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[2022] 亚速尔群岛以西热带风暴“加斯顿”(08L.Gaston) - 东行影响亚速尔群岛

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超强台风

Super Typhoon

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发表于 2022-9-23 16:20 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报:王海平  签发:高拴柱  2022 年 09 月 23 日 18 时
“菲奥娜”向东北方向移动

时       间:23日14时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“菲奥娜”,FIONA

中心位置:北纬32.4度、西经67.9度

强度等级:三级飓风

最大风力:16级(55米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级)

中心气压:935百帕

参考位置:百慕大群岛偏西方向约290公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“菲奥娜”由17级减弱到16级

预报结论:“菲奥娜”将以每小时40-45公里的速度向东北方向快速移动,强度变化不大。


图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月23日14时00分)

“牛顿”向西偏北方向移动

时       间:23日14时(北京时)

海       域:东北太平洋

命       名:“牛顿”,NEWTON

中心位置:北纬18.0度、西经110.1度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:999百帕

参考位置:墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣玛格丽塔岛南偏东方向约730公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“牛顿”由10级减弱到9级

预报结论:“牛顿”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度变化不大。


图2 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月23日14时00分)

“加斯顿”向东偏南方向移动

时       间:23日14时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“加斯顿”,GASTON

中心位置:北纬40.8度、西经29.9度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级)

中心气压:1002百帕

参考位置:亚速尔群岛偏北方向约310公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“加斯顿”强度维持不变

预报结论:“加斯顿”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东偏南方向移动,强度变化不大。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220923180002400_XML_3.jpg
图3 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月23日14时00分)
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发表于 2022-9-23 19:10 | 显示全部楼层
360
WTNT43 KNHC 230853
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

Gaston's cloud pattern has changed considerably in appearance
since yesterday.  A tropical cyclone axisymmetric wind
field that is typically concentrated about the surface center has
transformed to a more asymmetric pattern with considerable
expansion to the northeast due to the brisk mid-latitude
westerlies and the sub-25C cool oceanic surface temperatures.  
Involvement between Gaston and a major shortwave trough/baroclinic
zone noted in water vapor imagery and a recent AMSR2 microwave pass
has resulted in a delta rain shield north of the exposed surface
circulation.  A subsequent polar jet finger is visible in imagery
northeast of the center, with possible warm seclusion development.  
All these attributes may well be leading to post-tropical cyclone
transition.  The subjective satellite intensity estimates and a
recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis yield an initial intensity of 50 kt
for this advisory.  Gaston is forecast to slowly weaken while the
cyclone completes its post-tropical transition in about 36 hours or
so.  The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one
and is in line with the IVCN intensity consensus model.

Gaston has begun its anticyclonic loop and is moving
east-southeastward, or 115/8 kt.  The cyclone is expected to turn
toward the southeast today and southward along the southern
periphery of mid-tropospheric ridge building to the north through
Saturday morning while moving near the westernmost Azores.  
Afterward, Gaston should generally move toward the west-southwest
and westward through the end of the period.  The official forecast
is nudged slightly to the north of the previous one in the short
term, but closer after that, and is based on the various consensus
aids.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
western Azores, and will likely spread to the central Azores later
today.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores today through Saturday.  This rainfall may
result in landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 40.5N  29.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  23/1800Z 39.7N  28.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  24/0600Z 38.6N  29.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  24/1800Z 38.2N  31.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  25/0600Z 38.6N  33.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H  25/1800Z 38.6N  36.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  26/0600Z 38.6N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H  27/0600Z 39.1N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  28/0600Z 38.2N  45.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts
085600_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al082022.20220923095140.gif
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-23 20:31 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTNT33 KNHC 231150
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
1200 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

...GASTON MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AZORES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TODAY AND SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM GMT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.5N 29.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM GMT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 40.5 North, longitude 29.2 West. Gaston is
moving toward the east-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A slower
southeastward motion is forecast today followed by a southward, and
then southwestward, motion tonight and early Saturday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near or over portions
of the Azores today through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is expected over the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gaston can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through today.  See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions
of the Azores through Saturday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL:  Gaston is expected to produced total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across
the western and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
115049_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-23 21:45 | 显示全部楼层
SSD 12Z分析降至T2.5/3.0
TXNT24 KNES 231153
TCSNTL
A.  08L (GASTON)
B.  23/1130Z
C.  40.2N
D.  29.4W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T2.5/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...CENTER IS BELIEVED TO BE LESS THAN 1/2 DEGREE SOUTH OF THE
EDGE OF CONVECTION RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET
IS 2.0. PT IS 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
CENTER LOCATION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    23/0910Z 40.4N 29.6W SSMIS
...TURK
20220923.113020.AL082022.abi.goes-16.Visible.50kts.92p3.1p0.jpg
20220923.113020.AL082022.abi.goes-16.IR-BD.50kts.92p3.1p0.jpg
20220923.090800.AL082022.ssmis.F17.89pct.50kts.33p9.1p0.jpg
20220923.090800.AL082022.ssmis.F17.color89.50kts.98p5.1p0.jpg
20220923.090800.AL082022.ssmis.F17.color37.50kts.99p4.1p0.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-24 00:18 | 显示全部楼层
936
WTNT43 KNHC 231457
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

Gaston is improving in satellite presentation this morning.
Convection is re-forming and wrapping around the northern and
western sides of the circulation.  A recent scatterometer pass
showed that Gaston was slightly stronger than the previous advisory
and the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt.  The
tropical-storm-force wind field was also expanded, especially in the
northwestern quadrant based on these data.

