墨西哥西南热带风暴“牛顿”(15E.Newton) - 环流细小

红豆棒冰冰

494
WTPZ45 KNHC 221446
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022

Newton remains a small, well-organized tropical cyclone.  A
microwave pass from 1210 UTC revealed a tiny eye-like feature.
While the central dense overcast has warmed, upper-level outflow is
still prominent in the southern and eastern portions of the
circulation, and new deep convection continues to form in the core.
There is still a relatively large range of satellite intensity
estimates (35-55 kt), likely due to the small size of the cyclone,
but the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt with the improved
microwave structure.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt.  A ridge to the
northeast is steering Newton and should be the dominant synoptic
feature influencing the track for the next few days.  The track
prediction is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and in
the center of the tightly clustered model guidance.

The intensity forecast for this system remains somewhat uncertain.
Global model guidance has largely missed the development and
intensification of Newton, again, possibly due to its size.
Statistical guidance suggests the cyclone will be in a conducive
atmospheric environment for the next 24 hours before the vertical
wind shear increases and mid-level moisture begins to decrease
further.  Sea surface temperatures are expected to also gradually
decrease as Newton moves near the cold wake of Kay and Madeline.
The official intensity forecast keeps Newton at 55 kt before
weakening begins in 24 hours through the end of the forecast as
oceanic and atmospheric conditions become less favorable.  The
prediction still shows Newton as a post-tropical remnant low by 72
hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 17.9N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  23/0000Z 18.1N 109.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  23/1200Z 18.4N 110.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  24/0000Z 19.0N 112.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  24/1200Z 19.4N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
60H  25/0000Z 19.6N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  25/1200Z 19.8N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

红豆棒冰冰

022
WTPZ45 KNHC 222042
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022

Convection in the core of Newton has collapsed rather suddenly in
the past few hours, likely due to the ingestion of dry air.  The
central dense overcast is largely gone and only small bursts of
convection are still firing near the estimated center where cloud
top temperatures are warmer than -70 degrees C.  Subjective Dvorak
classification still range between 35 to 55 kt, though the objective
estimates have been declining since the previous advisory.  The
initial intensity has therefore been lowered to 50 kt.

Newton continues to move west-northwestward at 285/6 kt.  The
cyclone is moving along the southwest periphery of a
well-established ridge centered over Texas.  This ridge will be the
main feature steering the storm until the shallow vortex turns
westward in about 3 days.  The model guidance envelope has shifted
northward beyond the 36 hour forecast period.  In response, the
official track forecast has been shift slightly to the right of
previous advisory after a day or so.

The small size of Newton has made it susceptible to modest changes
in the near-storm environment.  Though the statistical guidance is
analyzing low vertical wind shear, the satellite presentation of the
storm would suggest a dry air intrusion has interrupted
strengthening and induced weakening.  Forecast Intensity Guidance  
now indicates Newton will weaken and ultimately become a remnant low
in a couple of days or so.  The NHC intensity prediction no longer
shows strengthening and instead calls for gradual weakening until
dissipation at 96 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 18.0N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  23/0600Z 18.2N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  23/1800Z 18.7N 111.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  24/0600Z 19.3N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  24/1800Z 19.8N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  25/0600Z 20.0N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  25/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

POCKETBOX

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王海平  签发：高拴柱  2022 年 09 月 23 日 10 时
“加斯顿”向东偏北方向移动

时       间：23日08时（北京时）

海       域：北大西洋

命       名：“加斯顿”，GASTON

中心位置：北纬41.0度、西经31.2度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：10级（28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：999百帕

参考位置：亚速尔群岛北偏西方向约350公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“加斯顿”强度维持不变

预报结论：“加斯顿”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向东偏北方向缓慢移动，强度变化不大。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2022年09月23日08时00分）

“牛顿”向西偏北方向移动

时       间：23日08时（北京时）

海       域：东北太平洋

命       名：“牛顿”，NEWTON

中心位置：北纬17.8度、西经109.4度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：1000百帕

