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[2022] 亚速尔群岛以西热带风暴“加斯顿”(08L.Gaston) - 东行影响亚速尔群岛

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发表于 2022-9-21 11:18 | 显示全部楼层
SSD 00Z打破德法限制,分析T3.0
TXNT24 KNES 202352
TCSNTL
A.  08L (NONAME)
B.  20/2330Z
C.  35.5N
D.  44.1W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T3.0/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .7 ON A LOG10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF
3.0. 6-HOUR AVERAGE DT IS 3.25. WHICH DOES JUSTIFY BREAKING CONSTRAINTS
AT THIS TIME. THE FT IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KIM
20220920.233020.AL082022.abi.goes-16.Infrared-Gray.35kts.100p0.1p0.jpg
20220920.233020.AL082022.abi.goes-16.IR-BD.35kts.100p0.1p0.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-21 11:34 | 显示全部楼层
今早微波扫描显示已有底层风眼

20220920.2115.f17.91pct91h91v.08L.EIGHT.35kts.1009mb.34.1N.44.8W.090pc.jpg
20220920.2115.f17.37pct37h37v.08L.EIGHT.35kts.1009mb.34.1N.44.8W.090pc.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-21 12:21 | 显示全部楼层
503
WTNT43 KNHC 210257
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 21 2022

The satellite presentation of Gaston has improved slightly since
the previous advisory, with deep convection persisting over the
low-level circulation center. The latest current intensity
estimates reflect what has been seen in the satellite imagery, with
TAFB and SAB coming in at 45 knots, while the ADT and AiDT values
from UW-CIMSS showing 35 knots and 46 knots respectively. Based on
a blend of these data along with the improved satellite appearance,
the initial intensity has been raised to 45 knots.

Gaston continues on a path toward the north-northeast,
with the initial motion estimated to be 020/16 kt.  A turn to
northeast is expected today, followed by a turn to the east by
Thursday as the tropical storm moves along the the northern
periphery of a subtropical ridge. By late this week, Gaston is
expected to stall to the west of the Azores in weak steering
currents as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of cyclone. A turn
to the northwest or north is expected over the weekend as Gaston
moves in the steering flow between Hurricane Fiona to the west and
the building mid-level ridge to the east. The latest NHC track
forecast has changed little and lies very close to the previous
advisory track, and closely follows the consensus track guidance.

The period for additional intensification is quickly closing, as
Gaston is moving over the 26C isotherm, and will move over
progressively cooler water through the remainder of the forecast
period. Additionally, the impact of the vertical wind shear will
increase in a couple days as the tropical cyclone stalls out while
westerly shear holds in the 25 to 30 knot range. As a result, the
intensity forecast calls for slight strengthening today, followed by
little change in strength for another day or so after that. The
combination of cool SSTs, dry mid-level air, and increasing vertical
wind shear should then lead to slow weakening through the remainder
of the week. The latest NHC was adjusted upward through the first 24
hours to account for the strengthening which has already occurred,
with only minor adjustments made through the remainder of the
forecast period, closely following the consensus intensity aids.  

Interests in the Azores should continue to monitor the forecast for
Gaston.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 36.2N  43.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  21/1200Z 37.8N  41.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  22/0000Z 39.3N  39.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  22/1200Z 40.2N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  23/0000Z 40.4N  32.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  23/1200Z 40.4N  31.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  24/0000Z 40.4N  31.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  25/0000Z 41.5N  33.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  26/0000Z 43.5N  35.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Jelsema
025537_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al082022.20220921033723.gif
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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Super Typhoon

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14701
发表于 2022-9-21 12:35 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报:柳龙生  签发:张 玲  2022 年 09 月 21 日 10 时
“马德琳”减弱为热带低压

时       间:21日08时(北京时)

海       域:东北太平洋

命       名:“马德琳”,MADELINE

中心位置:北纬21.4度、西经112.7度

强度等级:热带低压

最大风力:7级(15米/秒,相当于我国的热带低压)

