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[2022] 西非近岸热带风暴“赫敏”(10L.Hermine) - 远洋北上

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发表于 2022-9-22 20:36 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2022-9-24 04:30 编辑

90L INVEST 220922 1200 15.2N 16.0W ATL 25 1008

20220922.1300.goes-16.vis.2km.90L.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.15.2N.16W.pc.jpg
two_atl_2d2.png
two_atl_5d2.png

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are
associated with a tropical wave that has emerged over the warm
waters of the far eastern Atlantic.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form by this weekend while the system moves slowly
northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

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发表于 2022-9-23 14:16 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:70%/70%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located less than 200 miles west of Bermuda, and on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located less than 200 miles northwest of the central
Azores.

1. Central Caribbean Sea:
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms have
increased and are showing signs of organization tonight with a
well-defined low pressure system located over the central Caribbean
Sea about 100 miles north-northeast of Curacao. Even though the
upper-level wind environment is currently only marginally favorable,
only a small additional increase in organization would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today. The system is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the central and western Caribbean Sea.  Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect northwestern
Venezuela, the ABC island chain, and northeastern Colombia through
Friday.  Interests in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba
should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure, located roughly in between the Cabo
Verde islands to the east and the west coast of Africa, is producing
a large area of showers and thunderstorms. While this activity is
gradually becoming better organized, earlier satellite wind data
indicated the circulation remained fairly broad. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some
development over the next day or so, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by this weekend while the system moves northward at
about 10 mph, parallel to the coast of west Africa.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized association
with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Despite marginal
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system
remains possible over the next several days while it drifts
northwestward or northward over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin
two_atl_2d0.png
two_atl_2d2.png
two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d2.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-23 20:45 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:80%/80%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located north of Bermuda, on Tropical Storm Gaston, located
near the central Azores, and on newly formed Tropical Depression
Nine, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Jamaica over
the eastern Caribbean Sea.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located between the Cabo Verde Islands and the west coast
of Africa is showing increased signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for further
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression is
likely to form while the system moves northward at about 10 mph,
roughly parallel to the coast of west Africa.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce some
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Despite marginal
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it drifts northwestward or
northward over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Reinhart
two_atl_2d0.png
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d1.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-23 20:52 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-9-23 20:54 编辑

al902022.gif

WTNT21 KNGU 231200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (90L)//
RMKS/1.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1N 19.3W TO 18.8N 23.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230609Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.6N 19.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS:AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A DRY, STABLE SAHARAN
AIR-LAYER OUTBREAK, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. IF THESE DEVELOMENTAL TRENDS
CONTINUE, A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY FORM TODAY WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWARD AT 05-10 KNOTS, JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 241200Z.//
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发表于 2022-9-23 22:14 | 显示全部楼层
SSD 12Z分析T1.0
TXNT28 KNES 231206
TCSNTL
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90L)
B.  23/1130Z
C.  17.5N
D.  19.6W
E.  FIVE/GOES-E
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...TURK
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-23 22:17 | 显示全部楼层
FNMOC显示已升格10L

FNMOC.PNG
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-23 22:51 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-9-24 00:06 编辑

WTNT45 KNHC 231445
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
200 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022

Satellite images indicate that the strong tropical wave that NHC has
been tracking for several days over western Africa has developed a
well-defined surface center over the far eastern Atlantic with
organized bands of convection.  Dropsonde data from a DC-8 aircraft
with the NASA field program Convective Processes EXperiment-Cabo
Verde (CPEX-CV) has been quite useful in determining the central
pressure and surface circulation definition of the low, with the
central pressure of 1003 mb based on the dropsondes.  The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, perhaps conservatively since the eastern
side of the circulation has not been sampled by scatterometer or
aircraft data.

The system is moving north-northwestward at about 10 kt.  A large
break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge should cause this
system to move generally northward ahead of a mid-level trough
before turning westward and accelerating as a shallow system beneath
the low-level ridge.  The forecast is close to the model consensus,
with heavier weight being placed on the global models than the
regional hurricane track models.

The depression has about a day over warm water in light to moderate
shear before all the models blast the system with strong upper-
level southwesterly winds.  Most of the guidance shows this system
becoming a tropical storm before weakening significantly by late
this weekend and dissipating early next week.  The official wind
speed prediction is near the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance HCCA.

Note that 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible over the Canary Islands
through this weekend due to a combination of the mid-level trough
and moisture from this system, which is a bit unusual for that area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 17.9N  19.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  24/0000Z 19.2N  20.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  24/1200Z 21.0N  21.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  25/0000Z 22.3N  21.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  25/1200Z 23.2N  21.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
60H  26/0000Z 23.9N  21.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  26/1200Z 24.3N  21.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/1200Z 26.0N  26.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

144437_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al102022.gif
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发表于 2022-9-24 04:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-24 06:00 编辑

000
WTNT45 KNHC 232033
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
800 PM CVT Fri Sep 23 2022

A large burst of convection has been occurring in the northeastern
quadrant of the system today, with other shallow banding features
to the southeast of the center.  Overall, the cyclone looks better
than this morning and resembles a sheared tropical storm, which is
confirmed by the Dvorak pattern-T of 2.5 (35 kt) from SAB.  Thus
the wind speed is set to 35 kt, making this system the 8th tropical
storm of the season.  

