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2216号热带气旋“奥鹿”(18W.Noru)机构发报专帖

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13W.LUPIT

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发表于 2022-9-22 04:19 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 卢碧碧 于 2022-9-23 15:13 编辑

WTPN21 PGTW 212130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 17.6N 133.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 212100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 134.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.9N 133.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 662 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION WITH LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HIDDEN BENEATH DEEP CONVECTIVE COVER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM (29-30C)
SSTS, LOW (0-05KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MEDIOCRE OUTFLOW DESPITE
HAVING A POINT SOURCE ABOVE IT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE AREA HAS
BEEN ON A STEADY DECLINE ALONG WITH VORTICITY SIGNATURES STEADILY
INCREASING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DISARRAY ABOUT 95W.  GENERAL CONSENSUS
IS, IT WILL NOT DEVELOP WITHIN THE USUAL TCFA TIMELINE BUT INSTEAD BEYOND
TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT COMPLETELY GOES AGAINST THE
ENVIRONMENT AND WHAT IS CLEARLY DEPICTED ON EIR. 95W IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHILE MEANDERING EAST THEN GUIDANCE
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FORCES IT ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
222130Z.
//
NNNN

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The wind blows.
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-22 04:20 | 显示全部楼层
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The wind blows.
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发表于 2022-9-22 10:40 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/18W/#01/09-22 00Z

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-9-22 11:55 编辑

wp182022.20220922023648.gif
wp1822.gif

WTPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/2121212022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 134.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 134.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 18.1N 134.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 18.2N 133.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 18.1N 131.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 17.9N 129.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 17.3N 125.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 17.4N 119.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 18.0N 110.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 134.6E.
22SEP22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 530 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND
230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 212130).
//
NNNN
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发表于 2022-9-22 11:32 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/18W/#01/09-22 00Z Prognostic Reasoning

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-9-22 12:00 编辑

18W_220000sair.jpg

WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.7N 134.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 530 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE
OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 212138Z SSMIS 91
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS
A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG WITH A BULLSEYE 220011Z
METOP-B ASCAT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED 220011Z METOP-B ASCAT, WHICH SHOWS UP
TO 30 KNOTS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
ALONG WITH AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, PGTW T1.5 AND KNES
T1.5.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 18W IS CURRENTLY IN A QUASI-STATIONARY
MOTION DUE TO A WEAK SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, AS THE SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. AS THE
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO BUILD AND
TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINATE STEERING FEATURE, TD 18W WILL BEGIN TO
TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING UP TO 40
KNOTS TAU 72. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DUE TO
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (29-30C), MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15 KNOTS) AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, GFS MODELED
700MB-300MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. AFTER TAU 72, TD 18W
WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN LUZON, WHICH WILL THEN RESULT IN A DECREASE
IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE BRIEF LAND INTERACTION. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND
TAU 120, 18W WILL MOVE BACK OVER WATER INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
CONTINUING TO TRANSIT WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT 18W WILL TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 72.
AFTER TAU 72, THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPREAD AS UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN BOTH CROSS TRACK AND ALONG TRACK VARIABILITY THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 96
TO TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH SPREAD AND UNCERTAINLY IN
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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发表于 2022-9-22 15:24 | 显示全部楼层

JMA/TD-b/09-22 06Z

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-9-22 17:56 编辑

WM_TY-TC2220-V3_20220922-150000.jpg

熱帯低気圧 b
2022年09月22日16時25分発表

22日15時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯17度55分 (17.9度)
東経134度35分 (134.6度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

23日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯17度30分 (17.5度)
東経133度00分 (133.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        150 km (80 NM)

24日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯17度00分 (17.0度)
東経128度25分 (128.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20 km/h (11 kt)
中心気圧        998 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        240 km (130 NM)

25日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯16度20分 (16.3度)
東経123度50分 (123.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20 km/h (11 kt)
中心気圧        994 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23 m/s (45 kt)
最大瞬間風速        35 m/s (65 kt)
予報円の半径        370 km (200 NM)

