the chance for
additional subtropical or tropical development of the system.  
Additional information on this low, including warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 9 AM EST Wednesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Brown

wwwawa

...ATLC STORM WARNING...
.ATLC LOW PRES NEAR 27N53W 995 MB. WITHIN 31N45W TO 29N53W TO
31N56W TO 27N58W TO 25N56W TO 26N52W TO 31N45W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 30N43W TO 30N64W TO 26N64W
TO 22N60W TO 21N52W TO 23N45W TO 30N43W WINDS 25 TO 350 KT. SEAS
11 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N71W TO
19N68W TO 18N50W TO 08N35W TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC
EXPOSURES AND PASSAGES...WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
28N54W 987 MB. WITHIN 31N52W TO 31N55W TO 30N56W TO 31N55W TO
31N52W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN
31N45W TO 29N55W TO 31N59W TO 27N58W TO 25N54W TO 31N45W WINDS
30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN
31N35W TO 27N47W TO 31N71W TO 24N74W TO 17N48W TO 07N35W TO
31N35W...INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC EXPOSURES AND PASSAGES...WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
28N54W 986 MB. WITHIN 29N49W TO 31N52W TO 31N60W TO 27N59W TO
24N55W TO 24N51W TO 29N49W NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO
26 FT. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 28N43W TO 31N39W TO 31N68W TO 21N66W
TO 19N44W TO 28N43W WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 20 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 31N35W TO 28N74W TO 25N75W TO 17N61W
TO 17N46W TO 22N38W TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC EXPOSURES
AND PASSAGES ...WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
30N48W 983 MB. WITHIN 30N38W TO 31N54W TO 27N55W TO 25N49W TO
23N47W TO 25N38W TO 30N38W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N71W TO 22N70W TO 17N60W TO
18N43W TO 23N35W TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC EXPOSURES AND
PASSAGES...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA...WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N75W TO 18N68W TO 13N56W TO 20N35W TO
31N35W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

普通的台风迷

wwwawa 发表于 2022-12-7 12:39
...ATLC STORM WARNING...
.ATLC LOW PRES NEAR 27N53W 995 MB. WITHIN 31N45W TO 29N53W TO
31N56W TO  ...

未来能发展成18L吗？

wwwawa

...ATLC STORM WARNING...
.ATLC LOW PRES NEAR 28N53W 994 MB. WITHIN 31N51W TO 31N56W TO
30N56W TO 30N55W TO 31N53W TO 31N51W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 22
TO 32 FT. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 31N45W TO 30N54W TO 31N58W TO 27N58W
TO 25N52W TO 28N50W TO 31N45W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N71W TO 19N67W TO
17N50W TO 09N46W TO 07N35W TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC
EXPOSURES AND PASSAGES...WINDS 20 TO 3O KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
29N52W 983 MB. WITHIN 29N47W TO 31N49W TO 30N60W TO 26N58W TO
23N50W TO 25N47W TO 29N47W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 28 FT.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 31N38W TO 31N69W TO 25N69W TO 20N63W TO
18N49W TO 23N40W TO 31N38W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 20 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N73W TO 24N74W TO 19N66W
TO 16N47W TO 08N35W TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC EXPOSURES
AND PASSAGES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
30N48W 980 MB. WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N50W TO 28N51W TO 27N46W TO
23N47W TO 24N37W TO 31N35W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 26 FT.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N72W TO 19N68W TO 15N55W TO
22N35W TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC EXPOSURES AND
PASSAGES...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 20 FT. REMAINDER OF
AREA...WITHIN 31N35W TO 29N78W TO 12N59W TO 17N35W TO 31N35W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MAINLY N SWELL.

wwwawa

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 900 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. This activity has become somewhat better organized
this morning, though frontal features remain attached to the low.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development
and a subtropical or tropical storm could form within the next day
or so.  By Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler
waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting the chance
for additional subtropical or tropical development of the system.  
Additional information on this low, including warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 9 PM EST Wednesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin

ygsj24

195
ABNT20 KNHC 080122
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
825 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development over the central Atlantic.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 950 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands is producing an extensive area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Although this system may acquire some
subtropical characteristics tonight and Thursday, it is unlikely to
become completely detached from a frontal zone.  By Friday, the low
will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a
mid-latitude trough, limiting the chance for additional subtropical
or tropical development of the system.  Additional information on
this low, including warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.  The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EST Thursday,
or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch