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[2021] 2106号热带气旋“烟花”(09W.In-fa)机构发报专帖

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发表于 2021-7-16 05:16 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 tcfa_gw 于 2021-7-18 03:10 编辑

WTPN21 PGTW 152030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 132.2E TO 21.5N 131.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.4N 132.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5N 137.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY
593 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), A 151639Z AMSR2 36GHZ, AND AN
ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE
ZONE ON THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
DESPITE THE ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE ZONE, 98W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IN THE
UPPER LEVELS, THE PATTERN IS COMPLEX WITH MULTIPLE STEERING FORCES;
THE FAVORABLE POLEWARD POSITIONING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
ENHANCE OUTFLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS A
STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL ENHANCE CONSOLIDATION. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A STRONG DISPARITY AMONGST THE NUMERICAL MODELS OVER THE TRACK
AND INTENSIFICATION TIMELINE. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GFS HAS 98W
INTENSIFYING WITHIN 18-36 HOURS AND TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST AT A
HIGHER SPEED OF ADVANCE TO THE RYUKYU ISLANDS, WHILE GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE ECMWF HAVE A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION PATTERN WITH A SLOWER
SPEED OF ADVANCE TO KYUSHU, JAPAN. CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL AT HANDLING THE
COMPLEXITIES OF 98W OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162030Z.
//
NNNN
wp9821.gif 98W_152030sair.jpg

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发表于 2021-7-16 06:00 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2021-7-16 16:18 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/09W/#01/07-16 06Z

本帖最后由 933954 于 2021-7-16 17:05 编辑

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 134.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 134.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 18.5N 134.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 19.6N 134.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 20.8N 134.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 22.1N 133.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 23.8N 131.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 25.4N 128.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 26.8N 125.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 134.6E.
16JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
659 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z.
//
NNNN
wp0921.gif

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发表于 2021-7-16 17:02 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/09W/#01/07-16 06Z Prognostic Reasoning

本帖最后由 933954 于 2021-7-16 17:04 编辑

WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.5N 134.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 20 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 659 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 8 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAK CENTRAL
CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN A BROAD, ELONGATED AREA OF DENSE CONVECTION
AND AN UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER. THE WINDFIELD DEPICTED IN 160130Z ASCAT-B DATA
FURTHER DEPICTS A BROAD (LESS THAN 60 NM) AREA OF CYCLONIC WINDS
WHICH ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINE TRACING FROM THE MSI
LOOP LENDS ONLY OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 20 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE WINDS DEPICTED IN THE ASCAT-B DATA, WHICH INCLUDES
5-10 KTS WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND ISOLATED 30-40 KTS
WINDS DISPLACED 30-60 NM FROM THE STORM CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A
T1.5 (25 KTS) DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY FROM KNES BASED ON ANALYSIS
OF THE OVERALL LACK OF ROBUST CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR TO
THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 09W IS TRACKING THROUGH A COMPLEX STEERING
AND OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT AND APPEARS TO BE NESTED ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, ROUGHLY 600 NM DIAMETER MONSOON
DEPRESSION. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE. DURING THIS TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL SLOWLY WESTWARD.
AS A RESULT, THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THIS CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW OF TD
09W AND LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, TD 09W WILL BEGIN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE STR THAT IS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND OUTFLOW ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME, TD 09W WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS OKINAWA, JAPAN AND REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72.
THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 120. THERE
IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
DUE TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM ONE ANOTHER IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THIS DIVERGENCE IS
LARGELY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF A STR
REORIENTATION AND REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED
TO THE NORTH OF TD 09W. THE GFS (DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE) AND
NAVGEM SOLUTIONS DEPICT A POLEWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120. BOTH OF THESE MODELS BRING THE
FORECAST TRACK NORTH OF OKINAWA BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. THE UKMET
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK GUIDANCE PROVIDE MUCH SLOWER TRACK
SPEEDS AND FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PASS SOUTH OF OKINAWA AT TAU 120.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST BEHIND AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS THUS HEDGED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

09W_160600sair.jpg

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发表于 2021-7-16 21:14 | 显示全部楼层

