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[2023] TCFA - 圣诞岛以东热带低压(94S) - 东行影响圣诞岛

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热带低压

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发表于 2022-11-13 13:15 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2022-11-28 10:03 编辑

94S INVEST 221113 0000 9.0S 93.0E SHEM 15 0

20221113.0445.goes-13.vis.m.94S.INVEST.15kts.0mb.9S.93E.pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
炎煌深沉 + 3 + 3

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强台风

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发表于 2022-11-13 13:44 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 superstorm 于 2022-11-13 13:47 编辑

42.track.current.png 94S_tracks_latest.png
数值预报东北偏东行,但不支持成旋。
一路伴盈,形盈不离,如盈随形,盈随心动img]https://bbs.typhoon.org.cn/static/image/smiley/default/cry.gif[/img]
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发表于 2022-11-13 16:01 | 显示全部楼层
BOM今天下午热带气旋展望有所反应,ECMWF 00Z系集少数成员支持较明显发展
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:03 pm WST on Sunday 13 November 2022
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 16 November 2022.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows in the region at present.

A weak tropical low may form south of Indonesia and to the northwest of Christmas Island by mid week. There is a chance that the low could move towards the southeast, close to the far northern parts of the region by next weekend, and the potential for development into a tropical cyclone is low.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
sio.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-11-13 16:51 | 显示全部楼层
EC和GFS本报预测趋向印尼爪哇岛附近
最新台风动向欢迎加入{气象乐园}群55541191
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发表于 2022-11-14 15:13 | 显示全部楼层
BMKG和BOM今天热带气旋展望均提及94S
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued 14 November 2022, 09.00 Western Indonesia Time

Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Invest 94S with minimum pressure 1008 mb is observed in Indian Ocean near 8.3 S 97.3 E, about 777 km southwest of Bengkulu, and moving to east-southeast.

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Tuesday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Wednesday (tomorrow +1): small possibility
Thursday (tomorrow +2) : small possibility
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 14 November 2022
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 17 November 2022.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region at present.

A weak tropical low is slowly forming west-southwest of Sumatra and to the northwest of Christmas Island (to the north of the Western Region). From Thursday there is a chance that the low could move into the northern parts of the Western Region before taking a westward track late in the week and during the weekend. The environment is not conducive to significant development of this tropical low, and the risk it will develop to become a tropical cyclone is Very Low.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-11-14 15:16 | 显示全部楼层
GFS 00Z预报有机会稍微加强,系集也有部分成员支持一定程度发展

gfs_mslp_wind_io_19.png
SI94_2022111400_GEFS_large.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-11-14 22:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-11-15 00:21 编辑

ABIO10 PGTW 141330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/141330Z-141830ZNOV2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 74S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5S
95.6E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED SHORTWAVE
INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 141200Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICTS A WEAKLY DEFINED
LLCC WITH SPARSE CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTEROMETRY DATA
SHOWS BROAD TURNING AND 25-30KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
WARM (28-29C) SST, OFFSET BY MODERATE-HIGH (20-30KT) VWS AND WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK TOWARDS AUSTRALIA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
17 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

abpwsair.jpg
20221114.1200.f17.91h.94S.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.7S.95.7E.095pc.jpg

ABIO10 PGTW 141330 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
CORRECTED/REISSUED/141330Z-141800ZNOV2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5S
95.6E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 141200Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICTS A
WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC WITH SPARSE CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS BROAD TURNING AND 25-30KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SST, OFFSET BY MODERATE-HIGH (20-30KT)
VWS AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS AUSTRALIA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INVEST AREA AND VALID TIME.
NNNN
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发表于 2022-11-15 00:57 | 显示全部楼层
昨晚ASCAT风场扫描

20221114.1441.mtb.ASCAT.wind.94S.INVEST.20kts-1009mb.63S.966E.25km.jpg
20221114.1441.mtb.ASCAT.wind.94S.INVEST.20kts-1009mb.63S.966E.25km.noqc.jpg
20221114.1533.mtc.ASCAT.wind.94S.INVEST.20kts-1009mb.63S.966E.25km.jpg
20221114.1533.mtc.ASCAT.wind.94S.INVEST.20kts-1009mb.63S.966E.25km.noqc.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-11-15 13:55 | 显示全部楼层
今天上午ASCAT风场扫描

20221115.0236.mtc.ASCAT.wind.94S.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.65S.975E.25km.jpg
20221115.0236.mtc.ASCAT.wind.94S.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.65S.975E.25km.noqc.jpg
20221115.0324.mtb.ASCAT.wind.94S.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.65S.975E.25km.jpg
20221115.0324.mtb.ASCAT.wind.94S.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.65S.975E.25km.noqc.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-11-15 14:37 | 显示全部楼层
BMKG和BOM今天热带气旋展望继续提及94S
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Tuesday, 15th November 2022 10.00 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
None.

Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Low 94S with minimum pressure 1008 mb is observed in Indian ocean near 6.4 S 96.9E, Southwest of Bengkulu , and moving east-southeastward

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Wednesday (tomorrow) : small  possibility
Thrusday (tomorrow +1): small  possibility
Friday (tomorrow +2) : small possibility
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Tuesday 15 November 2022
for the period until midnight WST Friday 18 November 2022.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region at present.

A weak tropical low is slowly forming west-southwest of Sumatra and to the northwest of Christmas Island (to the north of the Western Region). From Thursday there is a chance that the low could move into the northern parts of the Western Region before taking a westward track late in the week and during the weekend. The environment is not conducive to significantly develop this tropical low, and the risk it will develop to become a tropical cyclone is Very Low.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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