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[2022] 亚速尔群岛以西热带风暴“加斯顿”(08L.Gaston) - 东行影响亚速尔群岛

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发表于 2022-9-19 13:33 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2022-9-23 18:15 编辑

97L INVEST 220919 0000 27.8N 46.0W ATL 25 1015

20220919.0500.goes-16.ir.97L.INVEST.25kts.1015mb.27.8N.46W.100pc.jpg
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Satellite wind data from earlier tonight indicated an area of low
pressure has formed over the central subtropical Atlantic, and it is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. There is a short
window for this system to develop further over the next day or two
before environmental conditions become less favorable later this
week. The system should move generally northward or northeastward
while remaining over the open central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
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发表于 2022-9-19 20:30 | 显示全部楼层
数值预报逐渐北上转向,没有明显发展,NHC维持20%/20%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located inland over southeastern Dominican Republic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central subtropical
Atlantic are associated with a poorly defined area of low pressure.
Some slow development is possible during the next couple of days
before environmental conditions become less conducive later this
week.  The system should generally move northward or northeastward
while remaining over the open central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Roberts
two_atl_2d0.png
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d1.png
natl.png
AL97_2022091900_GEFS_0-120h_large.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-20 08:28 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/40%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located just north of the northern coast of the Dominican
Republic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased slightly this evening
in association with an area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic.  Some slow development is possible during the
next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form during
that time before environmental conditions become less conducive
later this week.  The system should generally move northward or
northeastward while remaining over the open waters of central
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while the system approaches the
Windward Islands toward the end of the week and moves over the
eastern Caribbean sea over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Jelsema
two_atl_2d0.png
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d1.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-20 16:12 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:60%/60%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located just southeast of the Turks and Caicos islands.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in
association with an area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become less conducive later this week.  The system should generally
move northward or northeastward while remaining over the open waters
of central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Gradual development of this system is forecast
during the next several days as the system approaches the Windward
Islands, and a tropical depression could form toward the latter
part of this week or weekend as the system moves into the eastern
and central Caribbean sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin
two_atl_2d0.png
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d1.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-20 20:05 | 显示全部楼层

FWC-N:TCFA

WTNT21 KNGU 200900
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31.3N 46.0W TO 34.6N 46.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 13 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 200900Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 46.0W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
AZORES ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE MONDAY. THE SYSTEM PRODUCES
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30KTS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCTIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
ADVISORY,UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 210900Z.//
al972022.20220920095729.gif
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-9-20 20:32 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:80%/80%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located near the Turks and Caicos islands.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with an area of low pressure located over
the central subtropical Atlantic, about 950 miles west-southwest of
the westernmost Azores.   Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next day or so before upper-level winds
become less conducive later this week.  The system should move
generally northward or northeastward while remaining over the open
waters of central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms while moving westward at 15-20 mph.  Gradual
development of this system is forecast during the next several days
as the system approaches the Windward Islands, and a tropical
depression could form by the latter part of this week as the system
moves into the eastern and central Caribbean sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Bucci
two_atl_2d0.png
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d1.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-20 22:12 | 显示全部楼层
Special Message from NHC        Issued 20 Sep 2022 14:07 UTC   

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Eight, located over the north-central Atlantic Ocean, at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).
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发表于 2022-9-20 22:13 | 显示全部楼层
NHC发出Special Message升格08L

NHC.PNG
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-20 22:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-9-21 06:08 编辑

WTNT43 KNHC 201434
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 20 2022

Geostationary and microwave satellite data indicate that the system
that NHC has been monitoring over the central Atlantic has developed
a well-defined center and organized deep convection, and now meets
the definition of a tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity is
estimated to be 30 kt based on a partial ASCAT pass that showed peak
winds in the 25-30 kt range.  The low-level center is estimated to
be on the southern side of the main area of deep convection.

The depression is currently moving northward at 9 kt on the western
side of a subtropical ridge.  A faster motion to the northeast is
expected on Wednesday when the system reaches the northwestern
periphery of the ridge, followed by a turn to the east.  By the end
of the week, however, the depression is expected to stall in weak
steering currents as high pressure builds near and to the north of
the cyclone.  Over the weekend, the depression is expected to turn
northwestward and increase its forward speed as Fiona tracks well to
the west of this system.  The models are in fair agreement, but
there is some cross-track spread by the end of the period with the
GFS showing the fastest solution and ECMWF the slowest.  The NHC
track forecast lies close to the various consensus models.

The depression is currently over relatively warm water, in a region
of upper-level diffluence within a somewhat favorable moist
environment. These factors should allow the system to strengthen
slowly during the next couple of days.  However, after that time,
much cooler SSTs, drier air, and an increase in westerly shear
should end the strengthening trend.  The system is expected to
become extratropical over the weekend when it moves over SSTs just
above 20C.  The NHC intensity forecast lies a little lower than
HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

Interests in the Azores should monitor forecasts of the depression.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 32.8N  45.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  21/0000Z 34.6N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  21/1200Z 36.7N  43.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  22/0000Z 38.2N  40.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  22/1200Z 39.2N  37.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  23/0000Z 39.7N  35.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  23/1200Z 39.8N  33.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  24/1200Z 40.1N  33.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 42.4N  36.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Pereira/Montgomery

144012_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al082022.20220920163224.gif
20220920.1240.mtb.ASCAT.wind.97L.INVEST.30kts-1013mb.322N.461W.25km.noqc.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-21 06:12 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTNT43 KNHC 202040
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 20 2022

Satellite images indicate that deep convection is persisting near
and to the north of the center of the cyclone during the past
several hours. Drifting buoy 44857 recently reported a minimum
pressure of 1009 mb near the center of the low, which is a 8 mb
decrease from earlier today. An ASCAT-C pass from several hours ago
showed maximum winds of about 35 kt in the northeast and northwest
quadrants.  Based on that data, the initial intensity is increased
to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Gaston.

Gaston has turned north-northeastward and is moving a little faster
than before.  The initial motion estimate is 020/15 kt.  A turn to
the east is expected in a couple of days when the tropical storm
moves along the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge.  By the
end of the week, however, Gaston is expected to stall to the west of
the Azores in weak steering currents as high pressure builds near
and to the north of the cyclone.  After that time, a turn to the
northwest or north is expected as Gaston moves in the flow between
Hurricane Fiona and the ridge.  The models have trended a little
faster this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.

Gaston is currently moving over relatively warm water, in a region
of upper-level diffluence within a somewhat favorable moist
environment. These factors should allow the system to strengthen
slowly during the next day or two.  However, after that time,
much cooler SSTs, drier air, and an increase in westerly shear
should end the strengthening trend.  The system is expected to
become extratropical on Saturday when it moves over SSTs just
above 20C and merges with a mid- to upper-level trough.  The NHC
intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one and near
the middle of the guidance envelope.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the forecast for Gaston.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 34.7N  44.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  21/0600Z 36.5N  43.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  21/1800Z 38.3N  40.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  22/0600Z 39.4N  38.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  22/1800Z 40.1N  35.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  23/0600Z 40.3N  33.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  23/1800Z 40.4N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  24/1800Z 41.0N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  25/1800Z 44.0N  35.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kebede

204157_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al082022.20220920211944.gif
20222631800_GOES16-ABI-FL-01-AL082022-1000x1000.jpg
20220920.1332.mtc.ASCAT.wind.08L.EIGHT.30kts-1013mb.322N.460W.25km.noqc.jpg
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