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[2022] 亚速尔群岛以西热带风暴“加斯顿”(08L.Gaston) - 东行影响亚速尔群岛

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发表于 2022-9-24 17:15 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-24 17:25 编辑

全球热带气旋监测公报

预报:吕心艳  签发:吕心艳  2022 年 09 月 24 日 18 时


“加斯顿”向西偏南方向移动

时       间:24日14时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“加斯顿”,GASTON

中心位置:北纬38.7度、西经29.7度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:999百帕

参考位置:亚速尔群岛北偏东方向约80公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“加斯顿”由10级减弱到9级

预报结论:“加斯顿”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西偏南方向移动,强度变化不大。


SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220924180002400_XML_3.jpg


图3 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月24日14时00分)


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发表于 2022-9-24 20:26 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTNT33 KNHC 241153
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
1200 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM GMT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 30.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM GMT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 30.1 West, just west of
the central Azores. Gaston is moving toward the west-southwest near
7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the west is anticipated later
today, followed by a turn to the southwest by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and
Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through today.  See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF:  Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores through today.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL:  Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the western and central
Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
115446_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-25 00:56 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTNT43 KNHC 241455
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

Gaston has lost most of its deep convection and it is currently an
exposed low-level circulation.  The closest relatively deep
convective activity is south of Pico Island over 100 miles away
from the center and likely terrain-induced. Though a recent
scatterometer pass missed the center of Gaston, it did show an area
of tropical-storm-force winds of around 35 kt to the east of the
center.  Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40
kt, slightly higher than the satellite intensity estimates.

Hostile environmental conditions have weakened Gaston considerably.
The strong vertical wind shear and dry mid-level humidities are not
expected to improve for the remainder of the forecast period, and
additional weakening is likely.  The official forecast is similar to
the previous prediction and still shows Gaston becoming fully
post-tropical within 12 hours.  A couple of the global models,
however, indicate a mid-latitude shortwave trough/baroclinic zone
interacting with post-tropical Gaston early Sunday morning could
develop isolated deep convection, but this should be a short-lived
event.

The storm is moving west-southwestward at an estimated 245/8 kt.  A
building mid-level ridge to the north is expected to steer Gaston
to the west through Monday morning, and to the west-southwest
until it dissipates near the end of the week.  The NHC forecast
track is shifted slightly south of the previous advisory track,
likely due to the southern shift of the initial position.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions over the western and central Azores
today should diminish today as Gaston moves away from the islands.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores through Saturday.  This rainfall may result in
landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 38.0N  30.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 38.2N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H  25/1200Z 38.4N  35.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H  26/0000Z 38.2N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  26/1200Z 37.5N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  27/0000Z 36.7N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/1200Z 35.6N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  28/1200Z 33.0N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
151218_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al082022.20220924155629.gif
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-25 04:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-25 06:10 编辑

000
WTNT43 KNHC 242048
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

Gaston still lacks any deep convection near the center of its
circulation.  There is a burst of convection, mentioned in the
previous advisory, that is now northwest of Faial island and over a
hundred miles from the center of the storm. The subjective and
objective Dvorak classifications have decreased to 30-40 kt.
Thus, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt to be a blend
of these estimates.

Strong vertical wind shear and dry environmental conditions
continue to weaken Gaston.  These adverse atmospheric conditions
are not expected to improve for the remainder of the forecast
period, and the storm should gradually weaken.  The official
forecast is slightly lower than the previous prediction due to the
decrease in initial intensity.  Gaston is still expected to become
fully post-tropical within 12 hours.  Global model simulated
satellite imagery, however, indicate a mid-latitude shortwave
trough interacting with post-tropical Gaston early Sunday morning
could develop isolated deep convection, but this should be a
short-lived event.

Gaston has made its turn to the west and is moving 280/10 kt.  The
storm should continue to move generally westward for the next day
or so as it is steered by a building ridge to the north.  The ridge
is then expected to turn the cyclone to the west-southwest and
southwest through the end of the forecast period.  The model
guidance has shifted to the north this forecast cycle.  The
official track forecast follows the northward guidance trend and
now lies on the south side of the guidance, though north of the
previous advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions over the western Azores should
diminish overnight as Gaston moves away from the islands.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and
central Azores through early Saturday.  This rainfall may result in
landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 38.2N  31.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/0600Z 38.6N  33.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H  25/1800Z 38.6N  36.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  26/0600Z 38.3N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  26/1800Z 38.0N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  27/0600Z 37.5N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/1800Z 37.0N  45.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

205416_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

al082022.20220924213804.gif
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发表于 2022-9-25 09:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-25 09:50 编辑

全球热带气旋监测公报

预报:刘 达  签发:董 林  2022 年 09 月 25 日 10 时


“加斯顿”强度继续减弱

时       间:25日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“加斯顿”,GASTON

中心位置:北纬38.5度、西经32.8度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:1002百帕

参考位置:加拿大哈利法克斯东偏南方向约2630公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“加斯顿”由10级减弱到8级

预报结论:“加斯顿”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度继续减弱。


SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220925100002400_XML_4.jpg


图4 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月25日08时00分)

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发表于 2022-9-25 10:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-25 12:05 编辑

369
WTNT43 KNHC 250231
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

Gaston has been interacting with an upper-level trough just to its
west for the past several hours, which has helped to regenerate deep
convection over the northern semicircle. This has bought Gaston some
more time as a tropical cyclone. A pair of recent scatterometer
overpasses revealed a swath of 35-42 kt winds over the northern
semicircle of the tropical storm, which indicates that it is
stronger than previously estimated. Assuming some undersampling by
the scatterometer, the initial intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt
to reflect this new data.