The cyclone has managed to retain its tropical characteristics for
now.  Global model guidance suggests moderate to strong vertical
wind shear should gradually strip away convection from the core over
the next day or so.  In spite of the relatively hostile conditions,
Gaston has managed to maintain its strength, therefore only gradual
weakening is forecast until the storm merges with a shortwave trough
in about 36 hours and becomes a post-tropical cyclone.  The official
intensity forecast has been shifted slightly higher than the
previous advisory due to the initial intensity and is slightly
stronger than the consensus model aids.

The storm is moving east-southeastward at an estimated 120/6 kt.  A
sharp turn to the south is expected shortly while Gaston traverses
the periphery of a mid-level ridge building to the north.  
Afterward, the cyclone should generally move toward the
west-southwest and west, completing an anticyclone turn, through the
end of the period.  The NHC forecast has been nudged slightly
northward once again from the previous forecast and lies between the
HCCA and TVCN multi-model consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
western Azores, and are spreading to the central Azores.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores today through Saturday.  This rainfall may
result in landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 40.2N  29.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  24/0000Z 39.4N  29.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  24/1200Z 38.7N  30.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  25/0000Z 38.7N  32.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  25/1200Z 38.9N  34.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H  26/0000Z 39.0N  36.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  26/1200Z 39.0N  38.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H  27/1200Z 38.9N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  28/1200Z 37.7N  46.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Bucci
150020_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al082022.20220923161414.gif
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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超强台风

积分
12113
发表于 2022-9-24 04:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-24 06:00 编辑

WTNT43 KNHC 232042
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 23 2022

Convection has been sputtering in recent hours in the core of
Gaston.  It appears the effects of strong vertical wind shear, dry
middle-level humidities and cool sea surface temperatures have
weakened the storm.  Satellite Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB suggest the storm is now 45 kt while and earlier scatterometer
pass showed a decent area of 50-55 kt winds.  The initial intensity
has been lowered to 50 kt to represent a blend of these estimates.

Gaston is moving southward at about 8 kt toward the central
Azores.  A building mid-tropospheric ridge to the north is
expected to turn the storm towards the southwest early tomorrow.
The ridge will eventually steer Gaston westward in about a day
or so, and this motion is forecast to continue until the end of the
period.  The official forecast track is very similar to the
previous advisory prediction except being slightly farther east in
the first 12 hours due to the present location and motion.

The tropical nature of Gaston seems to be winding down quickly.
Simulated satellite imagery from global models suggests the storm
will become fully post-tropical in about 36 hours.  Statistical
model guidance insists that, despite strong to moderate vertical
wind shear and dry air, Gaston should only gradually weaken.  The
NHC intensity forecast reflects this and is close the multi-model
consensus guidance and slightly lower than the previous forecast.
However, it is entirely possible Gaston could weaken more rapidly
than expected.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
western and central Azores.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores Friday into Saturday.  This rainfall may
result in landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 39.6N  28.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  24/0600Z 38.8N  29.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  24/1800Z 38.5N  30.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  25/0600Z 38.7N  33.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  25/1800Z 38.9N  35.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H  26/0600Z 38.9N  37.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  26/1800Z 38.9N  39.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H  27/1800Z 38.5N  43.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

204809_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

al082022.20220923214236.gif
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超强台风

积分
12113
发表于 2022-9-24 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-24 12:00 编辑

000
WTNT43 KNHC 240236
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

Gaston continues to decline. Its associated deep convection has been
stripped away by strong northwesterly vertical wind shear, and the
cyclone now consists of a swirl of mainly low-level clouds with
embedded squalls. The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt
based on the latest Dvorak CI value from TAFB.

The storm has made its anticipated turn to the southwest and is now
moving at 220/7 kt. A building ridge to the north of Gaston should
turn the cyclone westward later today, and this motion is expected
to continue until the system dissipates late in the forecast
period. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the
previous one. On this track, Gaston will move near or over the
central and western Azores today.

