墨西哥西南热带风暴“牛顿”(15E.Newton) - 环流细小

1007圆规

EP, 96, 2022092100,   , BEST,   0, 167N, 1021W,  25, 1008, DB

---

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located just off the coast of southwestern Mexico has shown
signs of becoming better organized today. Environmental conditions
are expected to support some additional development of this system
as it moves west-northwestward near or just south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight, and then away from
the coast of Mexico through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

炎煌深沉

WTPN21 PHNC 211300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4N 103.9W TO 17.8N 108.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3N 104.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) IS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N
104.1W, APPROXIMATELY 1213 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210852Z GMI 89 GHZ GMI IMAGE
DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION WITH SHALLOW RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-
10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96E WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221300Z.
//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 21 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a broad
area of low pressure located just off the coast of southwestern
Mexico.  Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
additional development and a tropical depression is likely to form
over the next day or two.  This system is expected to move
west-northwestward near or just south of southwestern Mexico over
the next day or so, and then away from the coast of Mexico through
the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. South of Central America and Southeastern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue off the coast of
southern Mexico and Central America in association with a trough of
low pressure. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to
occur while it meanders off the coast of southern Mexico through
the remainder of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Gallina

炎煌深沉

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 212042
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022

A new tropical depression has formed in the east Pacific basin.  
The satellite presentation of now Tropical Depression Fifteen-E
has improved over the past 24 hours.  Visible imagery shows decent
upper-level outflow in the western semicircle and cold cloud tops as
low as -70 degrees C.  Due to the increase in convective
organization, the initial intensity is set to 30 kt, slightly
higher than the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving just north of west at 275/9 kt. It is
moving along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered
over Texas.  This ridge is expected to steer the system to the
west-northwest for the next couple of days at a gradually slower
forward speed.  The model guidance is relatively tightly
clustered and the NHC track forecast is close to the multi-model
consensus aids.  

The environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally
conducive for slight development over the next couple days.
Oceanic surface temperatures, atmospheric moisture and vertical
wind shear are likely to allow the depression to reach and maintain
tropical cyclone strength for the next couple of days.  Beyond that
time frame, the cyclone is forecast to traverse cooler waters and
enter a drier, more stable environment.  The system is expected to
become a remnant low by 72 hours and open into a trough shortly
thereafter.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 17.1N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  22/0600Z 17.5N 106.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  22/1800Z 17.8N 107.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  23/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  23/1800Z 18.2N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  24/0600Z 18.5N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  24/1800Z 18.9N 112.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Jelsema

炎煌深沉

952
WTPZ65 KNHC 220052
TCUEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
755 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NEWTON...

Satellite images indicate that Tropical Depression Fifteen-E has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Newton with maximum
sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. This
intensity will be accounted for in the advisory being released at
1000 pm CDT (0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 755 PM CDT...0050 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 106.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Jelsema

炎煌深沉

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 220245
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 21 2022

The satellite presentation of the recently formed Tropical
Depression Fifteen has improved considerably during the past 24
hours. A well defined banding structure has developed and held in
place during the past several hours, with nice outflow evident
aloft in satellite imagery. The latest intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB were 35 knots, while ADT and AiDT from UW-CIMSS indicating
slightly lower. These intensity estimates appear to be a bit behind
the curve given the banding structure and organization seen in
recent microwave imagery. In fact, TAFB provided a Dvorak pattern
T-number of 3.0 (45 kt), which is the basis for the initial
intensity of this advisory.

The initial motion estimate on Newton is to the west-northwest
or 285/11 kt. This general motion with a gradual slowing in the
forward speed is expected during the next several days as the
cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a
weakness aloft to the west associated with the remnants of former
tropical cyclone Madeline. The NHC track forecast was adjusted
slightly faster and a bit north of the previous forecast, and is
close to the tightly clustered consensus track guidance.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for some additional
strengthening tonight and Wednesday, as vertical wind shear remains
low, mid-levels moist, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain at
27/28C. Beyond this, while shear remains low, the mid-levels dry out
considerably and SSTs decrease to near 26C. This should lead to
steady weakening with Newton degenerating into a post-tropical
remnant low Friday night or Saturday, and dissipating shortly
thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward to
account for the increase in initial intensity, and is roughly
between the statistical and dynamical intensity aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 17.6N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  22/1200Z 18.0N 108.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  23/0000Z 18.3N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  23/1200Z 18.6N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  24/0000Z 18.9N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
60H  24/1200Z 19.3N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown/Jelsema