中心气压:1004百帕

参考位置:墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西偏南方向约325公里的洋面上

变化过程:“马德琳”由9级减弱到7级

预报结论:“马德琳”已经减弱为热带低压并且强度还将进一步减弱。

(这是关于“马德琳”的最后一期监测公报)


图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月21日08时00分)

“菲奥娜”向北偏西方向移动

时       间:21日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“菲奥娜”,FIONA

中心位置:北纬22.9度、西经71.7度

强度等级:三级飓风

最大风力:17级(57米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级)

中心气压:951百帕

参考位置:美国佛罗里达州迈阿密东偏南方向约920公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“菲奥娜”由14级加强到17级

预报结论:“菲奥娜”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度逐渐增强。


图2 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月21日08时00分)

北大西洋热带风暴“加斯顿”生成

时       间:21日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“加斯顿”,GASTON

中心位置:北纬35.6度、西经44.1度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:1009百帕

参考位置:亚速尔群岛偏西方向约1280公里的洋面上

变化过程:“加斯顿”生成并加强到8级

预报结论:“加斯顿”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向北偏东方向移动,强度逐渐增强。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220921100002400_XML_3.jpg
图3 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月21日08时00分)
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发表于 2022-9-21 15:24 | 显示全部楼层
SSD 06Z分析维持T3.0
TXNT24 KNES 210555
TCSNTL
A.  08L (GASTON)
B.  21/0530Z
C.  36.8N
D.  43.4W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T3.0/3.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI
H.  REMARKS...7/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS
2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    21/0407Z 36.5N 43.8W GMI
...CLARK
20220921.053020.AL082022.abi.goes-16.Infrared-Gray.45kts.100p0.1p0.jpg
20220921.053020.AL082022.abi.goes-16.IR-BD.45kts.100p0.1p0.jpg
20220921.0407.gpm.89pct89h89v.08L.GASTON.45kts.1004mb.35.6N.44.1W.060pc.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-21 19:58 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTNT43 KNHC 210856
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
900 AM GMT Wed Sep 21 2022

Gaston has continued to improve on satellite imagery overnight.
Curved bands can be seen rotating fully around the southwestern
side
of the tropical cyclone with a warm spot occasionally apparent near
where the center is. I was somewhat skeptical that this structure
was indicative of a formative inner core, but a helpful GMI
microwave pass at 0407 UTC revealed this was no illusion, with a
nearly closed ring of convection on both 89 and 37 GHz channels.
Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB were T3.0/45-kt and
TAFB T3.5/55-kt. Given the improvement in structure tonight, the
winds have been increased to 55-kt this advisory.

Gaston continues to move to the north-northeast at 025/16 kt. A
turn
north northeastward is expected later today followed by a more
eastward motion by Thursday. By the latter part of this week,
Gaston
is forecast to come to near screeching halt to the west of the
Azores in weak steering currents as a mid-level ridge builds
northward, related to Fiona's downstream diabatic induced ridging.
A
turn to the northwest or north is expected over the weekend as
Gaston moves in the steering flow between Hurricane Fiona to the
west and the building mid-level ridge to the east. The latest NHC
track forecast has changed little and lies very close to the
previous advisory track.

Based on the current structure, Gaston might be able to intensify a
bit more today. However as Gaston slows down the westerly
upper-level flow the storm is embedded will likely cause the
structure to deteriorate, with both the GFS and ECMWF simulated
satellite imagery suggesting the convection could de-couple from
the storm in about 48-60 hours. Thus, the latest forecast shows
weakening during this time period, and Gaston could become a
post-tropical extratropical cyclone as soon as 72 hours. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is a bit higher, owing to the initial
intensity, but remains fairly close to the previous forecast after
60 hours.