JMA/TD-a/07-16 12Z

本帖最后由 MTWP 于 2021-7-17 08:49 编辑

熱帯低気圧a
2021年07月16日22時15分発表
WM_TY-TC2109-V3_20210716-210000.jpg
16日21時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯19度10分(19.2度)
東経135度0分(135.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

17日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        日本の南
予報円の中心        北緯21度20分(21.3度)
東経133度35分(133.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)

18日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        南大東島近海
予報円の中心        北緯23度30分(23.5度)
東経132度0分(132.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        990hPa
中心付近の最大風速        25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径        240km(130NM)

19日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        強い
存在地域        南大東島近海
予報円の中心        北緯24度55分(24.9度)
東経129度50分(129.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        970hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径        370km(200NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 440km(240NM)

20日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        強い
存在地域        沖縄本島近海
予報円の中心        北緯25度50分(25.8度)
東経126度30分(126.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径        520km(280NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 600km(330NM)

21日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        強い
存在地域        東シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯26度35分(26.6度)
東経122度30分(122.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径        700km(390NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 800km(440NM)

  1. WTPQ30 RJTD 161200
  2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
  3. REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 19.2N 135.0E
  4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  5.   A TD IS LOCATED AT 19.2N, 135.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  6.   POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  7.   POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
  8.   PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30KNOTS. THE
  9.   SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  10.   INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
  11.   THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  12.   CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON EARLY STAGE DVORAK INTENSITY
  13.   ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  14. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  15.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
  16.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
  17.   SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC.
  18. 3.TRACK FORECAST
  19.   THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  20.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  21.   GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
  22.   THEN MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  23.   PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  24.   CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
  25. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  26.   THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  27.   INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
  28.   UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
  29.   ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
  30. =
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呱呱坠地曰蕾,茁茁抽长曰牡丹;血气方刚曰松叶,天伦叙乐谓之柳;至于回首数十年前,真如隔世,明日花之谓也。
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 楼主| 发表于 2021-7-16 21:53 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/09W/#02/07-16 12Z

本帖最后由 Victory 于 2021-7-16 23:09 编辑

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 18.8N 134.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 134.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 19.9N 134.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 21.1N 134.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 22.1N 133.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 22.9N 132.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 24.5N 130.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 25.8N 128.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 26.7N 125.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 134.7E.
16JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
603 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z
IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
NNNN
wp0921.gif

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 楼主| 发表于 2021-7-16 22:11 | 显示全部楼层

CWB/TD08/07-16 12Z

本帖最后由 Victory 于 2021-7-17 02:39 编辑

熱帶性低氣壓TD08
現況
2021年07月16日20時
中心位置在北緯 18.0 度,東經 135.0 度
過去移動方向 -
過去移動時速 -公里
中心氣壓 1004百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 17 公里
預測 07月17日02時
中心位置在北緯 18.9 度,東經 134.7 度
中心氣壓1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 20 公里
預測 07月17日08時
中心位置在北緯 19.9 度,東經 134.3 度
中心氣壓1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 110 公里

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 14 公里
預測 07月17日14時
中心位置在北緯 20.6 度,東經 134.0 度
中心氣壓1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 14 公里
預測 07月17日20時
中心位置在北緯 21.3 度,東經 133.7 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 200 公里
預測 24 小時內有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢

預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 13 公里
預測 07月18日08時
中心位置在北緯 22.6 度,東經 133.0 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 250 公里

預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為
西北 時速 11 公里
預測 07月18日20時
中心位置在北緯 23.6 度,東經 132.2 度
中心氣壓985百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 25 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 33 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 120 公里
70%機率半徑 270 公里

預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為
西北 時速 12 公里
預測 07月19日20時
中心位置在北緯 25.2 度,東經 130.0 度
中心氣壓970百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 33 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 43 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 150 公里
十級風暴風半徑 50 公里
70%機率半徑 390 公里

預測 72-96 小時平均移向移速為
西北西 時速 14 公里
預測 07月20日20時
中心位置在北緯 26.6 度,東經 126.9 度
中心氣壓960百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 38 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 48 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 180 公里
十級風暴風半徑 60 公里
70%機率半徑 500 公里

