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[2022] 墨西哥西南一级飓风“霍华德”(09E.Howard) - 柳暗花明,终成飓风 - NHC:75KT

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超强台风

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发表于 2022-8-7 16:34 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-7 17:20 编辑

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 070834
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and dry air appear
to be limiting the current potential for intensification of the
tropical depression.  The low-level center is once again exposed to
the west of a burst of deep convection.  Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB both suggest the system is still at 30
kt and the initial intensity remains unchanged.

The predicted decrease in vertical wind shear has yet to occur.  
However, global models are insistent the shear should relax soon.  
If this does happen, the tropical depression could gradually
strengthen during a brief window of conducive atmospheric and
oceanic environmental conditions over the next 48 hours.  The
cyclone is then expected to weaken after that time when it
encounters sea surface temperatures of 26 degree C and a more stable
and drier airmass. The peak intensity of the official forecast has
been decreased slightly and it now shows the depression becoming a
remnant low by day 5.  

The system is moving west-northwest at 300/13 kt.  A mid-level ridge
to the northeast is expected to steer the depression northwestward
at a slightly decreased forward speed for the next few days.  The
depression is then expected to turn westward as it weakens and
follows the low-level flow.  The updated NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous official forecast and the model consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 16.3N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  07/1800Z 17.3N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  08/0600Z 18.7N 112.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  09/0600Z 21.1N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  09/1800Z 22.0N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  10/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  11/0600Z 23.7N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 24.0N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
083517_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep092022.20220807091529.gif 09E_070600sair.jpg
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发表于 2022-8-7 20:21 | 显示全部楼层

SSD 12Z分析维持T2.0

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-7 20:30 编辑
TXPZ21 KNES 071217
TCSENP

A.  09E (NONAME)

B.  07/1130Z

C.  16.2N

D.  109.4W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T2.0/2.0

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...A SHEAR PATTERN WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A
CENTER LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A SMALL AREA OF COLD OVERCAST RESULTS
IN A DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.5 BASED ON A 24 HOUR STEADY TREND. PT IS 2.0. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...GATLING
09E_BAND13_202208071129.png 09E_BD_202208071129.png

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13W.LUPIT

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发表于 2022-8-7 23:11 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 卢碧碧 于 2022-8-7 23:25 编辑

480
WTPZ44 KNHC 071441
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

The depression remains disheveled this morning, with the center of
the system still partially exposed to the southwest of the deepest
convective activity. This structure is primarily due to dry air
being imported to the center by moderate southwesterly vertical wind
shear (VWS). Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5/35 kt
from TAFB, T2.0/30 kt from SAB, while the latest objective estimate
from UW-CIMSS ADT was T2.5/35 kt. Given the lackluster satellite
presentation, the initial intensity was held at 30 kt for this
advisory.

The depression is now moving northwest as a slightly slower pace,
estimated at 315/10 kt. A mid-level ridge located northeast of the
system is expected to steer it generally northwestward over the next
few days. One interesting note in the immediate future is there is a
weakness in this ridge to the north, partially related to an
upper-level trough currently shearing the depression. If the system
is able to become better aligned vertically, this could lead to a
rightward shift in the short-term track. The NHC track forecast
accounts for this possibility by being located on the right side of
the track guidance envelope over the next 12-36 hours. This track is
just a bit northeast of the previous one, though it blends back
towards the consensus aids by the end of the forecast, when the
system will likely be steered by the low-level trade wind flow.

