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[2021] 2108号热带风暴“尼伯特”(11W.Nepartak) - 史上首个登陆宫城县的台风

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论坛版主-副热带高压

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发表于 2021-7-22 08:50 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2021-7-28 15:15 编辑

90W INVEST 210722 0000 22.0N 142.0E WPAC 15 0

20210722.0030.himawari-8.vis.90W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.22N.142E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +5 威望 +5 收起 理由
炎煌深沉 + 5 + 5

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发表于 2021-7-22 09:37 | 显示全部楼层
JMA予想天气图显示+48h LPA
20210721190731_0_Z__C_010000_20210721120000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas24_JCP600x512_JRcolor.png
20210721191531_0_Z__C_010000_20210721120000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas48_JCP600x512_JRcolor.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-7-22 10:00 | 显示全部楼层
将影响烟花路径,并可能移向日本
Strong claims require strong evidence.
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发表于 2021-7-22 10:14 | 显示全部楼层
这个是数值一直预测会干扰烟花路径的“东侧系统”,日本海西行?
不属于这个时代的愚者,灰雾之上的神秘主宰,执掌好运的黄黑之王
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发表于 2021-7-22 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
强度发展空间不大,移向日本本州东北部。5天左右TS登陆。估计对奥运室外项目有影响。
GZLMSufPCPN120.gif
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Sing For You~

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发表于 2021-7-22 14:38 | 显示全部楼层
abpwsair.jpg
ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZJUL2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220152ZJUL2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZJUL2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22JUL21 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 109.1E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM WEST OF HONG KONG,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 22JUL21 0000Z, TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.3N 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 216 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, AND
HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.4N 144.9E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM NORTH OF GUAM. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM/DEPRESSION, GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE
FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
VERY WEAK, DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATES A SHARP TROUGH
WITH CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS (STRONG NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-30 KNOTS WITH BROAD DIVERGENCE) NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS,
INVEST 90W IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH WEAK BAROCLINICITY. AFTER
TAU 48, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD CENTRAL HONSHU, GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS OVER A WARM POOL OF WATER (SST 28-29C) EAST OF
THE KANTO PLAIN. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO
LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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发表于 2021-7-22 16:08 | 显示全部楼层
JMA预报+48h升格TD
20210722023531_0_Z__C_010000_20210722000000_MET_CHT_JCIasas_JCP600x512_JRcolor_T.png
20210722052830_0_Z__C_010000_20210722000000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas24_JCP600x512_JRcolor.png
20210722075000_0_Z__C_010000_20210722000000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas48_JCP600x512_JRcolor.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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台风

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发表于 2021-7-22 19:23 | 显示全部楼层
感觉是云雀转世
90W_tracks_latest-6.png
90W_gefs_latest-5.png
90W_geps_latest-5.png
一路伴盈,形盈不离,如盈随形,盈随心动img]https://bbs.typhoon.org.cn/static/image/smiley/default/cry.gif[/img]
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发表于 2021-7-22 21:16 | 显示全部楼层

日本海虽然最近海温偏高离谱,但对于台风来说还是低了点,特别是东北部海域,真按这个路径应该是很难撑到朝鲜的
不属于这个时代的愚者,灰雾之上的神秘主宰,执掌好运的黄黑之王
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热带风暴

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发表于 2021-7-22 21:35 | 显示全部楼层
HWRF首报上望53kt,975hPa
WP, 90, 2021072206, 03, HWRF,  84, 356N, 1459E,  53,  975,
3.phase1.png 3.track.png hwrf_mslp_wind_90W_29.png hwrf_ref_90W_28.png hwrf_satIR_90W_fh6-126.gif
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