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[2022] 百慕大西南四级飓风“菲欧娜”(07L.Fiona) - 加拿大史上最强登陆气旋 - NHC:115KT

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超强台风

积分
10396
发表于 2022-9-13 20:46 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2022-9-24 22:30 编辑

AL, 96, 2022091312,   , BEST,   0, 148N,  443W,  15, 1011, DB,

20220913.1240.goes-16.vis.2km.96L.INVEST.15kts.1011mb.14.8N.44.3W.pc.jpg
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Conventional and Low-earth orbit satellite data indicate that
showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward
Islands have increased and become better organized since yesterday
afternoon.  Further development of this system is possible and a
tropical depression could form over the next several days while it
generally moves westward to west-northwestward over the central
tropical Atlantic and approaches the Leeward Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
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32

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6846

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强台风

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6846
发表于 2022-9-13 21:19 | 显示全部楼层
natl-1663075099075.png

EC集系支持高强度,擦过美国东岸。
一路伴盈,形盈不离,如盈随形,盈随心动img]https://bbs.typhoon.org.cn/static/image/smiley/default/cry.gif[/img]
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热带扰动-TCFA

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82
发表于 2022-9-13 22:10 | 显示全部楼层
预报
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2744D140-7665-485F-A5BC-1E9B134A61B2.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

@xiaoqianWX 我超菜的

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2022-9-13 22:48 | 显示全部楼层

EPS那边支持多不少,不过就北大之前几波特大调没来说现在看实在是太早了,再等个两三天看看有没有起色
natl (1).png
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超强台风

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10396
 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-14 04:30 | 显示全部楼层

NHC: 30%/40%

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have changed little in
organization since this morning.  Although environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive, some gradual development of this
system is possible over the next few days.  A tropical depression
could form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the Leeward Islands on
Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

two_atl_2d1.png

two_atl_5d1.png

natl.png
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超强台风

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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-14 07:40 | 显示全部楼层

NHC: 30%/40%

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-14 07:45 编辑

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have changed little in
organization today.  Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive, some gradual development of this system is
possible over the next few days.  A tropical depression could form
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the
tropical Atlantic and approaches the Leeward Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

two_atl_2d1.png

two_atl_5d1.png

natl.png
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超强台风

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10396
 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-14 13:20 | 显示全部楼层

NHC: 40%/50%

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little during the past
several hours in association with a tropical wave located a little
less than 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some
additional development of this system is possible and a tropical
depression could form during the next couple of days.  This system
is expected to moves westward to west-northwestward over the
tropical Atlantic and it is expected to be near the Leeward Islands
on Friday. Interests in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

two_atl_2d1.png

two_atl_5d1.png

natl.png
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积分

超强台风

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 楼主| 发表于 2022-9-14 19:43 | 显示全部楼层

NHC: 70%/70%

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-9-14 19:50 编辑

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad and elongated
area of low pressure located about 800 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles have persisted overnight and are showing signs of
organization.  Although upper-level winds are not particularly
conducive for additional development, only a slight increase in
organization would result in the formation of a tropical
depression. The system is forecast to move generally westward
over the tropical Atlantic during the next day or so, and move
near or over portions of the Leeward Islands Friday and Friday
night.  Regardless of development, the system is likely to bring
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward
Islands Friday through Saturday. Interests in the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

two_atl_2d1.png

two_atl_5d1.png

natl.png
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超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
12230
发表于 2022-9-14 23:00 | 显示全部楼层
Special Message from NHC        Issued 14 Sep 2022 14:42 UTC   
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Seven, located about 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands, at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).
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Super Typhoon

积分
12230
发表于 2022-9-14 23:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2022-9-14 08:25 编辑

826
WTNT42 KNHC 141500
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

Visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated
with the area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic has become
better defined.  The associated convection has persisted overnight
and this morning, and although it is confined to the eastern
portion of the circulation it has enough organization to classify
the system as a tropical depression.  The initial intensity is set
at 30 kt, which is a little above the latest TAFB Dvorak
classification of T1.5, but in line with overnight scatterometer
data.

Moderate westerly shear and a dry mid-level atmosphere are expected
to prevent significant intensification, but some modest
strengthening is possible over the next day or two, and the NHC
forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm tonight
or Thursday. After the system moves into the eastern Caribbean, the
westerly shear is forecast to increase somewhat and the global
models suggest that the system could struggle to maintain its
closed circulation after that time.  The NHC intensity forecast is
a little above the IVCN intensity forecast, and maintains the
system as a tropical cyclone through the forecast period.  Weakening
is indicated by day 5 when the system is forecast to interact with
Hispaniola.

The depression is moving westward or 280/12 kt.  The cyclone is
forecast to move slightly north of due westward along the south
side of a low to mid-level ridge that is anchored over the central
and western Atlantic.  Although the track guidance is tightly
clustered, there are some differences in forward speed with the
ECMWF much faster than the GFS.  The NHC forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope and is near the TVCA and GFEX
consensus aids to account for the differences in the forward speed.

Key Messages:

1.  The system is expected to move through the Leeward Islands on
Friday or Friday night, bringing heavy rainfall and possible wind
impacts. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of the depression as tropical storm watches could be
required for some islands later today.

2.  The system could move near or over portions of the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola this weekend and early next
week, potentially bringing heavy rainfall and some wind impacts to
these areas, and interests there should monitor the progress of the
depression.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 16.6N  49.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  15/0000Z 16.7N  51.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  15/1200Z 16.8N  53.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  16/0000Z 16.9N  56.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  16/1200Z 17.0N  59.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
60H  17/0000Z 17.1N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  17/1200Z 17.4N  64.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  18/1200Z 18.0N  68.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 19.1N  71.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

150210_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al072022.gif
20220914.1308.mtb.ASCAT.wind.96L.INVEST.30kts-1009mb.164N.491W.25km.noqc.jpg
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