The upper trough that is helping to maintain the deep convection is
forecast to lift northward later this morning and be replaced by a
ridge, which should induce strong northwesterly shear over Gaston.
The combination of this shear, relatively cool SSTs of about 24
degrees C, and the presence of dry air should cause Gaston's current
convection to dissipate today, resulting in the system becoming
post-tropical. The NHC intensity forecast was adjusted higher
through 24 h due to the adjusted initial intensity and is unchanged
from the previous forecast after that time.

Gaston continues its westward motion at 10 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge. By Monday, the cyclone is forecast to turn
west-southwestward and possibly southwestward as the ridge builds
its northwest. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from
the previous one and closely follows the track consensus guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions over the western Azores should diminish
by midday as Gaston moves away from the islands.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and
central Azores through midday. This rainfall may result in
landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 38.6N  33.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  25/1200Z 38.9N  35.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H  26/0000Z 38.7N  37.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H  26/1200Z 38.4N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  27/0000Z 37.9N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  27/1200Z 37.2N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  28/0000Z 36.8N  46.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

023217_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

al082022.20220925031105.gif
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发表于 2022-9-25 16:22 | 显示全部楼层
172
WTNT33 KNHC 250531
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
600 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

...GASTON STILL MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
AZORES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM GMT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 33.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM GMT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 33.9 West. Gaston is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today.  A turn to the
west-southwest is forecast by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and
Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today or
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western Azores for a few more hours.  See products issued by the
meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF:  Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores today.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL:  Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the western and central
Azores.  This will result in storm total rainfall maxima up to 6
inches which may result in landslides and areas of flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
053252_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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Super Typhoon

积分
14701
发表于 2022-9-25 18:32 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报:刘 达  签发:董 林  2022 年 09 月 25 日 18 时
“加斯顿”强度继续减弱

时       间:25日14时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“加斯顿”,GASTON

中心位置:北纬38.9度、西经34.0度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:997百帕

参考位置:加拿大哈利法克斯偏东方向约2520公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“加斯顿”强度维持不变

预报结论:“加斯顿”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度继续减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220925180002400_XML_1.jpg
图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月25日14时00分)


“伊恩”向西偏北方向移动

时       间:25日14时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“伊恩”,IAN

中心位置:北纬14.6度、西经78.3度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:1002百帕

参考位置:古巴哈瓦那南偏东方向约1040公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“伊恩”由8级加强到9级

预报结论:“伊恩”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度还将继续加强。


图2 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月25日14时00分)
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发表于 2022-9-25 19:36 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTNT43 KNHC 250840
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
900 AM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

Gaston continues to generate an area of deep convection near and to
the north of the center, as the interaction with the upper-level
trough mentioned in the previous advisory continues to provide a
favorable environment.  The initial intensity remains 45 kt based
on the earlier scatterometer data and a satellite intensity
estimate of 45 kt from TAFB.

The global models suggest that the favorable trough interaction
should end in the next 12 h or so, and after that time Gaston
should experience strong northwesterly shear in a convergent
upper-level environment.  This, combined with cool sea surface
temperatures of 24-25C and a dry airmass should cause the
convection to dissipate and Gaston to become post-tropical.  The
new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous
forecast, with the most significant change being keep the system as
a tropical cyclone at the 12 h point.

Gaston has moved a little to the right of the previous forecast
with the initial motion 285/9.  A building low- to mid-level ridge
to the north and northwest of the cyclone should cause it to turn
westward later today and then west-southwestward, with that motion
continuing until the system dissipates.  Since the last advisory,
the track guidance has shifted southward in the 24-72 h period.  
So, the new forecast track is also shifted southward, with the new
track just to the north of the consensus models.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions over the western Azores should diminish
by midday as Gaston moves away from the islands.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and
central Azores through midday. This rainfall may result in
landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 39.0N  34.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  25/1800Z 39.0N  36.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  26/0600Z 38.7N  38.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H  26/1800Z 38.1N  40.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  27/0600Z 37.5N  42.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  27/1800Z 36.8N  45.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  28/0600Z 36.1N  48.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
090510_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al082022.20220925091906.gif
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-25 21:29 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTNT33 KNHC 251148
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
1200 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

...CENTER OF GASTON REFORMS FURTHER WEST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE AZORES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM GMT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 35.8W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Azores Meteorological Service has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the islands of Flores and Corvo in the western
Azores.

For additional storm information specific to your area, please
monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM GMT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston has
reformed near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 35.8 West. Gaston is
now moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A gradual turn to
the west-southwest is forecast by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and
Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or on
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

SURF:  Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores today.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL:  Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across the western Azores today. This
will result in storm total rainfall maxima up to 6 inches which may
result in landslides and areas of flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin
114814_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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