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[2023] 迪戈加西亚东南中等热带风暴第1号“艾什莉”(02S.Ashley) - 南半球新风季首个命名TC

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论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

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发表于 2022-9-26 17:08 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2022-10-1 01:00 编辑

91S INVEST 220926 0600 12.0S 84.0E SHEM 15 0

20220926.0830.himawari-8.vis.91S.INVEST.15kts.0mb.12S.84E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 91S

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发表于 2022-9-26 17:11 | 显示全部楼层
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-26 17:17 | 显示全部楼层
数值预报一天内达到巅峰(或巅峰已过)

gfs_mslp_wind_io_2.png
ecmwf_mslp_wind_io_5.png
sio.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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强台风

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发表于 2022-9-26 17:19 | 显示全部楼层
可惜了,要是早一天编号,或许以现在的强度混个TD不成问题
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It's Always With Me.

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发表于 2022-9-26 19:13 | 显示全部楼层
  1. AWIO20 FMEE 261046

  2. TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

  3. BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
  4. THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

  5. DATE: 2022/09/26 AT 1200 UTC

  6. PART 1:

  7. WARNING SUMMARY:


  8. Next warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 001/01 on tropical depression 01/20222023 to be issued at 12UTC

  9. PART 2 :
  10. TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


  11. The basin depict a Near Equatorial Talweg (NET) pattern east of 65oE and oriented between 3 and 5oS. The convective activity is moderate and is concentrated near the tropical depression 01/20222023 located at the eastern end of the basin, as well as on the equatorial side of the NET.

  12. Tropical depression 01/20222023 :

  13. Position at 09UTC: 12.7S/83.6E

  14. Displacement : Southwest 8kt

  15. Maximum wind averaged over 10 min : 30kt

  16. Minimum pressure at the center : 1001hPa

  17. For more information on this system, refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 which will be issued at 12UTC and following.

  18. During the next 5 days, there is no risk of another tropical low pressure system forming over the basin.



  19. NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

  20. Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
  21. Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

  22. The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.
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MFR升格热带低压第1号,并将于12Z对其发报。
我吹过你吹过的晚风
是否看过同样 风景
像扰乱时差留在错位时空
终是空 是空
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发表于 2022-9-26 20:00 | 显示全部楼层
assonll 发表于 2022-9-26 17:19
可惜了,要是早一天编号,或许以现在的强度混个TD不成问题

JTWC TD南半球没有什么意义,MFR TD刚刚有了
隐藏内容请勿转载 / Strong claims require strong evidence.
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-26 20:16 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-9-26 20:38 编辑

trajectoire.png
WMBds211.png

WTIO30 FMEE 261233
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/1/20222023
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1

2.A POSITION 2022/09/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 83.4 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/09/27 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2022/09/27 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2022/09/28 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

48H: 2022/09/28 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

60H: 2022/09/29 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

72H: 2022/09/29 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

FOLLOWED BY THE BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY SINCE A FEW DAYS, THE
SYSTEM 01-20222023 HAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND
DURING THIS DAY. THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS THUS EVOLVED TO DEFINE A
CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH A MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH OF 0359UTC ALLOWS TO VALIDATE
VALUES OF 30KT IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. SOME VALUES AT 35KT ARE
ALSO NOTABLE BUT ON A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION NOT SIGNIFICANT. BY
TAKING AGAIN THE SATELLITE IMAGES ON MORE THAN 24H, WE CAN DETERMINE
A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 2.5 TO 12UTC, VALIDATING THE THRESHOLD OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE LAST IMAGES SUGGEST THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION.

PLACED ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WILL FOLLOW A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A
FAIRLY CONSTANT SPEED. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AS IT DISSIPATES.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS RAPIDLY EVOLVE TOWARDS CONDITIONS
UNFAVORABLE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THERE
IS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER, THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM THE
NORTH COAST AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL STOP ANY INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE QUICKLY END UP AS A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE DISAPPEARING WITHOUT REACHING THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY DANGER FOR THE INHABITED LANDS.=
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-26 21:12 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-9-26 22:25 编辑

ABIO10 PGTW 261300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/261300Z-261800ZSEP2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7S
83.1E, APPROXIMATELY 706 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 260330Z ASCAT PASS DEPICT A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH STRONG CONVECTION AND WINDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 91S IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KTS), CONVERGENCE
ALOFT, AND COOL (25-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO LOW//
NNNN

abpwsair.jpg
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发表于 2022-9-26 21:23 | 显示全部楼层
SSD 12Z分析T1.0
TXXS26 KNES 261235
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)
B.  26/1130Z
C.  12.1S
D.  83.2E
E.  THREE/MET-9
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET
AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...BERTALAN
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-26 23:40 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC 15Z分析T1.5
TPXS10 PGTW 261451
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 26/1430Z
C. 12.62S
D. 82.45E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   26/1251Z  12.62S  83.02E  SSMS
   SCOTT
20220926.1253.f17.91pct91h91v.91S.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.12.7S.83.1E.090pc.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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