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[2022] 亚速尔群岛以西热带风暴“加斯顿”(08L.Gaston) - 东行影响亚速尔群岛

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发表于 2022-9-25 23:49 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTNT43 KNHC 251436
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

The large convective burst that fired overnight and this morning
appears to have lead to Gaston's center reforming under the deep
convection further to the north and west. This also evident in
GOES-16 GLM lightning data that showed a clear arcing pattern
embedded in the convection prior to the new center becoming evident
on visible satellite imagery.  Since then, the convection has been
rapidly decaying, as the storm loses instability support from a
sharp upper-level trough as it moves into its axis. Subjective and
objective Dvorak numbers this morning were still CI 3.0/45-kt from
TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT. While scatterometer data largely missed the
circulation earlier, it still showed tropical storm force winds
extending well to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity
is being maintained at 45 kt for this advisory.

Gaston, post reformation, has made its westward turn, with the
latest motion estimate at 270/10 kt. Gaston is currently situated
between an anomalously strong deep-layer ridge to its northeast, and
a more climatological ridge to its southwest. These features are
forecast to merge over the next 24-48 hours to the northwest of
Gaston, and should help steer the storm more to the west-southwest
for the remainder of its lifespan. The guidance this cycle is just a
bit further south and west compared to the previous cycle, and the
latest NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction, following
the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA.

Gaston might have had its last convective hurrah this morning, with
the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and HWRF suggesting the storm will struggle to
produce organized convection from here on out. This could be related
to the upper-level flow pattern, where the storm is moving out of an
environment favorable for ascent into an environment favorable for
descent, limiting convection, especially as it continues to traverse
24-25C SSTs. The latest forecast still shows Gaston becoming a
post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours, but if the convection does
not return before then, this evolution could occur sooner. The low
should persist another day or two before it opens up into a trough
in the subtropical Atlantic in about 72 hours, in agreement with the
majority of the global model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 39.4N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  26/0000Z 39.2N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  26/1200Z 38.7N  39.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H  27/0000Z 38.0N  41.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  27/1200Z 37.4N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  28/0000Z 36.8N  47.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
143505_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al082022.20220925152413.gif
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-26 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2022-9-25 20:05 编辑

WTNT43 KNHC 260234
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gaston Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 26 2022

Gaston lacks organized deep convection and has become post-tropical.
Organized convection is not expected to redevelop due to hostile
upper-level winds and a dry surrounding environment. Therefore, this
is the final NHC advisory. ASCAT data valid at 2353 UTC indicated
peak winds between 30-35 kt on the north side of Gaston. Assuming a
little undersampling may have occurred, the initial intensity was
set on the high end of those estimates at 35 kt.

Gaston is forecast to move generally west-southwestward for the next
day or so, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge that extends across
most of the northern Atlantic. Since deep convection is not expected
to redevelop and no baroclinic forcing is expected to otherwise
sustain the remnants of Gaston, the cyclone should gradually spin
down until it dissipates in about 48 h. No significant changes were
made to the NHC track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 38.6N  38.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H  26/1200Z 38.1N  39.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  27/0000Z 37.4N  41.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  27/1200Z 36.8N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

023944_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al082022.gif
20220925.2353.mtb.ASCAT.wind.08L.GASTON.40kts-1000mb.392N.370W.25km.noqc.jpg
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Super Typhoon

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发表于 2022-9-26 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报:柳龙生  签发:黄奕武  2022 年 09 月 26 日 10 时
“加斯顿”向西偏南方向移动

时       间:26日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“加斯顿”,GASTON

中心位置:北纬38.7度、西经37.7度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:1000百帕

参考位置:加拿大哈利法克斯东偏南方向约2240公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“加斯顿”强度维持不变

预报结论:“加斯顿”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏南方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220926100002400_XML_1.jpg
图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月26日08时00分)


“伊恩”向北偏西方向移动

时       间:26日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“伊恩”,IAN

中心位置:北纬17.0度、西经80.8度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级)

中心气压:991百帕

参考位置:古巴哈瓦那南偏东方向约700公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“伊恩”由9级加强到10级

预报结论:“伊恩”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度逐渐加强。


图2 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月26日08时00分)
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发表于 2022-9-26 11:24 | 显示全部楼层
影响亚速尔群岛的时间算比较长的了
最新台风动向欢迎加入{气象乐园}群55541191
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超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
14701
发表于 2022-9-26 16:40 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报:柳龙生  签发:黄奕武  2022 年 09 月 26 日 18 时
“加斯顿”减弱为热带低压

时       间:26日14时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“加斯顿”,GASTON

中心位置:北纬38.1度、西经38.3度

强度等级:热带低压

最大风力:7级(15米/秒,相当于我国的热带低压)

中心气压:1005百帕

参考位置:加拿大哈利法克斯东偏南方向约2220公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“加斯顿”由9级减弱到7级

预报结论:“加斯顿”减弱为热带低压,强度还将进一步减弱。

(这是关于“加斯顿”的最后一期监测公报)

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220926180002400_XML_1.jpg
图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月26日14时00分)


“伊恩”向西北方向移动

时       间:26日14时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“伊恩”,IAN

中心位置:北纬17.7度、西经81.7度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:11级(30米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级)

中心气压:988百帕

参考位置:古巴哈瓦那偏南方向约600公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“伊恩”由9级加强到11级

预报结论:“伊恩”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐加强。


图2 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月26日14时00分)
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