A weak upper-level trough located northwest of the depression is the
primary feature maintaining southwesterly VWS over the system. Over
the next day or so, both the GFS and ECMWF suggest this feature
should decay and shift southwest, perhaps related to convection
building up-shear around the depression while helping to align its
low and mid-level centers. Should this process occur,
intensification still appears possible. One alternate solution is
that convective outflow is not able to displace the upper-level low
and some amount of shear is maintained over the system. For now, the
latest NHC intensity forecast will maintain a peak of 45 kt in 36-48
hours, right around the time the system will be crossing the 26 C
sea surface temperature (SST) isotherm. After that time, weakening
is expected over even cooler SSTs and a more stable environment. The
system is still expected to become a post-tropical remnant low at
the end of the forecast period. This intensity forecast is on the
high side of the guidance envelope overall, but is close to the
latest HCCA consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 16.8N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  08/0000Z 17.9N 111.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  08/1200Z 19.4N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  09/0000Z 20.7N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  09/1200Z 21.7N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  10/0000Z 22.5N 117.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  10/1200Z 23.1N 119.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  11/1200Z 24.0N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 24.0N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin
0D08DBE1-5F00-4DEB-A9DC-DE8BF00216F3.png
169F4B32-2BD7-4EF5-BCD4-E760CC50ED00.gif
8FE15D63-CBFB-465E-B4BB-46AB9890EE40.jpeg
The wind blows.
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超强台风

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发表于 2022-8-8 04:20 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-8 08:15 编辑

SSD 18Z分析升至T2.5
TXPZ21 KNES 071823
TCSENP

A.  09E (NONAME)

B.  07/1730Z

C.  17.1N

D.  110.3W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T2.5/2.5

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...A SHEAR PATTERN WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND
A CENTER LOCATION LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A LARGE AREA OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. MET IS 2.0 BASED ON A 24HR SLOW
DEVELOPING TREND. PT IS 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...GATLING
09E_BAND01_202208071730.png 09E_BD_202208071730.png


NHC命名HOWARD
EP, 09, 2022080718,   , BEST,   0, 172N, 1104W,  35, 1004, TS,  34, NEQ,   50,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  150,  40,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     HOWARD, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 013,
20222191730_GOES16-ABI-FL-GEOCOLOR-EP092022-2000x2000.jpg
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发表于 2022-8-8 04:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-8 05:35 编辑

663
WTPZ44 KNHC 072036
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

Since this morning, convection has been attempting to build over the
northern semicircle of the cyclone. While the low-level circulation
remains partially exposed to the south, the coldest cloud tops below
-70 C have rotated cyclonically in the up-shear direction, which
could foreshadow an attempt of the mid-level center aligning with
the low-level center in the future. Subjective and objective Dvorak
intensity estimates this afternoon were a consensus T2.5/35 kt.
Consequently, Tropical Depression Nine-E has been upgraded to
Tropical Storm Howard with 35 kt winds this advisory.

The storm has continued a general motion to the northwest, estimated
at 315/10 kt. The track philosophy has not changed much today, as
Howard should continue to move northwestward into a relative
weakness in the mid-level ridging. The track guidance this cycle has
taken a noticeable shift to the northwest over the first 24-48 hours
of the forecast, and the latest NHC track has also been shifted in
that direction. Thereafter, Howard is likely to become vertically
shallow, and increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The track
forecast after 48 hours shows a bend westward in response to
this transition, and follows closely with the consensus aids HCCA
and TVCE.

The short-term intensity forecast is interesting. While Howard is
clearly still feeling some effects of southwesterly vertical wind
shear, the deepest convection has pivoted into the northern side of
the storm. This could be the first signs that the upper-level trough
to the west of Howard is starting to weaken and shift away from the
storm. In addition, the raw model output grids of the GFS, ECMWF,
and HWRF all suggest some sort of center reformation or relocation
under the convection between 12-36 hours. This process may help to
align the low and mid-level centers of the storm. This improved
structure would also likely result in more intensification than
previously shown, and the latest intensity forecast now takes Howard
up to 50 kt in 36 hours. After that, the storm will be crossing a
sharp sea surface temperature gradient and moving into a more stable
environment, ultimately leading to steady weakening and its demise
as a tropical cyclone by 96 hours. The latest NHC intensity forecast
has a higher peak than before, but is still a tad under the latest
HCCA guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 17.6N 110.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  08/0600Z 19.0N 111.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  08/1800Z 20.6N 113.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  09/0600Z 21.8N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  09/1800Z 22.9N 116.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  10/0600Z 23.8N 118.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  10/1800Z 24.5N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  11/1800Z 25.0N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1800Z 24.5N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin
203529_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep092022.20220807212344.gif 09E_071800sair.jpg
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超强台风

