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[2022] 墨西哥西南热带风暴“牛顿”(15E.Newton) - 环流细小

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超强台风

积分
11691
发表于 2022-9-24 10:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-24 12:00 编辑

669
WTPZ45 KNHC 240228
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The low-level center of Newton has once again become obscured
by convection flaring near the center. A recent GPM microwave pass,
the recent exposure of the low-level center, and scatterometer  
passes a few hours ago give high confidence in the location of the
center. The initial intensity for this advisory remains at 40 kt
based on a blend of the Dvorak analyses, including fixes from PHFO,  
SATCON and AODT.

Newton is expected to continue gradually weakening over the next
several days. The system will remain over SSTs between 27-28C
through 72 hours. The SHIPS and global models show the system will
encounter increasing southerly shear in about 12 to 24 hours.
The system will also be encountering drier air over the next
several days. All combined, these factors will lead to the slow
weakening of the system, transitioning to a remnant low and then
dissipating in 72 hours.

The system has moved a little more to the northwest with this   
advisory, driven in part by the bursts of convection that have been  
observed over the last several hours. This movement remains close
to the forecasted track. The system is expected to continue moving
to the northwest for the next 24 to 36 hours, before making a turn  
to the southwest as it weakens. The forecast track remains on the
southern side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 18.6N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  24/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  25/0000Z 19.3N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  25/1200Z 19.1N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  26/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
60H  26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell/M Ballard

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ep152022.20220924030420.gif

15E_240000sair24SEP2022_0000Z.jpg
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Super Typhoon

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14099
发表于 2022-9-24 10:48 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2022-9-23 18:50 编辑

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报:吕心艳  签发:吕心艳  2022 年 09 月 24 日 10 时
北大西洋热带风暴“赫尔米内”生成

时       间:24日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“赫尔米内”,HERMINE

中心位置:北纬18.9度、西经20.7度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:1002百帕

参考位置:佛得角博阿维斯塔岛北偏东方向约380公里的洋面上

变化过程:“赫尔米内”生成并加强到8级

预报结论:“赫尔米内”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度变化不大。


图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月24日08时00分)

“菲奥娜”向偏北方向移动

时       间:24日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“菲奥娜”,FIONA

中心位置:北纬42.3度、西经60.7度

强度等级:三级飓风

最大风力:17级(57米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级)

中心气压:935百帕

参考位置:百慕大群岛北偏东方向约1170公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“菲奥娜”强度维持不变

预报结论:“菲奥娜”将以每小时35-40公里的速度向偏北方向快速移动,强度逐渐减弱。


图2 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月24日08时00分)

“加斯顿”向偏西方向移动

时       间:24日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“加斯顿”,GASTON

中心位置:北纬39.1度、西经29.1度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级)

中心气压:999百帕

参考位置:亚速尔群岛东北方向约150公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“加斯顿”强度维持不变

预报结论:“加斯顿”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏西方向移动,强度缓慢减弱。


图3 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月24日08时00分)

“牛顿”向西偏北方向移动

时       间:24日08时(北京时)

海       域:东北太平洋

命       名:“牛顿”,NEWTON

中心位置:北纬18.5度、西经111.5度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:1003百帕

参考位置:墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣玛格丽塔岛偏南方向约650公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“牛顿”由10级减弱到8级

预报结论:“牛顿”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度变化不大。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220924100002400_XML_4.jpg
图4 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月24日08时00分)
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发表于 2022-9-24 16:40 | 显示全部楼层
SSD 06Z分析降至T1.0/1.5
TXPZ27 KNES 240619
TCSENP
A.  15E (NEWTON)
B.  24/0530Z
C.  18.7N
D.  112.1W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T1.0/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...GREATER THAN 0.2 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET
IS 1.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE
TO THE PULSING AND BLOB-LIKE NATURE OF THE MEASURED CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    24/0136Z 18.4N 111.7W SSMIS
...HOSLEY
20220924.053031.EP152022.abi.goes-17.Infrared-Gray.40kts.100p0.1p0.jpg
20220924.053031.EP152022.abi.goes-17.IR-BD.40kts.100p0.1p0.jpg
20220924.013400.EP152022.ssmis.F17.color89.40kts.98p5.1p0.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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超强台风

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发表于 2022-9-24 16:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-24 18:00 编辑

686
WTPZ45 KNHC 240846
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

While Newton is producing small areas of convection near and
north of the center, the storm is gradually becoming less
organized.  Satellite intensity estimates are generally in the
30-40 kt range, and based on the decreased organization since the
last advisory the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt.

While Newton is likely to stay over warm sea surface temperatures,
a combination of a dry air mass and southerly vertical wind shear
should cause weakening.  The new intensity forecast calls for the
cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 48 h and to dissipate
completely by 72 h.  This much longevity could be generous, as
several of the global models forecast an earlier dissipation.