Dry air, relatively cool SSTs of 24-25 degrees C, and persistent
strong vertical wind shear should cause Gaston to struggle to
maintain persistent organized deep convection. Therefore, further
weakening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to become
post-tropical by tonight, if not sooner. The latest NHC intensity
forecast was lowered slightly from the previous one and is close to
the various multi-model consensus intensities.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
western and central Azores today.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and
central Azores today. This rainfall may result in landslides and
areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 38.9N  29.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  24/1200Z 38.4N  30.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  25/0000Z 38.5N  32.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H  25/1200Z 38.7N  35.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  26/0000Z 38.7N  36.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H  26/1200Z 38.6N  38.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  27/0000Z 38.3N  40.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  28/0000Z 37.4N  44.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

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al082022.20220924025836.gif
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积分

超强台风

Super Typhoon

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14701
发表于 2022-9-24 10:48 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2022-9-23 18:50 编辑

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报:吕心艳  签发:吕心艳  2022 年 09 月 24 日 10 时
北大西洋热带风暴“赫尔米内”生成

时       间:24日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“赫尔米内”,HERMINE

中心位置:北纬18.9度、西经20.7度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:1002百帕

参考位置:佛得角博阿维斯塔岛北偏东方向约380公里的洋面上

变化过程:“赫尔米内”生成并加强到8级

预报结论:“赫尔米内”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度变化不大。


图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月24日08时00分)

“菲奥娜”向偏北方向移动

时       间:24日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“菲奥娜”,FIONA

中心位置:北纬42.3度、西经60.7度

强度等级:三级飓风

最大风力:17级(57米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级)

中心气压:935百帕

参考位置:百慕大群岛北偏东方向约1170公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“菲奥娜”强度维持不变

预报结论:“菲奥娜”将以每小时35-40公里的速度向偏北方向快速移动,强度逐渐减弱。


图2 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月24日08时00分)

“加斯顿”向偏西方向移动

时       间:24日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“加斯顿”,GASTON

中心位置:北纬39.1度、西经29.1度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级)

中心气压:999百帕

参考位置:亚速尔群岛东北方向约150公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“加斯顿”强度维持不变

预报结论:“加斯顿”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向偏西方向移动,强度缓慢减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220924100002400_XML_3.jpg
图3 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月24日08时00分)


“牛顿”向西偏北方向移动

时       间:24日08时(北京时)

海       域:东北太平洋

命       名:“牛顿”,NEWTON

中心位置:北纬18.5度、西经111.5度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:1003百帕

参考位置:墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣玛格丽塔岛偏南方向约650公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“牛顿”由10级减弱到8级

预报结论:“牛顿”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度变化不大。


图4 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月24日08时00分)
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发表于 2022-9-24 16:26 | 显示全部楼层
910
WTNT33 KNHC 240552
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
600 AM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM GMT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.7N 29.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM GMT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 29.7 West.  Gaston is
moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn to
the west is anticipated later today.  On the forecast track, the
center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the Azores
through this morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is expected over the next few
days, and Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the
western and central Azores through today.  See products issued by
the meteorological service in the Azores for more information.

SURF:  Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores through today.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL:  Gaston is expected to produced total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts across
the western and central Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
055414_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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12113
发表于 2022-9-24 16:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-24 18:00 编辑

068
WTNT43 KNHC 240844
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
900 AM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022

Since yesterday, Gaston has been transitioning to an asymmetric
warm core post-tropical cyclone.  A Friday morning 1227Z METOP-C
scatterometer data confirmed that the transition had begun by
depicting growing asymmetry in the wind field with a hundred-mile
increase in gale-force winds in the northwest quadrant.  Subsequent
surface winds less than 60 miles from the center were 20 kt or
less, all characteristics of a post-tropical/extratropical cyclone
wind profile.  The initial intensity is set at a generous 45 kt and
is above the various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates.

As a result of increasing deep-layer shear and decreasing sea
surface temperature beneath the cyclone, Gaston's organized deep
convection has diminished considerably.  Only a few convective
fragments remain well displaced to the southeast of the surface
center.  Accordingly, further weakening is expected, and Gaston
should complete its post-tropical transition later today.  A couple
of the global models, however, indicate a mid-latitude shortwave
trough/baroclinic zone interacting with post-tropical Gaston early
Sunday morning, which could create a flare-up of deep convection,
but this should be a short-lived event.

Gaston's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or
250/8 kt.  Building high pressure over the northeast Atlantic
should continue to steer the post-tropical cyclone westward through
Monday morning, and west-southwestward until dissipation occurs
toward the end of the week.  The official track forecast is a
little faster than the previous advisory and is nudged to the
south beyond 48 hours to agree more with the NOAA HFIP HCCA model.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions over the western and central Azores
today should diminish this evening as Gaston moves away from the
islands.

2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores through Saturday.  This rainfall may result in
landslides and areas of flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 38.6N  30.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  24/1800Z 38.3N  31.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H  25/0600Z 38.7N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H  25/1800Z 38.7N  36.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  26/0600Z 38.1N  38.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H  26/1800Z 37.4N  39.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  27/0600Z 36.6N  41.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  28/0600Z 33.9N  47.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

085400_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

al082022.20220924090257.gif
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