26日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯16度25分 (16.4度)
東経119度00分 (119.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20 km/h (12 kt)
中心気圧        994 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23 m/s (45 kt)
最大瞬間風速        35 m/s (65 kt)
予報円の半径        520 km (280 NM)

27日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯16度35分 (16.6度)
東経114度05分 (114.1度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20 km/h (12 kt)
中心気圧        994 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        23 m/s (45 kt)
最大瞬間風速        35 m/s (65 kt)
予報円の半径        700 km (390 NM)

  1. WTPQ31 RJTD 220600
  2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
  3. REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 17.9N 134.6E
  4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  5.   A TD IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 134.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  6.   POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  7.   POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND
  8.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  9.   IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  10.   HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
  11.   DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  12.   INTENSITY IS BASED ON EARLY STAGE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  13.   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  14. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  15.   THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
  16.   ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED
  17.   MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
  18.   GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
  19.   CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
  20. 3.TRACK FORECAST
  21.   THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  22.   SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  23.   PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  24.   CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
  25.   OUTPUTS.
  26. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  27.   THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  28.   INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
  29.   WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
  30.   IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
  31. =
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发表于 2022-9-22 15:34 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/18W/#02/09-22 06Z

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-9-22 17:40 编辑

wp1822.gif

WTPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002   
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 134.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 134.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 18.1N 133.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 18.0N 132.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 18.0N 130.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 17.7N 128.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.5N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 17.6N 116.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 17.9N 109.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 134.1E.
22SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z
AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-22 16:12 | 显示全部楼层

HKO/TD/09-22 06Z

本帖最后由 卢碧碧 于 2022-9-22 16:17 编辑

熱帶低氣壓
在香港時間 2022 年 09 月 22 日 14 時的最新資料
位置:  北緯 17.9 度,東經 134.5 度
中心附近最高持續風速:  每小時 45 公里

位於菲律賓以東海域的熱帶氣旋會在未來一兩日大致移向呂宋北部一帶。
nwp_2227.png
預測的位置和強度
香港時間
位置
熱帶氣旋類別
中心附近最高持續風速
2022 年 09 月 23 日 14 時
北 緯 18.0 度
東 經 132.5 度
熱帶低氣壓
每小時 55 公里
2022 年 09 月 24 日 14 時
北 緯 17.8 度
東 經 127.9 度
熱帶風暴
每小時 65 公里
2022 年 09 月 25 日 14 時
北 緯 17.5 度
東 經 122.4 度
熱帶風暴
每小時 65 公里
2022 年 09 月 26 日 14 時
北 緯 18.3 度
東 經 115.1 度
熱帶風暴
每小時 75 公里
2022 年 09 月 27 日 14 時
北 緯 18.1 度
東 經 109.8 度
熱帶風暴
每小時 75 公里


fp_2227.png
The wind blows.
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-22 16:32 | 显示全部楼层

CWB/TD19/09-22 06Z

本帖最后由 卢碧碧 于 2022-9-22 16:40 编辑

熱帶性低氣壓TD19

現況
2022年09月22日14時
中心位置在北緯 17.9 度,東經 134.7 度
過去移動方向 -
過去移動時速 -公里
中心氣壓 1006百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
西北西 時速 6 公里
預測 09月22日20時
中心位置在北緯 18.0 度,東經 134.4 度
中心氣壓1006百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 50 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
西南西 時速 7 公里
預測 09月23日02時
中心位置在北緯 17.9 度,東經 134.0 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 100 公里

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
西南西 時速 8 公里
預測 09月23日08時
中心位置在北緯 17.7 度,東經 133.6 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 130 公里

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
西 時速 14 公里
預測 09月23日14時
中心位置在北緯 17.6 度,東經 132.8 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 160 公里