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发表于 2022-8-8 08:11 | 显示全部楼层

SSD 00Z分析维持T2.5

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-8 08:15 编辑
TXPZ21 KNES 080008
TCSENP

A.  09E (HOWARD)

B.  07/2330Z

C.  18.0N

D.  111.1W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T2.5/2.5

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES NEAR
SMALL COLD OVERCAST LESS THAN 1.5 DEGREES RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.0. MET
AND PT = 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KIBLER
09E_BAND01_202208072330.png 09E_BD_202208072330.png
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发表于 2022-8-8 09:37 | 显示全部楼层

LLCC半裸,对流切至北侧
最新台风动向欢迎加入{气象乐园}群55541191
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超强台风

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发表于 2022-8-8 10:07 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-8 10:10 编辑

全球热带气旋监测公报

预报:王慧  签发:黄奕武  2022 年 08 月 08 日 10 时


东北太平洋热带风暴“霍华德”生成

时       间:8日08时(北京时)

海       域:东北太平洋

命       名:“霍华德”,HOWARD

中心位置:北纬18.0度、西经111.3度

强度等级:热带风暴

最大风力:8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)

中心气压:1004百帕

参考位置:位于距离墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣玛格丽塔岛偏南方向约710公里的洋面上

变化过程:“霍华德”于昨天夜间生成并加强到8级

预报结论:“霍华德”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向西北方向移动,强度继续加强。


SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20220808100002400_XML_1.jpg


图1 卫星红外监测图像(北京时间2022年08月08日08时00分)


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发表于 2022-8-8 10:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-8 11:10 编辑

014
WTPZ44 KNHC 080235
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

The overall appearance of Howard has improved slightly over the past
several hours, with the center of the cyclone tucked underneath the
southern edge of a mass of intense deep convection.  The latest
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT are
all in agreement that the system remains a 35-kt tropical storm.
However, the recent trend in organization suggests some
strengthening may be soon underway.  An automated weather station on
Socorro Island this evening measured peak sustained wind speeds of
36 kt and a gust to 49 kt, while the center of Howard's circulation
passed about 50 n mi to the south-southwest of that location.

Howard continues its northwestern heading, or 315/11 kt to the
southwest of a mid-level ridge. This motion is expected to continue
over the next couple of days.  After 48 h, the cyclone is expected
to turn toward the west as the weakening system becomes steered
by the large-scale low-level flow.  The latest NHC track forecast
is little changed from the previous one and is near the tightly
clustered track guidance.

The storm has about 36-48 h to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist
atmospheric environment, and weak vertical wind shear.  After that
time the forecast path of the cyclone takes it over progressively
cooler waters and into a much drier and more stable airmass.  The
NHC forecast calls for some modest strengthening through 36 h, then
steady weakening commencing after that time.  The forecast also
indicates that the system will degenerate into a remnant low by 96h.
However, the both the CMC and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery
suggest that this could occur as soon as 60 h from now.  The NHC
intensity forecast is slightly higher than the various multi-model
consensus solutions, and lower than the HWRF and GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 18.4N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  08/1200Z 19.6N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  09/0000Z 21.2N 114.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  09/1200Z 22.4N 116.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  10/0000Z 23.3N 118.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  10/1200Z 24.0N 119.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  11/0000Z 24.5N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  12/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0000Z 24.0N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto
023607_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep092022.20220808024758.gif 09E_080000sair.jpg
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发表于 2022-8-8 14:16 | 显示全部楼层

SSD 06Z分析升至T3.0

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-8 14:20 编辑
TXPZ21 KNES 080611
TCSENP

A.  09E (HOWARD)

B.  08/0530Z

C.  18.9N

D.  111.9W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T3.0/3.0

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H.  REMARKS...6.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. 0202Z SSMIS PASS
GAVE GOOD CENTER FIX AND SHOWED TIGHT BANDING AROUND CENTER. SHEAR HAS
RELAXED LAST 6 HR. MET AND PT=3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    08/0202Z 18.7N 111.7W SSMIS


...KONON
09E_BAND13_202208080530.png 09E_BD_202208080530.png 20220808.0202.f17.91pct91h91v.09E.HOWARD.35kts.1002mb.18N.111.3W.075pc.jpg
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