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[2021] 2105号热带气旋“蔷琵”(06W.Champi)机构发报专帖

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发表于 2021-6-20 21:46 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2021-6-24 08:35 编辑

wp9421.gif
94W_201330sair.jpg
WTPN22 PGTW 201300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 149.3E TO 13.1N 143.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 149.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 153.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 305
NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION.
A PARTIAL 200252Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A SHARP EASTERLY
WAVE OR A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CYCLING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND STRONGER (15-20 KT) WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT IN THE GRADIENT FLOW. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211300Z.
//
NNNN

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发表于 2021-6-20 21:50 | 显示全部楼层

2105号热带气旋“蔷琵”机构发报指引

本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2021-6-27 23:13 编辑

6月20日:
JTWC  TCFA

6月21日:
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

6月22日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CWB  00   06   12   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

6月23日:
JMA   00(命名)   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06(Relocated)--Prognostic Reasoning(Relocated)
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

6月24日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  06   12   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

6月25日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00   06   12   18
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

6月26日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12   15   18   21
CMA  00   06   09   12   18   21
         台风公报(06:00)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12   18
CWB  00   06   12   18
HKO  00
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06--Prognostic Reasoning
         12--Prognostic Reasoning   18--Prognostic Reasoning

6月27日:
JMA   00   03   06   09   12
CMA  00   06   09   12(停编)
         台风公报(05:48)   台风公报(10:00)   台风公报(18:00)
KMA  00   06   12
CWB  00   06
JTWC  00--Prognostic Reasoning   06(Final Warning)
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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It's Always With Me.

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发表于 2021-6-21 10:04 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/06W/#01/06-21 00Z

本帖最后由 933954 于 2021-6-21 10:07 编辑

WTPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201251ZJUN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z --- NEAR 11.2N 147.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 147.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 12.1N 145.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 13.2N 143.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 14.4N 142.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 15.6N 141.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 18.4N 139.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 22.2N 138.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 27.6N 140.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 146.9E.
21JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 201300).//
NNNN
wp0621.gif

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我吹过你吹过的晚风
是否看过同样 风景
像扰乱时差留在错位时空
终是空 是空
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发表于 2021-6-21 11:14 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/06W/#01/06-21 00Z Prognostic Reasoning

本帖最后由 Victory 于 2021-6-21 11:31 编辑

WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.2N 147.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 9 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BURSTS OVER THE CENTER AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED
OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES. A 202341Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING PRIMARILY
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES OVER
THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0, CONSISTENT WITH THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE DUE TO THE WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A NARROW, WEAK
TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THIS IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY WARM
SST VALUES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: N/A

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR THEN POLEWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW
SLIGHTLY AS IT ROUNDS THE STR THEN ACCELERATE AS IT APPROACHES A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH OF HONSHU. DUE TO THE WEAK
OUTFLOW AND FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES GUAM WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24 THEN GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO
A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL STR TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TUTT CELL FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, IN GENERAL, SUPPORTS
THE FORECAST TRACK JUST SOUTH OF GUAM WITH A SPREAD OF 62NM AT TAU
24. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TOWARD THE ECMF AND EEMN SOLUTIONS,
WHICH ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. THE PRIMARY
REASON FOR THIS ADJUSTMENT IS THAT THE ECMF AND EEMN INITIALIZED
THE SYSTEM CENTER BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH WAS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
AFTER TAU 24, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE GFS TRACKERS, WHICH DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN SIDES OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.2N 147.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 9 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BURSTS OVER THE CENTER AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED
OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES. A 202341Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING PRIMARILY
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES OVER
THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0, CONSISTENT WITH THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE DUE TO THE WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A NARROW, WEAK
TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THIS IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY WARM
SST VALUES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR THEN POLEWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW
SLIGHTLY AS IT ROUNDS THE STR THEN ACCELERATE AS IT APPROACHES A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH OF HONSHU. DUE TO THE WEAK
OUTFLOW AND FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES GUAM WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24 THEN GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO
A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL STR TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TUTT CELL FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, IN GENERAL, SUPPORTS
THE FORECAST TRACK JUST SOUTH OF GUAM WITH A SPREAD OF 62NM AT TAU
24. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TOWARD THE ECMF AND EEMN SOLUTIONS,
WHICH ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. THE PRIMARY
REASON FOR THIS ADJUSTMENT IS THAT THE ECMF AND EEMN INITIALIZED
THE SYSTEM CENTER BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH WAS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
AFTER TAU 24, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE GFS TRACKERS, WHICH DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN SIDES OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
06W_210000sair.jpg

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 楼主| 发表于 2021-6-21 15:46 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/06W/#02/06-21 06Z

本帖最后由 iam最小值 于 2021-6-22 02:40 编辑

F797AB1B-853A-46C5-A69C-772E7C7F8775.gif
WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z --- NEAR 11.8N 146.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 146.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 12.8N 144.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 13.8N 143.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 15.1N 141.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 16.4N 140.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 19.5N 139.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 23.4N 139.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 29.2N 140.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 146.0E.
21JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134
NM SOUTHEAST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND
220900Z.
//
NNNN

WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z --- NEAR 11.8N 146.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 146.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 12.8N 144.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 13.8N 143.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 15.1N 141.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 16.4N 140.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 19.5N 139.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 23.4N 139.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 29.2N 140.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 146.0E.
21JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139
NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND
220900Z.//
NNNN

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发表于 2021-6-21 16:52 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/06W/#02/06-21 06Z Prognostic Reasoning

本帖最后由 Victory 于 2021-6-21 18:43 编辑

WDPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.8N 146.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 139 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ILLUSTRATES A
SOMEWHAT SHEARED DEPICTION, WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND
DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION ISOLATED TO THEN NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
A 210335Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDS EXTENDING FURTHER AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR, WHICH HAS SINCE
MOVED THE CONVECTION OFF THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, AS WELL AS
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AMSR2 DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T2.0 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.2, WHICH
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL STRUCTURE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 210540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: WHILE OVERALL VWS VALUES ARE LOW, THE PRESENCE OF
A MESOSCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY IS INDUCING
SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS
SERVING TO ENHANCE THE IMPACT OF THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION NEAR THE CORE.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR CENTERED FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36, THEN SLOW SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES THE
RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE
AXIS BY AROUND TAU 96, THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120. BY TAU 120, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT BOTH WITH THE MEIYU
BOUNDARY AND A MID-LATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH
OVER HONSHU, AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. IN
LIGHT OF THE POOR UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48 AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER VERY WARM, HIGH OHC WATERS WITH A SIMULTANEOUS
IMPROVEMENT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. AFTER TAU 96, THE
COMBINATION OF DECREASING SSTS, INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS AND
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONSPIRE TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE CENTER OF TD 06W PASSING SOUTH OF
GUAM WITH A SPREAD OF 65NM AT TAU 24, INCREASING TO 125NM BY TAU
48. THE JTWC TRACK LIES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 36, CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS SIX HOUR
TRACK MOTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE JTWC
TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH ITSELF CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN. GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASING
TO 645NM BY TAU 120, PRIMARILY DUE TO INCREASED ALONG TRACK ERRORS,
AS THE ECMWF FAR OUTPACES THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
96. THE GFS REMAINS A SLOW AND EASTWARD OUTLIER FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.8N 146.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 139 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ILLUSTRATES A
SOMEWHAT SHEARED DEPICTION, WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND
DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION ISOLATED TO THEN NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
A 210335Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDS EXTENDING FURTHER AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHERLY SHEAR, WHICH HAS SINCE
MOVED THE CONVECTION OFF THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, AS WELL AS
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AMSR2 DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T2.0 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.2, WHICH
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL STRUCTURE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 210540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: WHILE OVERALL VWS VALUES ARE LOW, THE PRESENCE OF
A MESOSCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY IS INDUCING
SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS
SERVING TO ENHANCE THE IMPACT OF THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION NEAR THE CORE.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR CENTERED FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36, THEN SLOW SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES THE
RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE
AXIS BY AROUND TAU 96, THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120. BY TAU 120, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT BOTH WITH THE MEIYU
BOUNDARY AND A MID-LATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH
OVER HONSHU, AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. IN
LIGHT OF THE POOR UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48 AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER VERY WARM, HIGH OHC WATERS WITH A SIMULTANEOUS
IMPROVEMENT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. AFTER TAU 96, THE
COMBINATION OF DECREASING SSTS, INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS AND
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONSPIRE TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE CENTER OF TD 06W PASSING SOUTH OF
GUAM WITH A SPREAD OF 65NM AT TAU 24, INCREASING TO 125NM BY TAU
48. THE JTWC TRACK LIES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 36, CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS SIX HOUR
TRACK MOTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE JTWC
TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH ITSELF CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN. GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASING
TO 645NM BY TAU 120, PRIMARILY DUE TO INCREASED ALONG TRACK ERRORS,
AS THE ECMWF FAR OUTPACES THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
96. THE GFS REMAINS A SLOW AND EASTWARD OUTLIER FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
06W_210600sair.jpg

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 楼主| 发表于 2021-6-21 21:36 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/06W/#03/06-21 12Z

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2021-6-21 23:32 编辑

wp0621.gif
WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z --- NEAR 12.1N 145.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 145.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 13.2N 143.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 14.4N 141.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 15.6N 140.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 17.1N 140.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 20.3N 139.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 25.2N 139.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 32.1N 142.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 144.8E.
21JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
//
NNNN

wp0621COR.gif
WTPN31 PGTW 211500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z --- NEAR 12.1N 145.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 145.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 13.2N 143.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 14.4N 141.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 15.6N 140.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 17.1N 140.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 20.3N 139.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 25.2N 139.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 32.1N 142.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 144.8E.
21JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED 50 KT WIND RADII TO TAU 72
AND TAU 96.//
NNNN