The initial motion is 290/8 kt. A general west-northwest motion is
forecast for about 12 h, followed by a turn toward the west and
eventually west-southwest.  The track guidance is in good agreement
on this scenario, and the new forecast track is near the various
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 18.9N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  24/1800Z 19.2N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  25/0600Z 19.2N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  25/1800Z 18.9N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  26/0600Z 18.1N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  26/1800Z 16.8N 119.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

084705_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

ep152022.20220924091409.gif

15E_240600sair.jpg
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超强台风

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发表于 2022-9-24 17:15 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-24 17:20 编辑

全球热带气旋监测公报

预报:吕心艳  签发:吕心艳  2022 年 09 月 24 日 18 时


“牛顿”向西偏北方向移动

时       间:24日14时(北京时)

海       域:东北太平洋

命       名:“牛顿”,NEWTON

中心位置:北纬18.8度、西经112.1度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:1003百帕

参考位置:墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州马格达莱纳港偏南方向约650公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“牛顿”强度维持不变

预报结论:“牛顿”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度变化不大。


SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220924180002400_XML_1.jpg


图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月24日14时00分)


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发表于 2022-9-24 21:14 | 显示全部楼层
SSD 12Z分析升回T1.5/1.5
TXPZ27 KNES 241226
TCSENP
A.  15E (NEWTON)
B.  24/1130Z
C.  19.0N
D.  112.8W
E.  ONE/GOES-W
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0 BASED ON
A 24 HOUR SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE
PT BECAUSE THE MEASURED CLOUD FEATURES ARE NEWLY DEVELOPED.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    24/0938Z 19.1N 112.4W AMSR2
...GATLING
20220924.113032.EP152022.abi.goes-17.Infrared-Gray.35kts.100p0.1p0.jpg
20220924.113032.EP152022.abi.goes-17.IR-BD.35kts.100p0.1p0.jpg
20220924.093700.EP152022.amsr2.gcom-w1.color89.35kts.57p8.1p0.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-25 01:03 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 241448
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Small bursts of convection continue to form near the center of
Newton's center.  A recent satellite microwave pass still showed
a small curved band in the northern semicircle of the circulation.
Subjective and objective satellite classifications range between
25-35 kt.  The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35
kt.

The combination of low environmental relative humidities and
moderate vertical wind shear are expected to slowly weaken Newton,
despite the relatively warm sea surface temperatures.  There is
little change in the latest intensity forecast and Newton is still
expected to become a remnant low in two days and dissipate within
three days.

Newton is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt and gradually turning to
the west.  As convection slowly dwindles, the shallow vortex is
expected to turn westward and eventually southwestward in the
low-level flow in the next day or so.  The track guidance is
tightly clustered and the official forecast track is very similar to
the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 19.1N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 19.1N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  26/1200Z 17.5N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  27/0000Z 16.3N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
145039_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep1522.gif
15E_241200sair.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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超强台风

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发表于 2022-9-25 04:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-25 06:10 编辑

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 242046
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Visible satellite imagery show Newton is reduced to a low-level
swirl devoid of deep convection.  Satellite Dvorak estimates suggest
the intensity is between 25-30 kt.  Therefore, the initial intensity
has been lowered to 30 kt, and Newton is now a tropical depression.

It remains to be seen if Newton is able to develop new central
convection as it moves over a oceanic thermal ridge with warmer sea
surface temperatures.  Environmental conditions are not expected to
improve along the forecast track, however, and global models suggest
Newton will gradually spin down.  The NHC intensity is slightly
lower than the previous advisory and now shows the depression as a
remnant low in 24 hours.  However, given the current satellite
presentation, this could occur sooner.

The depression is moving just north of west at 8 kt.  The shallow
circulation is expected to move westward in the low-level wind flow
for the next day.  This is followed by a gradual turn to the
west-southwest and southwest until the end of the forecast period.
The current forecast track is largely an update of the previous
advisory prediction with only minor adjustments.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 19.4N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  25/0600Z 19.4N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  25/1800Z 18.9N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  26/0600Z 18.0N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  26/1800Z 17.0N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  27/0600Z 15.9N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

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ep152022.20220924212853.gif

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发表于 2022-9-25 09:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-25 09:50 编辑

全球热带气旋监测公报

预报:刘 达  签发:董 林  2022 年 09 月 25 日 10 时


“牛顿”已减弱为热带低压

时       间:25日08时(北京时)

海       域:东北太平洋

命       名:“牛顿”,NEWTON

中心位置:北纬19.5度、西经114.4度

强度等级:热带低压

最大风力:7级(15米/秒,相当于我国的热带低压)

中心气压:1005百帕

参考位置:墨西哥下加利福尼亚州恩赛纳达偏南方向约1390公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“牛顿”由8级减弱到7级

预报结论:“牛顿”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西偏北方向缓慢移动,强度继续减弱。

(这是关于“牛顿”的最后一期监测公报)

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220925100002400_XML_2.jpg


图2 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月25日08时00分)


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发表于 2022-9-25 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-25 12:05 编辑

053
WTPZ45 KNHC 250234
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

A little deep convection has reformed near the center of Newton
since the last advisory. While it isn't particularly well organized,
it was enough to get a 2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB, which
was the primary basis for the 30 kt initial intensity. The lack of
persistent or organized deep convection is probably due to a
combination of factors including a dry surrounding environment
(700-500 mb 50 to 55 percent RH according to SHIPS diagnostics) and
moderate wind shear.

Even though Newton is forecast to move over warmer SSTs during the
next few days, various global models suggest it could become
post-tropical sooner than that, and based on current trends that
could be as soon as tomorrow. The HWRF has a notably different
forecast, indicating Newton could stick around as a weak tropical
depression for at least another few days. The NHC forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory, showing Newton becoming
post-tropical in about a day and dissipating by day 3.

Newton has turned westward. Low-level winds should steer the
depression westward overnight, and then southwestward by late Sunday
or early Monday. Only minor adjustments were made to the official
track forecast which is based on the track consensus aids HCCA and
TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 19.5N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  25/1200Z 19.4N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  26/0000Z 18.7N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  26/1200Z 17.7N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  27/0000Z 16.6N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  27/1200Z 15.5N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

023511_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

ep152022.20220925030256.gif

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