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[2022] 墨西哥西南一级飓风“霍华德”(09E.Howard) - 柳暗花明,终成飓风 - NHC:75KT

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发表于 2022-8-9 10:37 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-9 16:40 编辑

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 090237
TCDEP4

Hurricane Howard Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 08 2022

Howard's structure has evolved over the past several hours.
Although the overall amount of deep convection has decreased,
thunderstorm activity in the eyewall appears better organized and
more symmetric during the past few hours. Water vapor images show a
pronounced dry slot channeling into the system's east side, which is
likely the reason why the rainbands have become less convective.
Despite the structural change, the Dvorak classifications have
remained steady at 4.0/65 kt and 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. Based on that data, the initial intensity is held at
70 kt.

Howard is just about out of time to strengthen any further. The
hurricane is approaching the 26 degree C SST isotherm and dry air is
already entraining into the circulation. These factors should cause
a weakening trend to begin on Tuesday, and Howard will likely become
a remnant low in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is a
little lower than the previous one and near the IVCN and HCCA
consensus models.

Over the past 12 hours, Howard has been moving to the northwest
at 10 kt. A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during
the next couple of days as the system moves on the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over the south-central
and southwestern United States. A turn to the west within the
low-level flow is forecast in a few days when Howard is expected to
be a weak and shallow system. The NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous one and near the model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 21.2N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  09/1200Z 22.0N 116.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  10/0000Z 22.9N 118.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  10/1200Z 23.6N 120.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  11/0000Z 24.2N 121.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  11/1200Z 24.6N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  12/0000Z 24.8N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
023826_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep0922.gif 09E_090000sair.jpg 20222210200_GOES16-ABI-FL-09-EP092022-2000x2000.jpg
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发表于 2022-8-9 11:11 | 显示全部楼层
ygsj24 发表于 2022-8-9 10:37
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 090237
TCDEP4

风场扫描欠佳,但确实是飓风的结构了
最新台风动向欢迎加入{气象乐园}群55541191
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发表于 2022-8-9 12:58 | 显示全部楼层
今早以来的微波扫描均显示明确风眼结构

20220808.2359.f18.91pct91h91v.09E.HOWARD.70kts.987mb.20.9N.114.8W.060pc.jpg
20220809.0045.f16.91pct91h91v.09E.HOWARD.70kts.987mb.20.9N.114.8W.070pc.jpg
20220809.0149.f17.91pct91h91v.09E.HOWARD.70kts.987mb.20.9N.114.8W.095pc.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-8-9 14:16 | 显示全部楼层

SSD 06Z分析降至T4.0

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-9 14:20 编辑
TXPZ21 KNES 090613
TCSENP

A.  09E (HOWARD)

B.  09/0531Z

C.  21.4N

D.  115.6W

E.  ONE/GOES-W

F.  T4.0/4.5

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...LARGE WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG AND EMBEDDED IN OW RESULTS
IN AN E# OF 4.0 WITH NO EADJ FOR A DT OF 4.0. MET=4.0 AND PT=4.5. SYSTEM
PSBLY TAKING ON MORE ANNULAR STRUCTURE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KONON
09E_BAND13_202208090530.png 09E_BD_202208090530.png
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发表于 2022-8-9 16:28 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-9 16:30 编辑

全球热带气旋监测公报

预报:柳龙生  签发:高拴柱  2022 年 08 月 09 日 18 时


“霍华德”向西北方向移动

时       间:9日14时(北京时)

海       域:东北太平洋

命       名:“霍华德”,HOWARD

中心位置:北纬21.4度、西经115.7度

强度等级:一级飓风

最大风力:12级(35米/秒,相当于我国的台风级)

中心气压:987百帕

参考位置:位于距离墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西偏南方向约610公里的洋面上

变化过程:过去24小时,“霍华德”由9级加强到12级

预报结论:“霍华德”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐加强。


SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220809180002400_XML_1.jpg


图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年08月09日14时00分)


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发表于 2022-8-9 16:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-9 17:20 编辑

527
WTPZ44 KNHC 090835
TCDEP4

Hurricane Howard Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Howard has been generally steady state in strength over the past
few hours and the hurricane has likely peaked in intensity.  
Very recently, satellite imagery has shown a few breaks in the
convection in the northern semicircle.  However, a blend of Dvorak
T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, along with objective SATCON
estimates, still support Howard as a 70-kt hurricane.

The cyclone is expected to begin weakening shortly.  Though the
vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low for another day or
so, Howard has moved over waters cooler than 26 degrees C and is
pushing farther into a dry and stable environment.  The official
forecast now predicts the storm to degenerate into a post-tropical
cyclone in a couple of days.

