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[2022] 背风群岛东北99L - 29.0N 49.3W - NHC:50%

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5970

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强台风

13W.LUPIT

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5970
发表于 2022-12-5 22:39 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2022-12-14 08:45 编辑

99L INVEST 221205 1200 25.1N 55.3W ATL 30 1004

20221205.1400.goes-16.ir.99L.INVEST.30kts.1004mb.25.1N.55.3W.100pc.jpg

two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png

1. A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic about 750 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some
subtropical characteristics while it drifts northeastward during the
next few days.  By Thursday night or Friday, however, the low is
expected to move over cooler waters, ending its chances of becoming
a subtropical cyclone.  Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.  The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EST today or
earlier.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 99L

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The wind blows.
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4905

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风吹过城市的角落~

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4905
发表于 2022-12-5 22:47 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 renzhetegong 于 2022-12-5 22:51 编辑

数值预报认为99L将呈现明显副热带特征

19.phase2.zoom.png
28.phase2.zoom.png
Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some
subtropical characteristics
while it drifts northeastward during the
next few days.  By Thursday night or Friday, however, the low is
expected to move over cooler waters
, ending its chances of becoming
a subtropical cyclone.  
2018 永不磨灭的回忆
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发表于 2022-12-5 22:52 | 显示全部楼层

短期内和西风主体之间有暖脊隔开

本帖最后由 wwwawa 于 2022-12-5 22:55 编辑

gfs_ir_atl_fh1-115.gif gfs_z500_mslp_atl_fh0-240.gif
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发表于 2022-12-6 10:41 | 显示全部楼层
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW S OF AREA NEAR 26N58W 1002 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. WITHIN 420 NM
N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 27N55W 999 MB. WITHIN 660 NM N...600 NM
NE...AND 540 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 19
FT...HIGHEST NEAR 31N.
.42 HOUR FORECAST LOW 29N55W 986 MB. WITHIN 300 NM N AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 28 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 29N55W 984 MB. WITHIN 420 NM N AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
720 NM N AND NE...AND 600 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS
10 TO 23 FT...HIGHEST NEAR CENTER.
A_sfc_full_ocean_color.png
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发表于 2022-12-6 10:43 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/50%

本帖最后由 wwwawa 于 2022-12-6 10:44 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large and complex area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics
while it meanders generally northeastward during the
next few days.  By Friday, the low is expected to move over cooler
waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting potential
of tropical transition after that time.  Additional information on
this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EST
Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin
two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d1.png
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发表于 2022-12-6 14:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 wwwawa 于 2022-12-6 14:02 编辑

...ATLC STORM WARNING...
.ATLC LOW PRES NEAR 27N56W 1001 MB. WITHIN 31N50W TO 31N55W TO
28N58W TO 29N55W TO 28N51W TO 29N47W TO 31N50W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT.
SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 29N42W TO 31N45W TO 31N60W
TO 25N64W TO 22N58W TO 25N55W TO 29N42W WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS
11 TO 14 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N73W TO
24N74W TO 13N56W TO 16N44W TO 12N35W TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN
PASSAGES AND ATLANTIC EXPOSURES...WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
27N56W 993 MB. WITHIN 31N47W TO 30N53W TO 31N58W TO 28N58W TO
26N56W TO 31N47W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 31N44W TO 31N64W TO 23N63W TO 21N59W TO
22N46W TO 31N44W WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER
OF AREA...WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N72W TO 20N69W TO 17N51W TO 07N35W
TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN PASSAGES AND ATLANTIC EXPOSURES...WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
27N56W 986 MB. WITHIN 31N55W TO 31N57W TO 30N57W TO 30N58W TO
30N57W TO 31N55W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 31N46W TO 30N55W TO 29N56W TO 31N60W TO
30N62W TO 26N57W TO 31N46W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 21 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 31N35W TO 31N72W TO 20N68W TO 16N48W
TO 07N35W TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC EXPOSURES AND
PASSAGES...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
28N55W 985 MB. WITHIN 28N49W TO 31N52W TO 31N63W TO 25N59W TO
24N53W TO 25N50W TO 28N49W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 31N39W TO 31N69W TO 25N71W TO 19N61W TO
20N45W TO 31N39W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 20 FT. REMAINDER
OF AREA...WITHIN 31N35W TO 28N75W TO 20N69W TO 17N46W TO 22N37W
TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC EXPOSURES AND PASSAGES...
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
A_sfc_full_ocean_color.png A_24hrsfc.gif A_48hrsfc.gif
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发表于 2022-12-6 17:30 | 显示全部楼层
今天上午ASCAT风场扫描显示北侧有成片30kt风旗

20221206.0024.mtb.ASCAT.wind.99L.INVEST.35kts-1001mb.267N.560W.25km.jpg
20221206.0024.mtb.ASCAT.wind.99L.INVEST.35kts-1001mb.267N.560W.25km.noqc.jpg
20221206.0116.mtc.ASCAT.wind.99L.INVEST.35kts-1001mb.267N.560W.25km.jpg
20221206.0116.mtc.ASCAT.wind.99L.INVEST.35kts-1001mb.267N.560W.25km.noqc.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-12-6 18:00 | 显示全部楼层
...ATLC STORM WARNING...
.ATLC LOW PRES NEAR 26N57W 1001 MB. WITHIN 31N50W TO 31N56W TO
28N59W TO 26N59W TO 29N53W TO 29N47W TO 31N50W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 31N45W TO 31N60W TO 23N63W
TO 23N56W TO 27N55W TO 27N45W TO 31N45W WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS
11 TO 15 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 31N35W TO 29N42W TO
31N72W TO 23N73W TO 13N56W TO 11N35W TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN
ATLANTIC EXPOSURES AND PASSAGES...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
27N56W 991 MB. WITHIN 31N53W TO 31N57W TO 30N58W TO 29N58W TO
29N57W TO 30N56W TO 31N53W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 TO 28 FT.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 31N46W TO 30N53W TO 31N59W TO 31N63W TO
26N59W TO 26N55W TO 31N46W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 23 FT.
WITHIN 31N35W TO 28N48W TO 31N71W TO 25N74W TO 17N48W TO 07N35W
TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN PASSAGES AND ATLANTIC EXPOSURES...WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
28N55W 987 MB. WITHIN 28N49W TO 31N51W TO 31N63W TO 25N60W TO
24N51W TO 28N49W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 31N39W TO 31N68W TO 26N70W TO 20N57W TO
21N46W TO 31N39W WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. REMAINDER
OF AREA...WITHIN 31N35W TO 28N74W TO 19N68W TO 17N46W TO 22N38W
TO 31N35W...INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC EXPOSURES AND PASSAGES...WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
28N54W 985 MB. WITHIN 28N48W TO 31N51W TO 30N63W TO 26N60W TO
24N53W TO 24N49W TO 28N48W 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 26 FT. WITHIN
31N38W TO 30N69W TO 25N70W TO 19N62W TO 21N43W TO
31N38W...INCLUDING IN ATLANTIC EXPOSURES AND PASSAGES..WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 20 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 31N35W
TO 28N75W TO 19N68W TO 17N46W TO 23N35W TO 31N35W WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
A_sfc_full_ocean_color.png
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发表于 2022-12-6 22:21 | 显示全部楼层
后期性质存疑
47.phase1.zoom.png
47.phase2.zoom.png
47.track (1).png
47.track.current (1).png
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发表于 2022-12-6 22:25 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 wwwawa 于 2022-12-6 23:45 编辑


后期为深暖心温气
gfs_ir_atl_fh1-115(1).gif
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