参考位置：墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角偏南方向约570公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“牛顿”由7级加强到10级

预报结论：“牛顿”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度变化不大。


图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2022年09月23日08时00分）

“菲奥娜”向北偏东方向移动

时       间：23日08时（北京时）

海       域：北大西洋

命       名：“菲奥娜”，FIONA

中心位置：北纬30.9度、西经69.0度

强度等级：四级飓风

最大风力：17级（59米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级）

中心气压：936百帕

参考位置：百慕大群岛西偏南方向约425公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“菲奥娜”强度维持不变

预报结论：“菲奥娜”将以每小时25-30公里的速度向北偏东方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。


图3 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2022年09月23日08时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

123
WTPZ45 KNHC 230235
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022

The satellite presentation of Newton has improved this evening, with
deep convection once again reforming over the low-level circulation
center. The latest satellite intensity estimates have changed little
during the past 6 hours, remaining between 35 and 55 knots, and as a
result the initial intensity will be held at 50 knots.

Newton continues to move slightly north of due west at 280/6 kt.  
The cyclone is moving along the southwest periphery of a mid-level
ridge over the south-central U.S. The system is expected to continue
to track slightly north of due west during the next couple of  days
as it is steered by this mid-level ridge. Drier environmental air
should ultimately lead to a collapse in deep convection over the
weekend, which should allow Newton to be steered by the low-level
flow by Sunday, with dissipation shortly thereafter. The NHC track
forecast was nudged slightly south of the previous advisory, and
lies very close to the multi-model track consensus guidance.

The environmental conditions remain conducive for maintaining deep
convection during the next day or two, before drier mid-level and
slightly stronger southerly shear begin to take more of a toll on
Newton. The intensity forecast shows little change in strength
tonight, with gradual weakening then expected until dissipation.
Newton is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low Saturday
night, if not sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 17.9N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  23/1200Z 18.2N 110.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  24/0000Z 18.8N 112.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  24/1200Z 19.4N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  25/0000Z 19.8N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  25/1200Z 19.7N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  26/0000Z 19.3N 118.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg/Jelsema

POCKETBOX

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王海平  签发：高拴柱  2022 年 09 月 23 日 18 时
“菲奥娜”向东北方向移动

时       间：23日14时（北京时）

海       域：北大西洋

命       名：“菲奥娜”，FIONA

中心位置：北纬32.4度、西经67.9度

强度等级：三级飓风

最大风力：16级（55米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级）

中心气压：935百帕

参考位置：百慕大群岛偏西方向约290公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“菲奥娜”由17级减弱到16级

预报结论：“菲奥娜”将以每小时40-45公里的速度向东北方向快速移动，强度变化不大。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2022年09月23日14时00分）

“牛顿”向西偏北方向移动

时       间：23日14时（北京时）

海       域：东北太平洋

命       名：“牛顿”，NEWTON

中心位置：北纬18.0度、西经110.1度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）

中心气压：999百帕

参考位置：墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣玛格丽塔岛南偏东方向约730公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“牛顿”由10级减弱到9级

预报结论：“牛顿”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度变化不大。


图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2022年09月23日14时00分）

“加斯顿”向东偏南方向移动

时       间：23日14时（北京时）

海       域：北大西洋

命       名：“加斯顿”，GASTON

中心位置：北纬40.8度、西经29.9度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：1002百帕

参考位置：亚速尔群岛偏北方向约310公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“加斯顿”强度维持不变

预报结论：“加斯顿”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东偏南方向移动，强度变化不大。


图3 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2022年09月23日14时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描显示环流细小

红豆棒冰冰

592
WTPZ45 KNHC 230850
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Tonight's satellite presentation consists of a pulsating, shapeless
convective mass just east of the surface circulation.  A 0430 UTC
METOP-B ASCAT pass revealed peak surface winds of 33 kt in the east
quadrant.  A blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB along with the likely under-sampled scatterometer pass
supports lowering the initial intensity to 45 kt.