預測 24 小時內有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢

預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為
西 時速 20 公里
預測 09月24日02時
中心位置在北緯 17.4 度,東經 130.6 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 220 公里

預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為
西 時速 20 公里
預測 09月24日14時
中心位置在北緯 17.2 度,東經 128.3 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 270 公里

預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為
西 時速 21 公里
預測 09月25日14時
中心位置在北緯 16.5 度,東經 123.7 度
中心氣壓988百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 23 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 30 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 300 公里

預測 72-96 小時平均移向移速為
西 時速 21 公里
預測 09月26日14時
中心位置在北緯 16.7 度,東經 118.9 度
中心氣壓988百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 23 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 30 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 520 公里

預測 96-120 小時平均移向移速為
西 時速 23 公里
預測 09月27日14時
中心位置在北緯 17.0 度,東經 113.8 度
中心氣壓988百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 23 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 30 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 850 公里

Download_PTA72_202209220600_TD19_zhtw.png
Download_PTA_202209220600_TD19_zhtw.png
Download_WSP_202209220600_TD19_zhtw.png
The wind blows.
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-22 16:53 | 显示全部楼层

KMA/TD/09-22 06Z

제 28호 열대저압부 기상청 | 2022년 09월 22일 17시 10분 발표
일시
중심위치
중심기압(hPa)
최대풍속
강풍반경(km)
[예외반경]
폭풍반경(km)
[예외반경]
강도
진행
방향
이동
속도
(km/h)
70%
확률
반경(km)
위도(N)
경도(E)
초속(m/s)
시속(km/h)
22일 15시 현재
17.9
134.5
1002
15
54
-
남남동
3
-
23일 15시 예상
17.6
132.5
1000
18
65
200
[남서 약 150]
-
서
9
110
24일 15시 예상
17.2
128.3
1000
18
65
200
[남서 약 150]
-
서
19
170
25일 15시 예상
16.7
123.4
998
19
68
200
[남서 약 150]
-
서
22
230
26일 15시 예상
16.7
118.4
998
19
68
200
[남서 약 150]
-
서
22
280
27일 15시 예상
17.0
113.3
998
19
68
200
[남서 약 150]
-
서
22
380
RTKO64_202209221710]28_ko.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-22 17:27 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/18W/#02/09-22 06Z Prognostic Reasoning

本帖最后由 卢碧碧 于 2022-9-22 17:31 编辑

WDPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (EIGHTEEN)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.9N 134.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 550 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
AS WELL AS EVIDENCED ON A 220552Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OLDER 220105Z METOP-C ASCAT AND A LATER
220413Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR GREATER DEVELOPMENT WITH MOSTLY WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SST VALUES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 220650Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 18W REMAINS IN A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION DUE
TO A WEAK SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WITH A COL DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH,
IMPEDING ITS MOTION. THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING
FEATURE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FORCING TS 18W ON A WESTWARD JOG
TOWARDS THE LUZON COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. AS TS 18W TRANSITS OVER
THE VERY WARM AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) OF THE PHILIPPINE
SEA, IT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY WITH THE LACK OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND AN INCREASE OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS ENHANCED
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
AFTER THE SYSTEM REACHES LUZON, IT WILL INITIALLY LOSE SOME INTENSITY
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN BUT THEN REEMERGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON
A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK. SHORTLY AFTER ENTERING THE SCS, TS 18W
WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH NEAR HAINAN, CHINA,
BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH ONLY A 30NM SPREAD WITHOUT NAVGEM, THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. ADDING
NAVGEM INDUCES A 158NM SPREAD THROUGH TAU 48 AND ONLY SPREADS. THE
JTWC TRACK GUIDANCE LIES CLOSE TO ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH TAU 72 WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER LUZON,
THE CONFIDENCE WEAKENS GREATLY INDUCING TRACK SPREAD AND LOWERS THE
TRACK CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH SPREAD OF UNCERTAINLY. THEREFORE, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

18W_220600sair.jpg
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