Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022
The low-level center of Newton has once again become obscured
by convection flaring near the center. A recent GPM microwave pass,
the recent exposure of the low-level center, and scatterometer
passes a few hours ago give high confidence in the location of the
center. The initial intensity for this advisory remains at 40 kt
based on a blend of the Dvorak analyses, including fixes from PHFO,
SATCON and AODT.
Newton is expected to continue gradually weakening over the next
several days. The system will remain over SSTs between 27-28C
through 72 hours. The SHIPS and global models show the system will
encounter increasing southerly shear in about 12 to 24 hours.
The system will also be encountering drier air over the next
several days. All combined, these factors will lead to the slow
weakening of the system, transitioning to a remnant low and then
dissipating in 72 hours.
The system has moved a little more to the northwest with this
advisory, driven in part by the bursts of convection that have been
observed over the last several hours. This movement remains close
to the forecasted track. The system is expected to continue moving
to the northwest for the next 24 to 36 hours, before making a turn
to the southwest as it weakens. The forecast track remains on the
southern side of the guidance envelope.
TXPZ27 KNES 240619
TCSENP
A. 15E (NEWTON)
B. 24/0530Z
C. 18.7N
D. 112.1W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T1.0/1.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 0.2 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET
IS 1.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE
TO THE PULSING AND BLOB-LIKE NATURE OF THE MEASURED CONVECTION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
24/0136Z 18.4N 111.7W SSMIS
...HOSLEY
Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022
While Newton is producing small areas of convection near and
north of the center, the storm is gradually becoming less
organized. Satellite intensity estimates are generally in the
30-40 kt range, and based on the decreased organization since the
last advisory the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt.
While Newton is likely to stay over warm sea surface temperatures,
a combination of a dry air mass and southerly vertical wind shear
should cause weakening. The new intensity forecast calls for the
cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 48 h and to dissipate
completely by 72 h. This much longevity could be generous, as
several of the global models forecast an earlier dissipation.
The initial motion is 290/8 kt. A general west-northwest motion is
forecast for about 12 h, followed by a turn toward the west and
eventually west-southwest. The track guidance is in good agreement
on this scenario, and the new forecast track is near the various
consensus models.
TXPZ27 KNES 241226
TCSENP
A. 15E (NEWTON)
B. 24/1130Z
C. 19.0N
D. 112.8W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2
H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0 BASED ON
A 24 HOUR SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE
PT BECAUSE THE MEASURED CLOUD FEATURES ARE NEWLY DEVELOPED.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
24/0938Z 19.1N 112.4W AMSR2
...GATLING
Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022
Small bursts of convection continue to form near the center of
Newton's center. A recent satellite microwave pass still showed
a small curved band in the northern semicircle of the circulation.
Subjective and objective satellite classifications range between
25-35 kt. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35
kt.
The combination of low environmental relative humidities and
moderate vertical wind shear are expected to slowly weaken Newton,
despite the relatively warm sea surface temperatures. There is
little change in the latest intensity forecast and Newton is still
expected to become a remnant low in two days and dissipate within
three days.
Newton is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt and gradually turning to
the west. As convection slowly dwindles, the shallow vortex is
expected to turn westward and eventually southwestward in the
low-level flow in the next day or so. The track guidance is
tightly clustered and the official forecast track is very similar to
the previous prediction.
Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022
Visible satellite imagery show Newton is reduced to a low-level
swirl devoid of deep convection. Satellite Dvorak estimates suggest
the intensity is between 25-30 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity
has been lowered to 30 kt, and Newton is now a tropical depression.
It remains to be seen if Newton is able to develop new central
convection as it moves over a oceanic thermal ridge with warmer sea
surface temperatures. Environmental conditions are not expected to
improve along the forecast track, however, and global models suggest
Newton will gradually spin down. The NHC intensity is slightly
lower than the previous advisory and now shows the depression as a
remnant low in 24 hours. However, given the current satellite
presentation, this could occur sooner.
The depression is moving just north of west at 8 kt. The shallow
circulation is expected to move westward in the low-level wind flow
for the next day. This is followed by a gradual turn to the
west-southwest and southwest until the end of the forecast period.
The current forecast track is largely an update of the previous
advisory prediction with only minor adjustments.
Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022
A little deep convection has reformed near the center of Newton
since the last advisory. While it isn't particularly well organized,
it was enough to get a 2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB, which
was the primary basis for the 30 kt initial intensity. The lack of
persistent or organized deep convection is probably due to a
combination of factors including a dry surrounding environment
(700-500 mb 50 to 55 percent RH according to SHIPS diagnostics) and
moderate wind shear.
Even though Newton is forecast to move over warmer SSTs during the
next few days, various global models suggest it could become
post-tropical sooner than that, and based on current trends that
could be as soon as tomorrow. The HWRF has a notably different
forecast, indicating Newton could stick around as a weak tropical
depression for at least another few days. The NHC forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory, showing Newton becoming
post-tropical in about a day and dissipating by day 3.
Newton has turned westward. Low-level winds should steer the
depression westward overnight, and then southwestward by late Sunday
or early Monday. Only minor adjustments were made to the official
track forecast which is based on the track consensus aids HCCA and
TVCN.
/6 
发表于 2022-9-24 10:35
发表于 2022-9-24 16:40
