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[南半球] 塔斯曼海SH01-0529 - Met Service认定副热带气旋并发布多项预警

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发表于 2022-5-29 08:56 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 沙漠玫瑰 于 2022-5-31 12:18 编辑

Milford Coastal Forecast
Storm warning

Today: Northeast 25 knots, easing to 15 knots for a time inshore at night. Sea rough, easing for a time inshore late. Long period southwest swell 1 metre. Northerly swell 1 metre developing. Fair visibility in showers until early evening.

Monday: Northeast 30 knots, rising to 40 knots during morning and to 50 knots in the evening. Sea becoming high. Northerly swell rising to 5 metres offshore. Long period westerly swell 2 metres. Poor visibility in periods of rain from morning.

Tuesday: Northerly easing to 25 knots during the morning. Rising to northeast 40 knots during the evening. High sea easing. Heavy northwest swell.

Wednesday: Northeast easing to 30 knots during the morning. Very rough sea easing. Heavy northwest swell.

Thursday: Northeast 25 knots turning southwest 25 knots. Sea rough. Heavy northwest swell easing. Southwest swell becoming moderate.

Issued: 12:42pm Sun, 29 May

New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before:
4:45am, 1pm, 4:45pm, 11:30pm
Updates and amendments may be issued at any time.

Funded by NZ Government
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-5-29 08:57 | 显示全部楼层
A large, complex low in the Tasman Sea is moving slowly southwards. It extends a front over the north of the North Island today, which moves over the remainder of the country on Monday. A second, fast moving front affects the country from late Tuesday through early Wednesday, followed by an unsettled northwesterly flow.

Issued: 12:43pm Sun 29 May
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-5-29 08:58 | 显示全部楼层
GFS
26.phase1 (1).png
26.phase2 (1).png
26.track (1).png
26.track.current (1).png
26.windswath (1).png
26.slp (1).png
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-5-29 09:04 | 显示全部楼层
.
Screenshot_20220529_090328.png
Screenshot_20220529_090447.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-5-29 09:43 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 沙漠玫瑰 于 2022-5-29 09:48 编辑

此外,数值还报出另一个与其互旋的系统,同样发展出暖心,根据BOM天气图和数值预报,这个系统应该是大澳大利亚湾那个
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-5-29 09:45 | 显示全部楼层
BOM认为其没有锋面
IDY20301.mslp-precip.003.png
IDX0894.gif
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论坛版主-副热带高压

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发表于 2022-5-29 09:58 | 显示全部楼层


后期南纬45-50度的副热?
冷涡冷涡冷涡慢慢游 游啊游啊游从不觉不自由
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-5-29 10:49 | 显示全部楼层
似乎开始卷眼
Screenshot_20220529_104839.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-5-29 14:11 | 显示全部楼层
Severe Weather Warnings
Heavy rain and northeast gales for parts of northern New Zealand and northwest Tasman

A deepening subtropical low is expected to move southwards over the Tasman Sea today and Monday. An associated front, preceded by strong and moist northeasterlies, is forecast to move southeastwards across the country, bringing strong winds and rain to many areas. Thunderstorms and localised downpours are also possible over northern parts of the country during Monday, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in force for some regions.

People are advised to keep up to date with forecasts in case any changes are made.
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-5-29 14:11 | 显示全部楼层
Heavy Rain Warning - Orange

Impact: Heavy rain may cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly. Surface flooding and slips are also possible and driving conditions may be hazardous.

Area: Northland

Period: 18hrs from 3pm Sun, 29 May - 9am Mon, 30 May

Forecast: Expect 80 to 120 mm of rain, with the largest accumulations likely in the north and east. Peak rates of 25 to 40 mm per hour possible in thunderstorms during Monday morning.

Area: Coromandel Peninsula

Period: 15hrs from midnight Sun, 29 May - 3pm Mon, 30 May

Forecast: Expect 80 to 110 mm of rain, with the largest accumulations likely about the ranges. Peak rates of 25 to 40 mm per hour possible in thunderstorms.

Area: Gisborne from Ruatoria northwards

Period: 18hrs from 9am Mon, 30 May - 3am Tue, 31 May

Forecast: Expect 90 to 140 mm of rain, with the largest accumulations likely about the ranges. Peak rates of 20 to 30 mm per hour possible from Monday afternoon.

Area: Bay of Plenty including Rotorua

Period: 21hrs from 3am Mon, 30 May - midnight Mon, 30 May

Forecast: Expect 130 to 180 mm of rain, with the largest accumulations likely about the ranges. Peak rates of 25 to 40 mm per hour possible in thunderstorms from late Monday morning.
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