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[2023] 迪戈加西亚东南中等热带风暴第1号“艾什莉”(02S.Ashley) - 南半球新风季首个命名TC

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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-27 06:25 | 显示全部楼层
sh0223.gif
02S_261800sair.jpg

WTXS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 82.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 82.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 13.2S 80.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 13.3S 78.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 13.7S 75.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 14.3S 73.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 82.1E.
26SEP22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 697 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.
//
NNNN

  1. WDXS31 PGTW 262100
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR
  4. 001//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  8. SUMMARY:
  9.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.1S 82.6E
  10.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
  11.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 697 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
  12.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
  13.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

  14. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  15. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
  16. CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED
  17. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
  18. (LLCC). THIS DISPLACEMENT IS CAUSED BY STRONG (30-35 KTS) UPPER
  19. LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST. A BULLSEYE 261633Z ASCAT-B PASS
  20. SHOWS THE WELL DEFINED LLCC SURROUNDED PREDOMINATELY BY 30 KNOT
  21. WIND BARBS WITH POCKETS OF 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
  22. SEMI-CIRCLES. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
  23. ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG (30-35
  24. KTS) POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (27-28 C) SEAS SURFACE
  25. TEMPERATURES (SSTS), OFFSET BY STRONG (35-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
  26. SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ARE
  27. PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-B
  28. PASS.

  29. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

  30. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
  31. SOUTHEAST.

  32. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  33.    PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
  34.    KNES: T1.0 - 25 KTS

  35. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
  36.    VWS: 35-40 KTS
  37.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
  38.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
  39.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR DOWNSTREAM OF FORECAST TRACK

  40. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  41.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  42.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
  43.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

  44. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  45. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
  46. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

  47. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02S WILL TRANSIT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
  48. HOURS AS IT RIDES ALONG THE NORTHWEST SECTOR OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM
  49. WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY FROM 40 KNOTS TO 35 KNOTS
  50. BY TAU 24 AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE DUE TO
  51. INCREASED VWS. AFTER TAU 24, TC 02S WILL MAKE A SLIGHT TURN AND
  52. HEAD ON A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT WILL ATTEMPT TO ROUND
  53. THE STR AXIS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AT THIS
  54. TIME DUE TO THE WORSENING ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY UNFAVORABLE
  55. VWS AND THE INTRODUCTION OF DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE
  56. WEST.

  57. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT
  58. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A 23 NM SPREAD AT TAU
  59. 12, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO ITS LARGEST SPREAD OF 54 NM BY TAU 36.
  60. THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT IN CONSENSUS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
  61. FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF ROUGHLY 10
  62. KNOTS BETWEEN GFS AND COAMPS AT TAU 12. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
  63. CONSENSUS SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24. THE JTWC FORECAST
  64. INTENSITY IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CONSISTENT
  65. SPREAD OF 10 KNOTS AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS.

  66. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  67.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
  68.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
  69. NNNN
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发表于 2022-9-27 14:04 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 933954 于 2022-9-27 14:05 编辑

Ashley.jpg
2022-09-27_09_46_31_track.jpg
我吹过你吹过的晚风
是否看过同样 风景
像扰乱时差留在错位时空
终是空 是空
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-27 14:38 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-9-27 15:20 编辑

trajectoire.png
02S_BAND13_202209270600.png
20220927.0432.mtc.ASCAT.wind.02S.TWO.40kts-1003mb.134S.811E.25km.noqc.jpg

WTIO30 FMEE 270708
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/1/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION 2022/09/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 80.8 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/09/27 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 285 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 140 NW: 0

24H: 2022/09/28 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 230 NW: 0

36H: 2022/09/28 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/09/29 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINTAINED MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT IN RELATION WITH A DEEP NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
STILL MODERATE TO STRONG (20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA). A LARGE PART
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED. NEVERTHELESS, THE SYSTEM
MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS SHEAR AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALLOWED THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. LAST NIGHT'S AND
THIS MORNING'S ASCAT SWATHS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED
ASHLEY BY THE MAURITIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, ASHLEY IS MOVING ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE GENERATING A WESTWARD MOVEMENT CURRENTLY. WITH THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THESE HIGH PRESSURES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESUME A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.

ASHLEY SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND SHOULD WEAKEN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, STILL UNDER THE UNFAVORABLE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A
RESIDUAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.=
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-27 15:18 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-9-27 16:20 编辑

sh0223.gif
02S_270600sair.jpg


WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 80.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 80.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 13.5S 78.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 14.5S 75.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 15.3S 73.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 80.2E.
27SEP22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.
//
NNNN

  1. WDXS31 PGTW 270900
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR
  4. 002//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  8. SUMMARY:
  9.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.4S 80.8E
  10.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
  11.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 619 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
  12.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
  13.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

  14. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  15. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
  16. EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED
  17. CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS DISPLACEMENT IS
  18. CAUSED BY STRONG (30-35 KTS) UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM THE
  19. NORTH-NORTHEAST. A BULLSEYE 270340Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWS
  20. A DEFINED LLCC SURROUNDED PREDOMINATELY BY 25 KNOT WIND BARBS WITH
  21. AN AREA OF 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN REGION AND 35 KNOT
  22. WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S IS IN A
  23. MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG (30-35
  24. KTS) POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY NOMINALLY WARM (25-26 C)
  25. SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND STRONG (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL
  26. WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY ARE
  27. PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP, THE AVERAGE OF
  28. MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
  29. ASCAT IMAGE.

  30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 270340Z METOP-B
  31. ASCAT.

  32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
  33. SOUTHEAST.

