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[2022] 墨西哥湾东南部四级飓风“伊安”(09L.Ian) - 强势吹袭佛罗里达 - NHC:135KT

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论坛版主-副热带高压

It's Always With Me.

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发表于 2022-9-20 20:41 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2022-10-1 10:00 编辑

AL, 98, 2022092012,   , BEST,   0, 103N,  530W,  25, 1011, DB

20220920.1230.goes-16.ir.98L.INVEST.25kts.1011mb.10.3N.53W.100pc.jpg
two_atl_2d2.png
two_atl_5d2.png

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms while moving westward at 15-20 mph.  Gradual
development of this system is forecast during the next several days
as the system approaches the Windward Islands, and a tropical
depression could form by the latter part of this week as the system
moves into the eastern and central Caribbean sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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参与人数 2金钱 +3 威望 +13 收起 理由
颱風巨爵 + 10 NHC:≥130KT
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 98L

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我吹过你吹过的晚风
是否看过同样 风景
像扰乱时差留在错位时空
终是空 是空
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发表于 2022-9-20 22:09 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 06Z系集各成员预报逐渐西行,发展成旋机会较大

natl.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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强台风

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发表于 2022-9-20 22:12 | 显示全部楼层
长久或威胁佛罗里达
一路伴盈,形盈不离,如盈随形,盈随心动img]https://bbs.typhoon.org.cn/static/image/smiley/default/cry.gif[/img]
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Sing For You~

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发表于 2022-9-20 22:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-9-20 23:00 编辑

ABNT20 KNHC 201453
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1055 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located near the Turks and Caicos islands, and on newly
formed Tropical Depression Eight, located over the north-central
Atlantic Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Updated: Satellite data indicate that the tropical wave located
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has become better
organized this morning.  Additional development is expected, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Interests in the
Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system
as heavy rainfall and gusty winds could affect these islands
beginning on Wednesday.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

two_atl_2d1.png
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强台风

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发表于 2022-9-20 23:44 | 显示全部楼层
wg8vor-1663688490705.gif wg8conv-1663688515400.gif wg8dvg-1663688505289.gif

涡度泛红,辐合较好,辐散极强。
一路伴盈,形盈不离,如盈随形,盈随心动img]https://bbs.typhoon.org.cn/static/image/smiley/default/cry.gif[/img]
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发表于 2022-9-21 12:03 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:70%/90%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located near the Turks and Caicos islands, and on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located over the north-central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity a few
hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. The system continues to
show signs of organization and it will likely become a tropical
depression within the next two or three days. The disturbance is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward
Islands late Wednesday and then move toward the central Caribbean
Sea late this week. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely
monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty
winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
at least gradual development of the system for a couple days
thereafter while the system moves slowly northward between west
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Jelsema
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d1.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-21 12:23 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 18Z系集部分成员继续支持98L西行发展成旋

natl.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-22 06:16 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-9-22 07:30 编辑

al982022.gif

WTNT21 KNGU 212100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (98L)//
RMKS/1.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 62.2W TO 12.3N 67.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 62.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2.A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
3.THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 222100Z.//
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发表于 2022-9-23 06:20 | 显示全部楼层
al982022.gif

WTNT21 KNGU 222100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (98L) REISSUED//
REF/A/FLTWEACEN NORFOLK VA/212100Z SEP 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(WTNT21 KNGU 212100)//
RMKS/1.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 66.2W TO 14.0N 70.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 66.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS:AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3.THIS MESSAGE SUPERSEDES REF A. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED,
SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO
WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 232100Z.//
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发表于 2022-9-23 10:23 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:90%/90%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda,
and on Tropical Storm Gaston, located a couple of hundred miles
northwest of the central Azores.

1. Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
low pressure system located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
about 150 miles east-northeast of Curacao.  The upper-level wind
environment over the low is expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the central Caribbean Sea.  Locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely to affect northwestern Venezuela, the ABC island
chain, and northeastern Colombia through Friday.  Interests in
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave and
located about 100 miles west of Dakar, Senegal, is producing a
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms off the coasts of
Senegal and Mauritania.  Although the system is pulling in nearby
dry air, environmental conditions are forecast to otherwise be
conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form
by this weekend while the system moves northward at about 10 mph,
parallel to the coast of west Africa.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased since earlier today
in association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Despite
marginal environmental conditions, some slow development of this
system is possible over the next several days while it drifts
northwestward or northward over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Berg
two_atl_2d0.png
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d1.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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