迪戈加西亚东南中等热带风暴第1号“艾什莉”(02S.Ashley) - 南半球新风季首个命名TC

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T2.0

TPXS10 PGTW 271541
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY)
B. 27/1445Z
C. 13.17S
D. 79.07E
E. FIVE/GOES-IO
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED NEAR COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET & PT
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

炎煌深沉

WTIO30 FMEE 271806
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/1/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION 2022/09/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 78.1 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/09/28 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/09/28 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 0

36H: 2022/09/29 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/09/29 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2022/09/30 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OF TROPICAL STORM
ASHLEY HAS CONTINUED WITH SOMETIMES SLIGHTLY COLDER TOPS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LOCALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE LAST PARTIAL ASCAT PASS STILL
NOTES WIND VALUES AROUND 35KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, BUT VALUES
OF 40KT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE UNSAMPLED SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS FOR A 3.0- SHEAR SYSTEM CONFIRMS THESE VALUES (THE PREVIOUS
12 HOURS VALUES HAVE BEEN REVISED UPWARDS).

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
DRIVES THE STEERING FLOW IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD, BECOMING
MORE NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST ORIENTED. ASHLEY IS THEREFORE FOLLOWING A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THEREAFTER WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE STRUCTURE
TENDS MORE TOWARDS A TROUGH OF LOW AND MEDIUM TROPOSPHERES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ASHLEY IS CURRENTLY AT ITS PEAK AND SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY LOSE INTENSITY. INDEED, THE STRONG SHEAR AND THE
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT THE CONVECTION AND WILL FAVOR THE
EVOLUTION IN RESIDUAL LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 36H.

ASHLEY DOES NOT THREATEN POPULATED AREAS.=

炎煌深沉

WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 78.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 78.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 14.2S 76.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 15.3S 73.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 78.0E.
27SEP22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER DUE TO HIGH NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SYSTEM HAS
PROGRESSED INTO GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW
BELOW 26C, INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, ALL LEADING TO THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF 02S BY TAU
24 IF NOT SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS AS-WELL AS RELIABLE MODEL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY RESPECTIVELY, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
EACH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

炎煌深沉

WTIO30 FMEE 280021
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/1/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION 2022/09/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 77.8 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/09/28 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 0

24H: 2022/09/29 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2022/09/29 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/09/30 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

THE SHEARED PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH
A LOCALIZATION OF THE CONVECTION THAT REMAINS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE LAST AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS ALLOWS TO NOTE A WEAKENED
MID-TROPOSPHERE CIRCULATION WHILE THE LOW LAYER CIRCULATION ALLOWS A
LOCALIZATION OF THE CENTER ONLY SLIGHTLY PRECISE. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS
OF ASHLEY IS SEEN TO BE DECREASING BUT BY INERTIA WE CAN STILL
ESTIMATE WINDS OF ABOUT 35KT, LEAVING ASHLEY STILL AT THE STAGE OF A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DRIVES THE STEERING FLOW WAS LESS MARKED THAN
EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, ASHLEY HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST
FEW MOMENTS. THIS SLOWING DOWN IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND ASHLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRACK GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS
THE SOUTH-WEST FOR THE NEXT 48H. THEREAFTER WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM, THE STRUCTURE TENDS TO A TROUGH OF LOW AND MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERES NOT ALLOWING ANY MORE THE FOLLOW-UP IN TROPICAL SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ASHLEY IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND THIS
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE. INDEED, THE STRONG SHEAR AND THE
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE CONVECTION AND TO
FAVOUR THE EVOLUTION IN REMNANT LOW FOR THE NEXT 36H. MOREOVER,
ASHLEY IS TRANSITING OVER WATERS WITH INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL.

ASHLEY DOES NOT THREATEN POPULATED AREAS.=

桑美和伊欧凯

assonll 发表于 2022-9-26 17:19
可惜了，要是早一天编号，或许以现在的强度混个TD不成问题

南半球淡季，反应慢一些，看云图编扰时给02S完全没问题好在MFR给予了命名

POCKETBOX

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王 慧  签发：向纯怡  2022 年 09 月 28 日 10 时
“ASHLEY”减弱为热带低压

时       间：28日08时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“ASHLEY”，ASHLEY

中心位置：南纬14.2度、东经77.8度

强度等级：热带低压

最大风力：7级（15米/秒，相当于我国的热带低压级）

中心气压：1001百帕

参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约2250公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“ASHLEY”由9级减弱到7级

预报结论：“ASHLEY”减弱为热带低压，将以每小时25-30公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

（这是关于“ASHLEY”的最后一期监测公报）

“伊恩”向北偏东方向移动

时       间：28日08时（北京时）

海       域：北大西洋

命       名：“伊恩”，IAN

中心位置：北纬24.4度、西经83.0度

强度等级：三级飓风

最大风力：16级（54米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级）

中心气压：947百帕

参考位置：美国佛罗里达州迈阿密西偏南方向约315公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“伊恩”由14级加强到16级

预报结论：“伊恩”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向北偏东方向移动，强度逐渐加强。


图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2022年09月28日08时00分）

炎煌深沉

WTIO30 FMEE 280620
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/1/20222023
1.A REMNANT LOW 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION 2022/09/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 76.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/09/28 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 0

24H: 2022/09/29 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

36H: 2022/09/29 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/09/30 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONTINUOUSLY WEAKENING IN ASHLEY'S SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOW SHOWS A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL VORTEX DEPRIVED OF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION, THE CLOSEST COLD CLOUDTOPS BEING MORE THAN 90 NM
FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM'S FINAL
WEAKENING STAGE IS THUS ONGOING, CONFIRMING THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSIONS, NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND
DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THEREFORE, ASHLEY IS DOWNGRADED TO A
REMNANT LOW. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AROUND 30KT, ACCORDING TO
LAST NIGHT'S PARTIAL ASCAT DATA AND AVAILABLE NWP GUIDANCE.

ASHLEY'S REMNANT LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS FOLLOWING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. FROM FRIDAY, IT WILL THEN BE ATTRACTED MORE SOUTHWARD
WHILE INTERACTING WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CLOSE TO 20S/70E. IT
WILL THUS REMAIN AWAY FROM INHABITED ISLANDS, OFF THE EAST OF THE
MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO. ASSOCIATED WINDS COULD KEEP REACHING NEAR-GALE
FORCE IN THE SHORT TERM IN THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.=

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析TOO WEAK

TPXS10 PGTW 280935
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY)
B. 28/0900Z
C. 14.70S
D. 75.49E
E. THREE/MET9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z继续分析TOO WEAK，SSD分析降至T1.0/2.0

TPXS10 PGTW 281229
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY)
B. 28/1200Z
C. 15.12S
D. 74.96E
E. THREE/MET9
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   28/0825Z  14.65S  75.48E  AMS2
   TIMMERMAN

TXXS26 KNES 281301
TCSSIO
A.  02S (ASHLEY)
B.  28/1130Z
C.  15.2S
D.  74.9E
E.  THREE/MET-9
F.  T1.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...LESS THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF LESS THAN 1.0. THE
MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE
IN T NUMBER TO .5 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...BERTALAN

红豆棒冰冰

MFR昨晚热带天气讨论中继续提及此系统

Residual and fluctuating convective activity is associated with the remnant low ASHLEY.
Elsewhere, there is no significant convective activity.
Remnant low ASHLEY:
Position at 09 UTC: 14.8°S / 75.6°E
Forward motion : West-South-West 13 kt
Maximum wind averaged over 10 min : 30 kt
MSLP : 1005 hPa
For more information on this system, refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC.