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[2021] 2114号超强台风“灿都”(19W.Chanthu) - 三度C5,掠过台浙沪 - JMA:115KT JTWC:155KT

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强台风

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发表于 2021-9-2 11:44 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 327 于 2021-9-20 17:00 编辑

94W INVEST 210902 0000 8.4N 152.0E WPAC 15 1010

20210902.0310.himawari-8.vis.94W.INVEST.15kts.1002mb.8.4N.152E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 2金钱 +5 威望 +15 收起 理由
炎煌深沉 + 10 CMA:超强台风
ty2019 + 5 + 5

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分区版主-高空急流

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发表于 2021-9-2 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
GFS近期预报后期登陆日本,ECMWF预报不确定是否此系统
Strong claims require strong evidence.
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热带低压-GW

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发表于 2021-9-2 13:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 南海一粟 于 2021-9-2 13:44 编辑
327 发表于 2021-9-2 12:00
GFS近期预报后期登陆日本,ECMWF预报不确定是否此系统


EC報的是西面的系統
Screenshot_20210902_134130.jpg
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分区版主-高空急流

Rank: 8Rank: 8

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发表于 2021-9-2 15:00 | 显示全部楼层
GFS新报明显西调,ECMWF很弱难以分辨
gfs_mslp_uv850_ea_39.png
gfs_mslp_uv850_ea_45.png
Strong claims require strong evidence.
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发表于 2021-9-2 15:12 | 显示全部楼层
辐散良好,辐合较弱。但不知为何无明显涡度

wgmsdvg-8.gif wgmsconv-3.gif wgmsvor-34.gif
一路伴盈,形盈不离,如盈随形,盈随心动img]https://bbs.typhoon.org.cn/static/image/smiley/default/cry.gif[/img]
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论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2021-9-3 10:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2021-9-3 10:55 编辑

abpwsair.jpg
20210902.2203.mta.ASCAT.wind.94W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb.93N.1480E.25km.noqc.jpg
ABPW10 PGTW 030100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030100Z-030600ZSEP2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021951ZSEP2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02SEP21 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 158.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1075 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MISAWA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 022100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N
144.8E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN, AFB. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION CYCLING OVER A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. CONFIDENCE IN THE BEST TRACK POSITION IS HIGH WITH  
SUPPORT PROVIDED BY A 022203Z METOP-A BULLSEYE PASS WHICH SHOWED
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 94W
POSITIONED NEAR THE DIVERGENT PORTION OF A COL REGION PROVIDING GOOD
DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VWS (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS, AND
VERY WARM (30 TO 31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS AN OUTLIER,
FORECASTING MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS IN THE VICINITY OR JUST
WEST OF THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO
LOW.//
NNNN
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台风

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发表于 2021-9-3 10:47 | 显示全部楼层
20210903.0210.himawari-8.vis.94W.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.9.7N.144.8E.100pc.jpg 20210902.2320.mtb.ASCAT.wind.94W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb.93N.1480E.25km.jpg wpac.png
EC最新集系开始支持94W
路为纸,地成册;行作笔,心当墨。
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强台风

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发表于 2021-9-3 11:51 | 显示全部楼层
GFS认为登陆日本,另有一报报出9914路径

94W_tracks_latest-3.png 94W_geps_latest-3.png 94W_gefs_latest-3.png
一路伴盈,形盈不离,如盈随形,盈随心动img]https://bbs.typhoon.org.cn/static/image/smiley/default/cry.gif[/img]
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热带风暴

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发表于 2021-9-3 18:27 | 显示全部楼层
预报还是很不好看啊
94W_geps_latest.png
来这学习,资料共享
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发表于 2021-9-4 14:13 | 显示全部楼层

数值大幅西调,主流数值认为登陆东南沿海


94W_tracks_latest-6.png 94W_gefs_latest-7.png 94W_geps_latest-7.png
一路伴盈,形盈不离,如盈随形,盈随心动img]https://bbs.typhoon.org.cn/static/image/smiley/default/cry.gif[/img]
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