The initial motion estimate is 305/10 kt.  A ridge to the northeast
of the hurricane should continue to steer Howard on a northwestward
trajectory.  As Howard weakens, its motion will likely gain a more
westerly component when the shallower vortex is guided by the
low-level tradewinds.  The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged
from the previous advisory and remains within the tightly-clustered
model guidance, closest to TVCE and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 21.6N 116.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  09/1800Z 22.3N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  10/0600Z 23.2N 119.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  10/1800Z 23.9N 120.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  11/0600Z 24.4N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H  11/1800Z 24.8N 123.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  12/0600Z 25.0N 125.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
083613_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep0922.gif 09E_090600sair.jpg
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发表于 2022-8-9 20:11 | 显示全部楼层

SSD 12Z分析升至T4.5

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-9 20:15 编辑
TXPZ21 KNES 091209
TCSENP

A.  09E (HOWARD)

B.  09/1130Z

C.  21.9N

D.  116.1W

E.  ONE/GOES-W

F.  T4.5/4.5

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2

H.  REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH AN EYE TEMP OF OW, SURROUNDED BY A DG
RING, EMBEDDED IN DG RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.5. THE MET IS 4.5 BASED ON A
24HR DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS 4.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    09/0926Z 21.9N 116.1W AMSR2


...GATLING
09E_BAND13_202208091129.png 09E_BD_202208091129.png 20220809.0926.gw1.89pct89h89v.09E.HOWARD.70kts.987mb.21.4N.115.7W.97pc.jpg
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发表于 2022-8-10 04:20 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-10 04:40 编辑

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 091436
TCDEP4

Hurricane Howard Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Howard has been maintaining a ragged-looking eye on geostationary
imagery, but an AMSR-2 microwave overpass showed a well-defined
ring of convection in the core.  The current intensity is set at 75
kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB. The hurricane continues to exhibit a fairly well-defined
upper-level outflow pattern, indicative of low vertical wind shear.

The system is currently over marginally warm sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) and vertical wind shear is not predicted to
increase much over the next couple of days.  However Howard will be
passing over increasingly cooler ocean waters and into a drier, more
stable air mass.  These conditions should lead to steady weakening,
with the cyclone becoming post-tropical over 22 deg C SSTs in about
48 hours.  The official intensity forecast is very close to the
latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or at about 300/9 kt.
A generally west-northwestward track is likely over the next few
days while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a
mid-level ridge.  A westward turn is expected late in the forecast
period when the the increasingly shallow system becomes steered by
the lower-tropospheric flow.  The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous NHC prediction, and remains close to the
simple and corrected dynamical model consensus solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 22.0N 116.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  10/0000Z 22.8N 118.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  10/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  11/0000Z 24.2N 121.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  11/1200Z 24.6N 123.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H  12/0000Z 24.9N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  12/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
143751_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep092022.20220809160244.gif 09E_091200sair.jpg 20220809.0926.gw1.89hbt.09E.HOWARD.70kts.987mb.21.4N.115.7W.97pc.jpg
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发表于 2022-8-10 04:20 | 显示全部楼层

SSD 18Z分析降至T3.5

TXPZ21 KNES 091756
TCSENP

A.  09E (HOWARD)

B.  09/1730Z

C.  22.5N

D.  117.0W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T3.5/4.5

G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTER EMBEDDED IN OW RESULTING
IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED ON A 24HR WEAKENING TREND. PT IS
ALSO 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT CENTER
LOCATION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    09/1421Z 22.5N 117.0W SSMIS


...GATLING
09E_BAND01_202208091742.png 09E_BD_202208091742.png
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发表于 2022-8-10 04:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-10 05:10 编辑

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 092035
TCDEP4

Hurricane Howard Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Deep convection associated with Howard has decreased in intensity
and become less organized today while the cyclone moves over cooler
waters.  Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have been lowered
from earlier today, and the objective Dvorak intensity estimate
from UW-CIMSS is below hurricane strength.  Based on these values,
the advisory intensity is reduced to 65 kt.

Although the vertical wind shear is not forecast to increase, Howard
will continue to pass over cooler ocean waters during the next
couple of days.  Moreover, model analyses and the presence of a
field of stratocumulus clouds just to the west of the cyclone
indicate that the system should soon be encountering a more stable
air mass.  Therefore, continued steady weakening is forecast, and
the official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the model
consensus.  Howard should make the transition into a post tropical
cyclone in 48 hours, or less.

Howard remains on a west-northwestward track, and continues moving
at around 300/9 kt.  The track forecast philosophy is essentially
unchanged from the previous few advisories.  A mid-level ridge
extending westward from a high pressure system over the southwestern
United States should keep the system on a west-northwestward course
for the next day or two.  Late in the forecast period, weak
post-tropical Howard should turn westward following the near-surface
winds.  The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the
previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 22.5N 117.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  10/0600Z 23.1N 119.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  10/1800Z 23.8N 120.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  11/0600Z 24.3N 122.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  11/1800Z 24.7N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  12/0600Z 24.9N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  12/1800Z 24.9N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
203734_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep0922.gif 09E_091800sair.jpg
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