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[2022] 墨西哥西南一级飓风“霍华德”(09E.Howard) - 柳暗花明,终成飓风 - NHC:75KT

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论坛版主-副热带高压

东风吹柳日初长

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发表于 2022-8-5 02:17 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2022-8-9 21:27 编辑

EP, 99, 2022080418,   , BEST,   0, 105N,  950W,  30, 1007, DB

20220804.1720.goes-17.ir.99E.INVEST.30kts.1007mb.10.5N.95W.100pc.jpg
two_pac_2d1 (8).png
two_pac_5d1 (8).png

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a broad area of low pressure located offshore of
the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the weekend and into early next week, remaining
well offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
颱風巨爵 + 3 + 3 99E

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十里秋叶红,执笔画棠为君留
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超强台风

积分
10456
发表于 2022-8-5 04:10 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC: TCFA

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-5 09:35 编辑

WTPN21 PHNC 042030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 94.6W TO 13.4N 102.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 95.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.2N 94.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 95.0W, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH
OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
BROAD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF A SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. A 041530Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 18-23 KNOT WINDS ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VWS AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052030Z.//
NNNN
ep992022.20220804195055.gif 99E_041800sair.jpg 20220804.1541.mtb.ASCAT.wind.99E.INVEST.30kts-1007mb.105N.950W.25km.noqc.jpg
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超强台风

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发表于 2022-8-5 07:44 | 显示全部楼层

NHC: 70%/90%

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-5 07:50 编辑

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad low pressure area located offshore of the coasts of
Guatemala and southern Mexico is producing widespread, but
disorganized, shower activity. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days. The system is
forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over
the weekend and into early next week, remaining well offshore of
the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png epac.png
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超强台风

积分
10456
发表于 2022-8-5 13:11 | 显示全部楼层

NHC: 70%/90%

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-5 13:20 编辑

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad low pressure area located offshore of the coasts of
Guatemala and southern Mexico continues to produce widespread, but
disorganized, shower activity. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days. The system is
forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over
the weekend and into early next week, remaining well offshore of
the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png epac.png
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发表于 2022-8-5 14:05 | 显示全部楼层
GFS近几报一直支持99E成旋,00Z报巅峰约973百帕,有机会冲击飓风强度

gfs_mslp_wind_epac_17.png
99E_gefs_latest.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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超强台风

积分
10456
发表于 2022-8-5 19:28 | 显示全部楼层

NHC: 70%/90%

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-5 19:30 编辑

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad low pressure area located offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized shower activity.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next
couple of days. The system is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the weekend and into early
next week, remaining well offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png epac.png
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39

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4717

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积分

超强台风

积分
10456
发表于 2022-8-6 04:05 | 显示全部楼层

NHC: 70%/90%

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-6 04:20 编辑

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Satellite imagery indicates a broad area of low pressure located
offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico continues
to produce an elongated area of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend.
The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at about
15 mph through early next week, remaining well offshore of the coast
of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png epac.png
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超强台风

积分
10456
发表于 2022-8-6 04:05 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC: TCFA REISSUED

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-6 04:15 编辑

WTPN21 PHNC 052030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/042021Z AUG 22//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 042030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 102.1W TO 14.5N 107.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 102.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 10.5N 95.0W, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 102.6W, APPROXIMATELY 314 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
051336Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT FRAGMENTED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE (20-30KT)
VWS, WITH DECENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE (26-27C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW THAT INVEST 99E
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062030Z.
//
NNNN
ep992022.20220805192603.gif 99E_051800sair.jpg 20220805.1336.f17.91h.99E.INVEST.30kts.1007mb.12.1N.100W.070pc.jpg
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超强台风

积分
10456
发表于 2022-8-6 07:45 | 显示全部楼层

NHC: 80%/90%

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-6 07:50 编辑

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with a
broad low pressure area located offshore of the coasts of southern
and southwestern Mexico is getting better organized.  If current
trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form in the
next day or two.  The system is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward at about 15 mph through early next week,
remaining well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png epac.png
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超强台风

积分
10456
发表于 2022-8-6 13:31 | 显示全部楼层

NHC: 90%/90%

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-8-6 13:35 编辑

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with an elongated area of low pressure area located
offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico
continues to gradually become better organized.  If current
trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form on
Saturday or Saturday night.  The system is forecast to move
generally west-northwestward at about 15 mph through early next
week, remaining well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.  
Additional information on this system can be found in high seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png epac.png
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