Interests in the Azores should continue to monitor the forecast for
Gaston.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 37.5N  42.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  21/1800Z 38.8N  40.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  22/0600Z 40.1N  37.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  22/1800Z 40.8N  34.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  23/0600Z 40.9N  32.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  23/1800Z 40.8N  31.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  24/0600Z 41.3N  31.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  25/0600Z 42.6N  33.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  26/0600Z 44.3N  35.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin
101145_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al082022.20220921112132.gif
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-21 21:07 | 显示全部楼层
SSD 12Z分析升至T3.5
TXNT24 KNES 211159
TCSNTL
A.  08L (GASTON)
B.  21/1130Z
C.  37.8N
D.  44.4W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T3.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...8/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 2.5 BASED
ON THE PAST 24 HOUR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND. THE PT IS 3.0. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...BROWN
20220921.113020.AL082022.abi.goes-16.Visible.55kts.100p0.1p0.jpg
20220921.113020.AL082022.abi.goes-16.IR-BD.55kts.100p0.1p0.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-22 10:18 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTNT43 KNHC 212031
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 21 2022

There has been little change associated with Gaston during the past
several hours.  The system continues to produce an area of deep
convection near the center and exhibits well-defined outflow over
the western semicircle.  However, drier air is entraining into
the eastern portion of the circulation.  The Dvorak CI-numbers from
TAFB and SAB continue to support an initial intensity of 55 kt.

Gaston continues to track northeastward over the north-central
Atlantic, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 045/12 kt.
Although there is no significant change to the forecast reasoning,
there is a considerable amount of model spread in the details of the
future steering pattern.  An amplifying ridge associated with Fiona
is expected to trap Gaston's circulation late this week and this
weekend.  This could result in a clockwise loop and an eventual
turn westward.  The new NHC track forecast is a little to the south
and faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest
consensus models.

It appears that the opportunity for strengthening has ended.  A slow
weakening trend should begin in the next day or so when Gaston moves
over cooler waters and into a region of drier air and slightly
stronger westerly vertical wind shear.  An approaching mid-level
trough should aid in the system's transition to an extratropical
cyclone in a couple of days or so.  The NHC intensity forecast
remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Interests in the Azores should continue to monitor the forecast for
Gaston.  For additional information, see warnings and products
issued by the meteorological service in the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 39.0N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  22/0600Z 40.0N  37.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  22/1800Z 40.8N  33.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  23/0600Z 40.9N  31.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  23/1800Z 40.4N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  24/0600Z 39.8N  30.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  24/1800Z 39.6N  31.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  25/1800Z 40.3N  34.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  26/1800Z 41.0N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Wegman/Carbin
203533_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al082022.20220921212038.gif
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-22 10:21 | 显示全部楼层
红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2022-9-22 10:18
000
WTNT43 KNHC 212031
TCDAT3

正面影响亚速尔群岛的节奏
最新台风动向欢迎加入{气象乐园}群55541191
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24

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积分

超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
14701
发表于 2022-9-22 10:35 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报:王慧  签发:张 玲  2022 年 09 月 22 日 10 时
“加斯顿”向东偏北方向移动

时       间:22日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“加斯顿”,GASTON

中心位置:北纬39.3度、西经38.8度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级)

中心气压:1000百帕

参考位置:亚速尔群岛偏西方向约780公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“加斯顿”强度变化不大

预报结论:“加斯顿”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向东偏北方向移动,强度变化不大。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220922100002400_XML_1.jpg
图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月22日08时40分)


“菲奥娜”向北偏东方向移动

时       间:22日08时(北京时)

海       域:北大西洋

命       名:“菲奥娜”,FIONA

中心位置:北纬26.0度、西经71.4度

强度等级:四级飓风

最大风力:17级(59米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级)

中心气压:937百帕

参考位置:百慕大群岛西南方向约950公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“菲奥娜”强度维持17级

预报结论:“菲奥娜”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向北偏东方向移动,强度将有所加强。


图2 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年09月22日08时01分)
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