預測 96-120 小時平均移向移速為
西北西 時速 18 公里
預測 07月21日20時
中心位置在北緯 28.1 度,東經 123.0 度
中心氣壓960百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 38 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 48 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 180 公里
十級風暴風半徑 60 公里
70%機率半徑 670 公里



熱帶性低氣壓TD08
現況
2021年07月16日20時
中心位置在北緯 18.0 度,東經 135.0 度
過去移動方向 -
過去移動時速 -公里
中心氣壓 1004百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺

預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 20 公里
預測 07月17日08時
中心位置在北緯 19.9 度,東經 134.3 度
中心氣壓1002百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 110 公里

預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 14 公里
預測 07月17日20時
中心位置在北緯 21.3 度,東經 133.7 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 200 公里
預測 24 小時內有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢

預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 13 公里
預測 07月18日08時
中心位置在北緯 22.6 度,東經 133.0 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 250 公里

預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為
西北 時速 11 公里
預測 07月18日20時
中心位置在北緯 23.6 度,東經 132.2 度
中心氣壓985百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 25 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 33 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 120 公里
70%機率半徑 270 公里

預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為
西北 時速 12 公里
預測 07月19日20時
中心位置在北緯 25.2 度,東經 130.0 度
中心氣壓970百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 33 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 43 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 150 公里
十級風暴風半徑 50 公里
70%機率半徑 390 公里

預測 72-96 小時平均移向移速為
西北西 時速 14 公里
預測 07月20日20時
中心位置在北緯 26.6 度,東經 126.9 度
中心氣壓960百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 38 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 48 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 180 公里
十級風暴風半徑 60 公里
70%機率半徑 500 公里

預測 96-120 小時平均移向移速為
西北西 時速 18 公里
預測 07月21日20時
中心位置在北緯 28.1 度,東經 123.0 度
中心氣壓960百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 38 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 48 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 180 公里
十級風暴風半徑 60 公里
70%機率半徑 670 公里
Download_PTA_202107161200_TD08_zhtw.png Download_WSP_202107161200_TD08_zhtw.png

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 楼主| 发表于 2021-7-16 23:05 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/09W/#02/07-16 12Z Prognostic Reasoning

本帖最后由 Victory 于 2021-7-17 03:03 编辑

WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.8N 134.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 603 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 9 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING
CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO COMPLETELY OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES PRESENT IN THE EIR
LOOP ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT IN A TIMELY
161240Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIAGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 (25 KTS, PGTW) AND T1.5
(25 KTS, KNES), DATA FROM A 160856Z SMAP RETRIEVAL REFLECTING 20-25
KTS AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESIMATE OF
T1.7 (27 KTS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR
POSITIONED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T1.0 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 27 KTS AT 161140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 09W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. DURING THIS TIME, FAVORABLE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO
55 KTS BY THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, A REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING
RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER
MAINLAND CHINA BY THIS TIME AND POTENTIALLY ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS ENHANCED OUTFLOW, COUPLED WITH LOW VWS AND
CONTINUED WARM SST, WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER, WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72.
AFTER TAU 96, VWS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE (GREATER THAN 20 KTS) AND
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO REFLECT A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE THAT LIKELY STEMS
FROM THE DYNAMIC REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND IN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF STORM INTENSIFICATION. THE SPREAD IN MODEL
TRACK GUIDANCE IS BOUND BY THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS THAT TRACK THE VORTEX NORTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN BETWEEN
TAUS 72 AND 96 AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
SOLTUIONS THAT TRACK THE STORM CENTER SOUTH OF OKINAWA AT TAU 96.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED BETWEEN THESE TRACK AND IS PLACED
ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TO THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.8N 134.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 603 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 9 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING
CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO COMPLETELY OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES PRESENT IN THE EIR
LOOP ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT IN A TIMELY
161240Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIAGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 (25 KTS, PGTW) AND T1.5
(25 KTS, KNES), DATA FROM A 160856Z SMAP RETRIEVAL REFLECTING 20-25
KTS AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T1.7 (27 KTS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR
POSITIONED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T1.0 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 27 KTS AT 161140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 09W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. DURING THIS TIME, FAVORABLE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO
55 KTS BY THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, A REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING
RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER
MAINLAND CHINA BY THIS TIME AND POTENTIALLY ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS ENHANCED OUTFLOW, COUPLED WITH LOW VWS AND
CONTINUED WARM SST, WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER, WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72.
AFTER TAU 96, VWS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE (GREATER THAN 20 KTS) AND
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO REFLECT A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE THAT LIKELY STEMS
FROM THE DYNAMIC REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND IN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF STORM INTENSIFICATION. THE SPREAD IN MODEL
TRACK GUIDANCE IS BOUND BY THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS THAT TRACK THE VORTEX NORTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN BETWEEN
TAUS 72 AND 96 AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS THAT TRACK THE STORM CENTER SOUTH OF OKINAWA AT TAU 96.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED BETWEEN THESE TRACK AND IS PLACED
ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO
TO THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
09W_161200sair.jpg