Slow weakening is forecast while the cyclone moves into a dry,
stable lower boundary marine layer invading from the northwest.  The
statistical SHIPS and the global models also indicate that Newton
will encounter increasing southerly shear.  Again, these factors are
likely to result in slow weakening and degeneration to a remnant low
no later than Saturday night.

Newton's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
285/6 kt.  The cyclone is moving along the southwest periphery of a
subtropical ridge stretching westward from northwestern Mexico.
Newton should continue in this general direction through early
Sunday, then turn west-southwestward within the trade wind flow
through the end of the period as a vertically shallow remnant low.  
Only a slight adjustment was made to the south of the previous
forecast beyond the 48-hour period to come in closer agreement with
the NOAA HFIP HCCA model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 18.1N 110.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  23/1800Z 18.4N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  24/0600Z 19.1N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  24/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  25/0600Z 19.8N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  25/1800Z 19.2N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  26/0600Z 18.1N 118.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析降至T1.5/2.5

TXPZ27 KNES 231218
TCSENP
A.  15E (NEWTON)
B.  23/1130Z
C.  18.0N
D.  110.2W
E.  FIVE/GOES-W
F.  T1.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN POSITION AND INTENSITY. 0855Z AMSR2
SUGGESTED CENTER WAS FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CENTER
COULD NOT BE DISCERNED IN THE LOWER RESOLUTION 1118Z SSMIS. 3/10 BANDING
RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET OF 2.0 IS BASED ON SLOW WEAKENING TREND. PT IS
1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT BECAUSE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    23/0855Z 18.0N 110.1W AMSR2
...TURK

红豆棒冰冰

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 231449
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Newton has had deep, persistent convection through the morning
with cloud top temperatures are below -75 degrees C.  Microwave
imagery shows a small inner core, but not with the same definition
as yesterday.  A blend of the satellite Dvorak estimates supports
an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory.

Gradual weakening is expected while the storm moves into a drier,
more stable environment to the north.  Statistical model guidance
also indicates vertical wind shear to increase in a day or so which
is likely to contribute to additional weakening.  Eventual
transition into a remnant low is forecast within about three days,
and little change was made to the previous NHC prediction.

Newton is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt along the
southwest edge of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico,
although there is some uncertainty in the initial position since
the low-level center has tucked up underneath a burst of convection.
The center is estimated to be slightly north of the previous track
forecast, and therefore the short-term model track guidance has
shifted northward as well.  Beyond 24 hours, the official track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and within the
small spread of the multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 18.4N 110.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  24/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  24/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  25/0000Z 19.7N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  25/1200Z 19.5N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  26/0000Z 18.6N 118.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  26/1200Z 17.8N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 232031
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022

The low-level center of Newton has become exposed, with the
convection sheared to the east and southeast of the center.
A census of the Dvorak estimates would support an initial
intensity around 45 kt. With visible imagery since fix time
continuing the shearing trend, the initial intensity for
this advisory is set to 40 kt. A 1635Z scatterometer pass
captured Newton, further supporting the low level center
location of the low level center. This places the center
about 15 nm to the south of the previous track.

Further weakening is expected as the storm moves to the west
into a drier and more stable airmass. SSTs are near 81F with
little change expected along the forecast track, so we not expecting
the SSTs to be much of a factor in the weakening of the system.
Newton is expected to transition to a remnant low and then
dissipate within 72 hours.

Newton continues to move to the west-northwest, but the short
term forward motion has slowed to around 4 kt as it moves along
the southwest edge of a mid-level ridge. The track has been
shifted just a touch to the south, but remains on the southern
side of the guidance envelope which remain tightly spread,
particularly in the short term.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 18.2N 111.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  24/0600Z 18.6N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  24/1800Z 19.0N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  25/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  25/1800Z 18.5N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
60H  26/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell/M Ballard