  34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  35.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
  36.    KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
  37.    FMEE: T2.0 - 30 KTS
  38.    CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 270615Z

  39. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
  40. UNFAVORABLE
  41.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
  42.    SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
  43.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
  44.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR DOWNSTREAM OF FORECAST TRACK

  45. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  46.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  47.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
  48.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

  49. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  50. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  51. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  52. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ASHLEY WILL CONTINUE ON A
  53. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT MOVES ALONG THE NORTHWEST SECTOR OF
  54. THE STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC ASHLEY APPEARS TO HAVE
  55. ALREADY PEAKED AT 40 KNOTS, AND WILL NOW BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT
  56. TRANSITS WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, MARKED
  57. BY COOLER SSTS, HIGHER VWS, AND DRIER AIR SURROUNDING THE LLCC.
  58. AFTER TAU 12, TC 02S WILL MAKE A SOUTHWEST TURN AND TRACK INTO EVEN
  59. COOLER WATERS, WHILE THE CONVECTION CONTINUALLY IS STRIPPED AWAY
  60. FROM THE CENTER. AT TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING OUT
  61. OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN FAR FROM ANY LANDMASS AND COMPLETE
  62. DISSIPATION BY TAU 36 IF NOT SOONER DUE TO THE HARSH ENVIRONMENT.

  63. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT
  64. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MERE 36NM SPREAD AT
  65. TAU 12, INCREASING TO AN OVERALL SPREAD OF 120 NM BY TAU 36 AS THE
  66. LLCC WEAKENS. THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN CONSENSUS LENDS HIGH
  67. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE SAME STORY IS TRUE FOR
  68. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE IS ONLY A SPREAD OF 5 KNOTS BETWEEN
  69. THE HIGHEST INTENSITY OF HWRF, AND LOWEST COAMPS THROUGH THE
  70. DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
  71. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.

  72. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  73.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
  74.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
  75. NNNN
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发表于 2022-9-27 15:30 | 显示全部楼层

Ashley居然是女名吗?看到这个名字我首先想到的是阿什利·扬(Ashley Young)和阿什利·科尔(Ashley Cole)
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-27 16:04 | 显示全部楼层
红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2022-9-27 15:30
Ashley居然是女名吗?看到这个名字我首先想到的是阿什利·扬(Ashley Young)和阿什利·科尔(Ashley Col ...

一开始是只有男性在用,近六十年开始男女兼用,并最终现在成为女性占多数的名字

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参与人数 1威望 +1 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 1 好的

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发表于 2022-9-27 16:30 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报:渠鸿宇  签发:许映龙  2022 年 09 月 27 日 18 时
“伊恩”向偏北方向移动

时       间:27日14时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“伊恩”,IAN

中心位置:北纬21.8度、西经83.6度

强度等级:三级飓风

最大风力:15级(50米/秒,相当于我国的强台风级)

中心气压:958百帕

参考位置:美国佛罗里达州圣布拉斯角南偏东方向约900公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“伊恩”由10级加强到15级

预报结论:“伊恩”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向偏北方向移动,强度逐渐增强。


图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月27日14时00分)

南印度洋热带风暴“ASHLEY”生成

时       间:27日14时(北京时)

海       域:南印度洋

命       名:“ASHLEY”,ASHLEY

中心位置:南纬13.1度、东经80.8度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:9级(21米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:1001百帕

参考位置:毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约2600公里的洋面上

变化过程:“ASHLEY”生成并加强到9级

预报结论:“ASHLEY”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏西方向移动,强度有所减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220927180002400_XML_2.jpg
图2 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月27日14时00分)
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发表于 2022-9-27 17:12 | 显示全部楼层
红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2022-9-27 15:30
Ashley居然是女名吗?看到这个名字我首先想到的是阿什利·扬(Ashley Young)和阿什利·科尔(Ashley Col ...

阿哲,我们一直以为只有女人在用这个名字
The wind blows.
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Citrus Love

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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-27 20:18 | 显示全部楼层
trajectoire.png

WTIO30 FMEE 271210
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ASHLEY)

2.A POSITION 2022/09/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 79.9 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/09/28 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2022/09/28 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 0

36H: 2022/09/29 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/09/29 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.0

DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OF TROPICAL STORM
ASHLEY SLIGHTLY DECREASED BUT IS STILL PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE STILL MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER SHEAR (20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA), THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED. WITHOUT ANY NEW DATA (ASCAT OR
MICROWAVE), THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE MAINTAINED AT 40KT.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WAS DRIVING THE
WESTWARD FLOW IS PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND BECOMING MORE
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST ORIENTED. ASHLEY SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE A MORE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST TO SOUTH-WEST TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ASHLEY REACHED ITS PEAK IN THE LAST HOURS AND
SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN. INDEED, THE STRONG SHEAR AND THE DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS WILL FAVOUR AN EVOLUTION INTO A RESIDUAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 48H.

ASHLEY DOES NOT THREATEN POPULATED AREAS.=
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发表于 2022-9-27 21:15 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2022-9-27 21:46 编辑

JTWC 12Z分析维持T2.0,SSD分析维持T1.5
TPXS10 PGTW 271212
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY)
B. 27/1145Z
C. 13.46S
D. 79.72E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED NEAR COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET & PT
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   TIMMERMAN
02S_BAND01_202209271145.png
02S_BD_202209271145.png
TXXS26 KNES 271237
TCSSIO
A.  02S (ASHLEY)
B.  27/1130Z
C.  13.2S
D.  79.4E
E.  THREE/MET-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LESS THAN
1.25 DEGREES N OF THE LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE
MET IS 1.5 BASED ON A SLOW DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS ALSO 1.5. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE MET BECAUSE THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION WAS NOT CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...BERTALAN
02S_BAND01_202209271130.png
02S_BD_202209271130.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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