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[2022] 墨西哥西南热带风暴“牛顿”(15E.Newton) - 环流细小

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发表于 2022-9-25 23:54 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 251429
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Newton barely qualifies as a tropical depression this morning, with
a small area of not-exactly-organized deep convection, which has
been weakening during the past few hours.  The initial wind speed
is held at 30 kt, perhaps generously.  The system should gradually
weaken due to persistent southerly shear helping to entrain drier
air into the circulation.  This environment should eliminate any
significant convection by this evening, and remnant low status is
now indicated in 12 hours.  

The depression is turning leftward, with the motion now estimated
at 240/8 kt.  Newton should move southwestward during the next few
days due to the orientation of the low-level ridge, and the model
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario.  No significant
changes were made to the previous NHC forecast for track or
intensity.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 19.0N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
142950_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep1522.gif
15E_251200sair.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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Super Typhoon

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14099
发表于 2022-9-26 06:38 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 252043
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Newton Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Satellite images during the last 24 hours indicate that Newton has
not produced much convection, and a brief burst overnight was too
ephemeral to qualify as organized enough for a tropical cyclone.  
Thus, this system has degenerated to a remnant low, and this is the
last NHC advisory.  The initial wind speed is set to 25 kt, assuming
some spin down of the vortex since this morning.  The remnant low
should continue moving southwestward for the few days before opening
up into a trough.  At the same time, the system should gradually
weaken.  This solution is consistent with the previous forecast and
the consensus aids.

For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 18.4N 117.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H  26/0600Z 17.6N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  26/1800Z 16.4N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  27/0600Z 15.1N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  27/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  28/0600Z 13.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

204355_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep1522.gif
15E_251800sair.jpg
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发表于 2022-9-27 18:23 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:20%/20%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is located south of the southern coast
of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development and a tropical depression could form by the end
of this week while the system moves generally westward to
west-northwestward off the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Western East Pacific:
A small area of low pressure, the remnants of Newton, is generating
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves
generally westward over the open eastern Pacific waters. By late
this week, environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Latto
two_pac_2d0.png
two_pac_2d2.png
two_pac_5d0.png
two_pac_5d2.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-28 19:11 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/40%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Southern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
area of low pressure located south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Western East Pacific:
The remnants of Newton are located nearly 1,000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although shower
and thunderstorm activity has decreased over the past several hours,
some additional slight development of the system is possible, and it
could briefly become a tropical depression again while it moves
generally westward over the western portion of the eastern North
Pacific. Environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for additional development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Latto
two_pac_2d0.png
two_pac_2d2.png
two_pac_5d0.png
two_pac_5d2.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-29 10:30 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:30%/30%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 28 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
south of the southern coast of Mexico continue to show signs of
organization. Further development is anticipated and a tropical
depression is likely to form as soon as tonight. The system is
forecast to move west-northwestward off the coast of southwestern
Mexico for the next couple of days, and then could turn northward
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Western East Pacific:
The remnants of Newton are located about 1,200 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low has weakened
today. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has
also decreased and become less organized during the past several
hours. Some slight development is still possible tonight or tomorrow
while the system moves slowly westward over the far western portion
of the eastern North Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster D. Zelinsky
two_pac_2d0.png
two_pac_2d2.png
two_pac_5d0.png
two_pac_5d2.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-30 00:23 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:10%/10%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 29 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Orlene, located a few hundred miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico.

1. Western East Pacific:
Shower activity associated with the remnants of Newton, located
about 1,300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula, have decreased since yesterday, and
environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for
development. The system is expected to move slowly westward over
the far western portion of the eastern North Pacific over the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Orlene are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Orlene are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

Forecaster Beven
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d0.png
two_pac_5d1.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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