迪戈加西亚东南中等热带风暴第1号“艾什莉”(02S.Ashley) - 南半球新风季首个命名TC

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z继续分析TOO WEAK

TPXS10 PGTW 281514
A. TYPHOON 02S (ASHLEY)
B. 28/1445Z
C. 15.23S
D. 74.55E
E. THREE/MET9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z继续分析TOO WEAK

TPXS10 PGTW 282152
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY)
B. 28/2100Z
C. 15.04S
D. 72.78E
E. THREE/MET9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HEINS

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z发出最后一报分析

TPXS10 PGTW 290126 COR
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02S (ASHLEY)
B. 29/0000Z
C. 16.13S
D. 73.09E
E. THREE/MET9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL FIX
ISSUED BY JTWC ON THIS AREA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HEINS

红豆棒冰冰

MFR昨晚热带天气讨论继续提及Ashley

Convective activity was mainly concentrated over the extreme northeast of the basin. There is no
more convective activity associated with the residual low ASHLEY.
The residual low ASHLEY is located at 10UTC around 16.9°S / 72.3°E, with a central pressure of
1006hPa. The partial HY-2C pass at 06h30UTC indicates maximum winds in the southern quadrant
of 20-25kt. The residual minimum will continue to move southwestward over the next 24 hours and
then turn further south before filling in over the next 48 hours. Circulating in dry air and with strong
wind shear, there is no risk of re-intensification of the system.
Over the next 5 days, there is no risk of a tropical storm forming over the basin.

红豆棒冰冰

MFR今晚热带天气讨论中继续提及Ashley

The basin currently display a classic winter pattern with the presence of trans-equatorial trade
winds, west of 63°E. At present, there is almost no convective activity over the entire basin.
We notice the presence of the dissipating low ASHLEY, centered around 21.5S / 69.1E at 09 UTC,
which presents average mean speed wind of about 25kt in the southwest semicircle of the low-level
clockwise circulation, according to the 0419Z ASCAT swath. The estimated central pressure is 1010
hPa at 09 UTC. In the short term, the remains of ASHLEY will evacuate at the beginning of the
weekend towards the mid-latitudes, in front of a low level trough, and thus should not concern
directly the Mascarene archipelago.
At the end of the weekend, the basin pattern could evolve progressively into a Near Equatorial
Trough (NET), due to a strengthening of the surface winds near the equator, thanks to the
circulation of a Rossby equatorial wave, crossed with a Kelvin wave and the emergence of a new
MJO phase. This dynamic pattern, should reinforce the low-level vorticity over the east of this TPE
and thus give rise to a new surface precursor for a possible future cyclogenesis phase.
Over the next five days, low level surface environmental conditions should remain good. However,
it will be necessary to count on a moderate or even strong Eastward upper shear, present on the
northern edge of the near equatorial ridge in the middle and upper troposphere.
The main guidelines do not suggest any significant deepening until next Wednesday. The European
and American deterministic models suggest at most strong breeze force 6 (25kt) by gradient effect
in the southern semicircle of the system. The European Ensemble model (EPS) suggest a low
probability of deepening from next Tuesday, and the American one present a significant dispersion
of the ensemble members pressure centers digging over the extreme Northeast of the basin.
Thus for the next five days, the risk of formation of a tropical storm is very low from tuesday
on the extreme North-Est of the basin.

红豆棒冰冰

MFR今晚热带天气讨论中不再提及Ashley

The basin is in winter configuration with the presence of trans-equatorial trade winds over the entire
width of the basin. The moderate convective activity is concentrated essentially on the eastern end
of the basin.
Over the next five days, the configuration of the basin will evolve into a Near Equatorial Trough
(NET) defining a large area of low pressure over the eastern end of the basin, under the main
impulse of equatorial Rossby wave. Within this large area, the models suggest the establishment of
a weak vorticity whose potential for evolution remains very low for the moment.
Thus for the next five days, the risk of formation of a tropical storm is very low from
Thursday on the extreme North-Est of the basin.