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[2022] 阿拉巴马州境内90L - 31.0N 87.4W - 北大新风季首扰 - NHC:10%

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发表于 2022-5-23 02:57 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2022-5-24 06:00 编辑

90L INVEST 220522 1800 26.6N 88.0W ATL 25 1014

20220522.1830.goes-16.ir.90L.INVEST.25kts.1014mb.26.6N.88W.100pc.jpg
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png

1. North Central Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with
a surface trough of low pressure over the north central Gulf of
Mexico. Surface pressures remain high, and environmental conditions
do not appear favorable for significant development before this
system moves inland over the central Gulf Coast in a day or so.
Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall
and gusty winds over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Additional
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
炎煌深沉 + 3 + 3

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Wednesday Morning, 3 A.M.,
The Sound of Silence
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论坛版主-副热带高压

@xiaoqianWX 我超菜的

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2022-5-23 08:07 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 王小谦同学/ 于 2022-5-23 08:12 编辑

墨西哥湾2天前生成的MCC后转化为MCV
不过地面风场表现之前一直并不接近TC性质并风切较大
现在风切小了 发展出地面环流了 也快登陆了 基本没有什么机会升格(坐等NHC打脸)
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发表于 2022-5-23 09:29 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:10%/10%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. North Central Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico about 150 miles south of Pensacola, Florida.  This system is
producing disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds across portions
of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and over the central and
northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures remain high, and strong
upper-level winds should prevent significant development before this
system moves inland over the central Gulf Coast later tonight or on
Monday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected to continue across portions of the central Gulf Coast
and will spread across the southeast U.S. during the next day or so.
Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be
found in products issued by your local National Weather Service
Forecast Office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
two_atl_2d0.png
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d1.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2022-5-23 09:46 | 显示全部楼层
昨晚ASCAT风场扫到25-30kt风旗,但环流似乎没有闭合

ascat_20220522_143600_metopc_18364_eps_o_coa_3203_ovw_l2.png
ascat_20220522_152400_metopb_50207_eps_o_coa_3202_ovw_l2.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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热带风暴

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发表于 2022-5-23 11:55 | 显示全部楼层
似乎马上要登陆了
90L.png 90L-RADAR.png
登陆地(orange beach)附近的网络摄像头(4小时前白天时的)
orange beach.png
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强热带风暴

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发表于 2022-5-23 12:46 | 显示全部楼层
應該是已經登陸了?
螢幕擷取畫面 2022-05-23 122922.png
螢幕擷取畫面 2022-05-23 122838.png

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热带低压-GW

13W.LUPIT

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472
发表于 2022-5-23 13:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 卢碧碧 于 2022-5-23 13:14 编辑

数值预报
90L_tracks_latest.png
90L_gefs_latest.png
The wind blows.
曾用号:Wutip(UID:109926)
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超强台风

Super Typhoon

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发表于 2022-5-23 13:17 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2022-5-22 21:54 编辑

根据雷达图像已经登陆

17139065.gif
46715442.gif
20220523.0234.mtc.ASCAT.wind.90L.INVEST.30kts-1014mb.285N.876W.25km.noqc.jpg
20220523.0321.mtb.ASCAT.wind.90L.INVEST.30kts-1014mb.285N.876W.25km.noqc.jpg
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强台风

积分
7692
发表于 2022-5-23 13:45 | 显示全部楼层

NHC: 0%/0%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2022-5-23 13:55 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. North Central Gulf of Mexico Coast:
Surface observations and radar data indicate that the area of low
pressure previously over the north-central Gulf of Mexico has now
moved inland about 15 miles west-northwest of Pensacola, Florida. As
this system continues to move further inland tonight, tropical
cyclone development is not expected. However, the system continues
to produce disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds across
portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama and this
activity is expected to spread northeastward across the southeastern
U.S. over the next day or so. Additional information on the rainfall
and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office and Excessive Rainfall
Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Papin
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png
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强台风

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发表于 2022-5-23 19:22 | 显示全部楼层

NHC维持 0%/0%

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2022-5-23 19:25 编辑

two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d1.png

ABNT20 KNHC 231121
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southeastern United States:
An area of low pressure moved inland overnight along the
north-central Gulf of Mexico coast, and is now located over
south-central Alabama.  The low is expected to continue to move
over land today, and tropical cyclone development is not expected.  
However, locally heavy rains associated with this system will
continue to spread northeastward across portions of the
southeastern United States over the next day or so. Additional
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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