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 楼主| 发表于 2021-7-17 00:05 | 显示全部楼层

JMA/TD-a/07-16 15Z

本帖最后由 Victory 于 2021-7-17 00:11 编辑

熱帯低気圧a
2021年07月17日01時05分発表

17日00時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯19度25分(19.4度)
東経135度0分(135.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

18日00時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        日本の南
予報円の中心        北緯21度35分(21.6度)
東経133度30分(133.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)

18日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        南大東島近海
予報円の中心        北緯23度30分(23.5度)
東経132度0分(132.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        990hPa
中心付近の最大風速        25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径        240km(130NM)

19日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        強い
存在地域        南大東島近海
予報円の中心        北緯24度55分(24.9度)
東経129度50分(129.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        970hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径        370km(200NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 440km(240NM)

20日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        強い
存在地域        沖縄本島近海
予報円の中心        北緯25度50分(25.8度)
東経126度30分(126.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径        520km(280NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 600km(330NM)

21日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        強い
存在地域        東シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯26度35分(26.6度)
東経122度30分(122.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径        700km(390NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 800km(440NM)
WM_TY-TC2109-V3_20210717-000000.jpg

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 楼主| 发表于 2021-7-17 03:17 | 显示全部楼层

JMA/TD-a/07-16 18Z

本帖最后由 Victory 于 2021-7-17 08:51 编辑

熱帯低気圧a
2021年07月17日04時15分発表

17日03時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯19度35分(19.6度)
東経135度0分(135.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

18日03時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        日本の南
予報円の中心        北緯22度10分(22.2度)
東経132度55分(132.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)

19日03時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        南大東島近海
予報円の中心        北緯24度0分(24.0度)
東経131度0分(131.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        990hPa
中心付近の最大風速        25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径        240km(130NM)

20日03時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        強い
存在地域        沖縄本島近海
予報円の中心        北緯25度20分(25.3度)
東経128度50分(128.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        975hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35m/s(65kt)
最大瞬間風速        50m/s(95kt)
予報円の半径        370km(200NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 450km(245NM)

21日03時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        強い
存在地域        沖縄本島近海
予報円の中心        北緯26度10分(26.2度)
東経125度50分(125.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径        520km(280NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 650km(340NM)

22日03時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        強い
存在地域        東シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯26度50分(26.8度)
東経122度50分(122.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧        965hPa
中心付近の最大風速        40m/s(75kt)
最大瞬間風速        55m/s(105kt)
予報円の半径        700km(390NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 850km(450NM)
WM_TY-TC2109-V3_20210717-030000.jpg
  1. WTPQ30 RJTD 161800
  2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
  3. REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 19.6N 135.0E
  4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  5.   A TD IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 135.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  6.   POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  7.   POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
  8.   PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30KNOTS. THE
  9.   SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  10.   INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  11.   OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
  12.   HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  13.   INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  14. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  15.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
  16.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
  17.   SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC.
  18. 3.TRACK FORECAST
  19.   THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  20.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  21.   GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
  22.   THEN MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  23.   PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  24.   CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
  25. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  26.   THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  27.   INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
  28.   UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
  29.   ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
  30. =
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