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佛得角西南99L - 13.6N 35.8W - NHC:10%

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论坛版主-副热带高压

It's Always With Me.

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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10254
发表于 2022-9-21 23:03 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2022-9-25 20:10 编辑

99L INVEST 220921 1200 11.3N 32.4W ATL 20 1010

20220921.1640.goes-16.vis.2km.99L.INVEST.20kts.1010mb.11.3N.32.4W.pc.jpg
two_atl_2d3-1.png
two_atl_5d3-1.png

3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased  in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands.  Despite a dry environment, slow development
of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves
northwestward and then westward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
颱風巨爵 + 3 + 3 99L

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我吹过你吹过的晚风
是否看过同样 风景
像扰乱时差留在错位时空
终是空 是空
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发表于 2022-9-23 20:48 | 显示全部楼层
NHC维持20%/30%,GEFS系集支持明显发展的成员不多
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located north of Bermuda, on Tropical Storm Gaston, located
near the central Azores, and on newly formed Tropical Depression
Nine, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Jamaica over
the eastern Caribbean Sea.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located between the Cabo Verde Islands and the west coast
of Africa is showing increased signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for further
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression is
likely to form while the system moves northward at about 10 mph,
roughly parallel to the coast of west Africa.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce some
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Despite marginal
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it drifts northwestward or
northward over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Reinhart
two_atl_2d0.png
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two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d2.png
AL99_2022092306_GEFS_large.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-23 22:12 | 显示全部楼层
SSD 12Z分析T1.0
TXNT27 KNES 231201
TCSNTL
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99L)
B.  23/1130Z
C.  11.6N
D.  35.8W
E.  FIVE/GOES-E
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...0730Z SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM HY-2B INDICATED A CLOSED
CIRCULATION CENTER. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...TURK
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-25 20:08 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:10%/20%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located over the western Caribbean Sea, on Tropical Storm
Gaston, located a few hundred miles west of the western Azores, and
has issued the last advisory on Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine,
located over the far eastern Atlantic.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Any development of this system should be slow to occur
while it moves very little through the early portion of this week.
Environmental conditions could become marginally more conducive for
development by the middle portion of this week, when the system is
forecast to begin moving slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Papin
two_atl_2d0.png
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d1.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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