Hermine continues moving north-northwestward, now about 10 kt.  
Global model guidance is consistent on the cyclone moving northward
through a large break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.  
The most significant change is that the storm could hold together a
little longer in a marginal environment, which causes the forecast
track to tug a little to the northeast before a weakening Hermine
would move westward as a shallow system beneath the low-level ridge.
The new forecast is shifted to the north and east, but is not as
far northeast as the GFS or HWRF models.  

The storm has about a day over lukewarm water before all the models
hit the system with strong upper-level southwesterly winds.  There
is a minority solution in the models where the upper-trough cuts
off, somewhat lessening the shear, but for now the NHC forecast
stays closer to the faster dissipation scenario. Either way, Hermine
should dissipate early next week due to very strong shear and dry
air entrainment cutting off any deep convection. The official
intensity forecast is a little higher than the last one, near the
various consensus aids.

Note that 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 6 inches,
are possible over the Canary Islands through this weekend due to a
combination of a mid-latitude trough and moisture from Hermine.  
This rainfall could cause some flash flooding in areas of higher
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 18.6N  20.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  24/0600Z 19.8N  21.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  24/1800Z 21.6N  21.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  25/0600Z 23.1N  21.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  25/1800Z 24.1N  20.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  26/0600Z 24.5N  21.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  26/1800Z 24.8N  21.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/1800Z 26.5N  25.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

203440_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

al102022.20220923215047.gif
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发表于 2022-9-24 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-24 12:00 编辑

000
WTNT45 KNHC 240237
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
200 AM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022

Hermine has changed little in organization since earlier this
evening. Persistent deep convection has been occurring in the
northeastern quadrant, with the estimated low-level circulation
center located just to the southwest of the edge of the convection.
The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The cyclone has turned northward and is moving at a heading of 350/9
kt toward a break in the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. A
northward to northeastward motion is expected into early next week
while Hermine remains in tact. A turn to the northwest is expected
by 72 h as the cyclone becomes shallow and steered by the low-level
flow. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through
60 h, but is a little to the right thereafter due to an overall
shift in the track guidance.

Hermine now has about 18-24 hours to intensify in the presence of
marginal SSTs and moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear. After
24 h, the southwesterly shear is forecast to progressively increase
while dry air gets pulled into the storm's environment. Therefore
weakening is expected after that time, and both the ECMWF and GFS
simulated satellite imagery suggests that Hermine should degenerate
into a remnant low devoid of deep convection on Monday. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is on
the high end of the guidance.

Hermine is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated
totals of 6 inches, over the Canary Islands through this weekend due
to a combination of a mid-latitude trough and moisture from the
cyclone. This rainfall could cause some flash flooding in areas of
higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 19.4N  20.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  24/1200Z 20.7N  21.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  25/0000Z 22.3N  21.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  25/1200Z 23.8N  20.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  26/0000Z 24.7N  20.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  26/1200Z 25.4N  20.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/0000Z 26.1N  21.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  28/0000Z 27.8N  25.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

023831_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

al102022.20220924034556.gif
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超强台风

Super Typhoon

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发表于 2022-9-24 10:48 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2022-9-23 18:50 编辑

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报:吕心艳  签发:吕心艳  2022 年 09 月 24 日 10 时
北大西洋热带风暴“赫尔米内”生成

时       间:24日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“赫尔米内”,HERMINE

中心位置:北纬18.9度、西经20.7度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:1002百帕

参考位置:佛得角博阿维斯塔岛北偏东方向约380公里的洋面上

变化过程:“赫尔米内”生成并加强到8级

预报结论:“赫尔米内”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度变化不大。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220924100002400_XML_1.jpg
图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月24日08时00分)


“菲奥娜”向偏北方向移动

时       间:24日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“菲奥娜”,FIONA

中心位置:北纬42.3度、西经60.7度

强度等级:三级飓风

最大风力:17级(57米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级)

中心气压:935百帕

参考位置:百慕大群岛北偏东方向约1170公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“菲奥娜”强度维持不变

预报结论:“菲奥娜”将以每小时35-40公里的速度向偏北方向快速移动,强度逐渐减弱。


图2 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月24日08时00分)

“加斯顿”向偏西方向移动

时       间:24日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“加斯顿”,GASTON

中心位置:北纬39.1度、西经29.1度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级)

中心气压:999百帕

参考位置:亚速尔群岛东北方向约150公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“加斯顿”强度维持不变

预报结论:“加斯顿”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏西方向移动,强度缓慢减弱。


图3 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月24日08时00分)

“牛顿”向西偏北方向移动

时       间:24日08时(北京时)

海       域:东北太平洋

命       名:“牛顿”,NEWTON

中心位置:北纬18.5度、西经111.5度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:1003百帕

参考位置:墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣玛格丽塔岛偏南方向约650公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“牛顿”由10级减弱到8级

预报结论:“牛顿”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度变化不大。


图4 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月24日08时00分)
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