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[2022] 墨西哥西南一级飓风“霍华德”(09E.Howard) - 柳暗花明,终成飓风 - NHC:75KT

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发表于 2022-8-10 08:06 | 显示全部楼层

SSD 00Z分析维持T3.5

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-10 08:10 编辑
TXPZ21 KNES 100005
TCSENP

A.  09E (HOWARD)

B.  09/2330Z

C.  23.0N

D.  117.9W

E.  THREE/GOES-E

F.  T3.5/4.5

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...A LLCC EMBEDDED IN DG YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. THE MET AND PT
ARE 3.5 BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...COVERDALE
09E_BAND01_202208092330.png 09E_BD_202208092330.png
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发表于 2022-8-10 10:34 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-10 14:30 编辑

830
WTPZ44 KNHC 100234
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Howard continues to weaken as it moves over cool 25 degree C waters.
Satellite images indicate that most of the deep convection is
confined to the north of the center with thunderstorm activity
dissipating on the south side due to dry air that is entraining into
that portion of the circulation.  The initial intensity is nudged
downward to 60 kt, making Howard a tropical storm again, based on a
blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates.

Steady weakening is forecast to continue as Howard tracks over
progressively cooler water and into a very dry environment. These
factors should cause the storm to degenerate to a post-tropical
cyclone in about 36 hours and dissipate in a few days. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and near
the IVCN and HCCA models.

Howard continues to move to the northwest at 9 kt. A gradual turn to
the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday followed by a turn to
the west on Thursday as the system weakens and becomes increasingly
steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to
the north of the previous one, due to the more northward initial
position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 23.1N 118.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  10/1200Z 23.6N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  11/0000Z 24.2N 121.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  11/1200Z 24.7N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  12/0000Z 24.9N 124.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  12/1200Z 24.9N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
023507_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep0922.gif 09E_100000sair.jpg
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发表于 2022-8-10 10:39 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-10 10:40 编辑

全球热带气旋监测公报

预报:渠鸿宇  签发:董林  2022 年 08 月 10 日 10 时


“霍华德”向西偏北方向移动

时       间:10日08时(北京时)

海       域:东北太平洋

命       名:“霍华德”,HOWARD

中心位置:北纬22.9度、西经118.0度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:11级(30米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级)

中心气压:992百帕

参考位置:位于距离美国加利福尼亚州圣迭戈偏南方向约1090公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“霍华德”由12级减弱到11级

预报结论:“霍华德”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度有所减弱。


SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220810100002400_XML_1.jpg


图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年08月10日08时00分)


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发表于 2022-8-10 12:23 | 显示全部楼层
逐渐凋零于干空气和冷水之中,东太TC的常见死法
2022ep09_ohcnfcst_202208091200.jpg 2022ep09_16kmgwvp_202208100010.jpg
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发表于 2022-8-10 14:01 | 显示全部楼层

SSD 06Z分析升至T4.5

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-10 14:05 编辑
TXPZ21 KNES 100558
TCSENP

A.  09E (HOWARD)

B.  10/0530Z

C.  23.4N

D.  118.6W

E.  ONE/GOES-E

F.  T4.5/4.5

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...PINHOLE OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG AND EMBEDDED WITHIN MG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.5 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENTS MADE. MET AND PT AGREE. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KIM
09E_BAND13_202208100530.png 09E_BD_202208100530.png
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发表于 2022-8-10 15:35 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报

预报:渠鸿宇  签发:董林  2022 年 08 月 10 日 18 时


“霍华德”向西偏北方向移动

时       间:10日14时(北京时)

海       域:东北太平洋

命       名:“霍华德”,HOWARD

中心位置:北纬23.3度、西经118.8度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级)

中心气压:994百帕

参考位置:位于距离美国加利福尼亚州圣迭戈偏南方向约1050公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“霍华德”由12级减弱到10级

预报结论:“霍华德”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。


SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220810180002400_XML_1.jpg


图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年08月10日14时00分)


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发表于 2022-8-10 16:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-10 17:35 编辑

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 100845
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Deep convection in the northern semicircle has continued to slowly
decrease in depth and coverage while Howard moves over cooler
waters.  As a result, the objective and subjective satellite
intensity estimates have reduced and the initial intensity estimate
has been lower to 55 kt.  Steady weakening is expected to continue
as the cyclone approaches sea surface temperatures cooler than 24
degrees C and moves into an increasingly dry and stable environment.
These oceanic and atmospheric factors should cause Howard to
degenerate into a remnant low in about a day and a half.  The
official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and now shows
Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt around a
subtropical ridge.  Howard is expected to turn west-northwestward
later today followed by westward on Thursday when the weaker, more
shallow vortex is steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous official prediction and
close to model consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 23.5N 119.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  10/1800Z 23.9N 120.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  11/0600Z 24.4N 122.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H  11/1800Z 24.8N 123.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  12/0600Z 24.9N 125.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  12/1800Z 24.9N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Beven
084542_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep092022.20220810092539.gif 09E_100600sair.jpg
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发表于 2022-8-10 20:21 | 显示全部楼层

SSD 12Z分析降至T3.5

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-10 20:25 编辑
TXPZ21 KNES 101216
TCSENP

A.  09E (HOWARD)

B.  10/1130Z

C.  24.1N

D.  119.5W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T3.5/4.5

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...AN LLCC EMBEDDED IN OW RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET
AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
CENTER POSITION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...BROWN
09E_BAND13_202208101130.png 09E_BD_202208101130.png
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发表于 2022-8-11 04:20 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-11 04:45 编辑

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 101441
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Howard's deep convection continues to steadily decrease, both in
terms of extent and magnitude (as indicated by warming cloud top
temperatures). A blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and
the UW-CIMSS SATCON support lowering the analyzed intensity to 50 kt
for this advisory. Continued weakening appears inevitable as Howard
moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
surrounding environment. The ECMWF, GFS and HWRF all indicate that
Howard will lose its remaining deep convection by the end of today,
and this is reflected in the official forecast which shows the
cyclone as post-tropical in 24 h.

Howard has turned west-northwestward, with an initial forward speed
of 9 kt. A gradual westward turn is expected over the next day or
so as the cyclone is increasingly steered by low-level easterly
flow. No changes of note were made to the NHC track forecast, which
remains based on the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 23.7N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  11/0000Z 24.1N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  11/1200Z 24.5N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  12/0000Z 24.8N 124.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  12/1200Z 24.9N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  13/0000Z 24.8N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
144222_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep092022.20220810150728.gif 09E_101200sair.jpg
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发表于 2022-8-11 04:20 | 显示全部楼层

SSD 18Z分析降至T3.0

TXPZ21 KNES 101804
TCSENP

A.  09E (HOWARD)

B.  10/1730Z

C.  23.7N

D.  120.8W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T3.0/4.0

G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H.  REMARKS...A TIGHT CIRCULARLY DEFINED LLCC LOCATED LESS THAN 1.25
DEG FROM THE VERY SMALL COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. THE MET
IS 2.0 DUE TO RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 2.5. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE CONSTRAINTS THAT THE T-NO CANNOT CHANGE BY MORE THAN
1.5 OVER 12 HOURS.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    10/1219Z 23.5N 119.8W SSMIS


...BROWN
20222221730_GOES16-ABI-FL-GEOCOLOR-EP092022-2000x2000.jpg
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