POCKETBOX

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王 慧  签发：周冠博  2022 年 09 月 22 日 18 时
“加斯顿”向偏东方向移动

时       间：22日14时（北京时）

海       域：北大西洋

命       名：“加斯顿”，GASTON

中心位置：北纬40.1度、西经36.3度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：10级（28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：1000百帕

参考位置：亚速尔群岛西偏北方向约590公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“加斯顿”强度变化不大

预报结论：“加斯顿”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向偏东方向移动，强度变化不大。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2022年09月22日14时00分）

“菲奥娜”向北偏东方向移动

时       间：22日14时（北京时）

海       域：北大西洋

命       名：“菲奥娜”，FIONA

中心位置：北纬26.8度、西经71.1度

强度等级：四级飓风

最大风力：17级（60米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级）

中心气压：934百帕

参考位置：百慕大群岛西南方向约860公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“菲奥娜”强度维持17级

预报结论：“菲奥娜”将以每小时25公里的速度向北偏东方向移动，强度维持。


图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2022年09月22日14时00分）

东北太平洋热带风暴“牛顿”生成

时       间：22日14时（北京时）

海       域：东北太平洋

命       名：“牛顿”，NEWTON

中心位置：北纬17.6度、西经107.6度

强度等级：热带风暴

最大风力：10级（26米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：1000百帕

参考位置：墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角南偏东方向约640公里的洋面上

变化过程：“牛顿”在今天上午生成，加强到10级

预报结论：“牛顿”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度逐渐加强。


图3 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2022年09月22日14时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022

Newton is a small, but well-organized tropical cyclone. The earlier
banding pattern has now evolved more into a very small central
dense overcast. While we have not received any recent microwave or
scatterometer data in the last 6 hours, the earlier GPM pass at 2207
UTC suggested a formative inner core was taking shape. Satellite
intensity estimates cover a large range this morning, from
T2.5/35-kt from SAB, T3.5/55-kt from TAFB, and T2.8/41-kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT. Favoring the higher end of those estimates, the
initial intensity was raised to 50-kt for this advisory.

Newton continues to move to the west-northwest but is beginning to
slow down somewhat, with the latest estimate at 285/8 kt. This
general motion with an additional slow down in forward motion is
expected over the next 24-36 hours as the system remains steered by
a prominent mid-level ridge to the northeast. The NHC track this
cycle was adjusted ever so slightly faster, but remains close to
the tightly clustered consensus aids.

The intensity forecast is a bit tricky for Newton. The storm is very
small, and has not been recently sampled by scatterometer or
microwave imagery, so it is unclear if the inner core structure seen
earlier on microwave yesterday evening has persisted. Vertical wind
shear, as diagnosed by the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS is expected to
remain at or under 10 kts for the next 2-3 days. However, the
tropical cyclone will be moving over the cold wake induced by
Hurricane Kay and more recently Tropical Storm Madeline over the
last several weeks. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) drop below 26 C
in around 24 hours. The global models respond to this environment by
showing all convection collapsing near Newton in 24-48 hours and it
seems that the small circulation will not be able to survive these
anomalously cold SSTs. Then again, the cyclone is so small, the
guidance may not be resolving the current structure of the cyclone
well. Thus the latest NHC intensity forecast calls for a little bit
of additional intensification today, similar to the SHIPS guidance
in the short-term. After that, the cooler SSTs should induce a
weakening trend, and Newton is still expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours, continuing to blend the
dynamical and statistical intensity aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 17.7N 107.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  22/1800Z 18.0N 109.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  23/0600Z 18.2N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  23/1800Z 18.6N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  24/0600Z 19.2N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
60H  24/1800Z 19.3N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  25/0600Z 19.3N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析维持T2.5

TXPZ27 KNES 221227
TCSENP
A.  15E (NEWTON)
B.  22/1130Z
C.  17.8N
D.  108.1W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON
A DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前微波扫描似乎显示风眼结构