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发表于 2021-6-21 22:43 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/06W/#03/06-21 12Z Prognostic Reasoning

本帖最后由 Victory 于 2021-6-21 22:45 编辑

WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.1N 145.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 99 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, STILL STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE UNDER
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE PASS FROM
210831Z SHOWED THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AT THAT TIME, WITH
CONVECTION SHEARING IN A LINEAR FORMATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, EIR SUBSEQUENT TO THE
1200Z HOUR CONFIRM ANOTHER FLARE UP OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER
THE ASSESSED LLCC, BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN LIGHT OF THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE OUTER LOW-LEVEL BANDS EVIDENT IN
THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY, AS WELL ANIMATED RADAR VELOCITY AND
REFLECTIVE DATA FROM ANDERSEN AFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
30 KTS, ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0, AND ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.2.
ADDITIONALLY, THE RADAR VELOCITY ESTIMATES INDICATED WINDS OF 35-40
KTS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET, WHICH PROVIDES GOOD SUPPORT FOR A
30 KT SURFACE WIND.  

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 210903Z
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 211140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
   
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 06W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWEST, SLOWLY TURNING STEADILY MORE NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72, AS
IT TRAVERSES THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR CENTERED FAR
TO THE NORTHEAST. FORWARD TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AFTER TAU
24 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER STEERING PATTERN ON
APPROACH TO THE RIDGE AXIS. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE
AXIS SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, AND THEN WILL STEADILY ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE 30TH PARALLEL, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
MEIYU BOUNDARY, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
SOUTH OVER JAPAN AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
IN THE NEAR-TERM, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOW
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND SOME WEAKLY SUBSIDENT FLOW TO THE
WEST, IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WHILE
PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM. AFTER TAU 12, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES AND THE TRACK TAKES IT OVER WARMER AND HIGHER
OHC WATERS, TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT ROUGHLY THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE, PEAKING AT 50 KTS AT TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 96.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS COMBINED WITH DECREASING SSTS WILL
CONSPIRE TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT, AT LEAST THROUGH TAU 72, WITH THE CENTER OF TD 06W
PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM WITH A SPREAD OF 63 NM AT TAU 24, INCREASING
TO 110NM BY TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK LIES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 36, CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS SIX
HOUR TRACK MOTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
JTWC TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH TAU
72, THEN BECOMES SLIGHTLY FASTER AND EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS MEAN. GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES TO OVER 800 NM BY TAU 120
AS THE ECMWF AND PARTICULARLY THE NAVGEM TRACKERS DEPICT AN
UNREASONABLE ACCELERATION IN THE FORWARD TRACK SPEED, WHILE THE
UKMET ENSEMBLE DEPICTS A MUCH SLOWER TRACK, FARTHER TO THE WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
06W_211200sair.jpg

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发表于 2021-6-22 04:15 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/06W/#04/06-21 18Z

本帖最后由 Victory 于 2021-6-22 04:17 编辑

WTPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 144.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 144.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 13.9N 142.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 15.0N 141.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 16.2N 140.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 17.7N 140.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 20.8N 139.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 25.3N 139.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 31.9N 141.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 144.1E.
21JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 46
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
//
NNNN
wp0621 (1).gif

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发表于 2021-6-22 05:06 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/06W/#04/06-21 18Z Prognostic Reasoning

本帖最后由 Victory 于 2021-6-22 05:07 编辑

WDPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.6N 144.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 46 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAGATNA, GUAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM DEPICT A SHEARED CYCLONE, WITH A COMPACT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER (LLC) LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MASS
OF RAGGED CONVECTION. A TUTT CELL TO THE WEST CAN BE SEEN PUSHING
CIRRUS FRAGMENTS TOWARD THE LLC FROM THE SOUTHWEST, DENOTING
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TUTT CELL IS CURRENTLY PREVENTING UPSHEAR PROPAGATION OF
CONVECTION, EVIDENCED BY THE IMMEDIATE EVAPORATION OF NASCENT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BOTH LARGELY BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY, WHICH HAS SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED VORTEX CONTAINING
WIDESPREAD 35-40 KT DOPPLER VELOCITIES AT 4000-7000 FT, TRANSLATING
ROUGHLY TO 30 KT SURFACE WINDS. A 211549Z AMSR2 PASS ALSO SUPPORTED
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF 25-30 KT. OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
VORTEX HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 210903Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 211430Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EASTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS. THE SPEED WITH WHICH TD 06W ROUNDS THIS
RIDGE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTHEAST THE CYCLONE TRACKS DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS, AS A MORE RIGHTWARD TRACK WOULD PLACE THE
CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE STRONG BELT OF DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW,
LEADING TO FASTER FORWARD MOTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS THUS
SPREAD BETWEEN SLOWER, LEFTWARD TRACKS AND FASTER, RIGHTWARD
TRACKS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS,
IN PART DUE TO A SLIGHT JOG NORTH OF GUIDANCE DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A BIT SLOWER DURING THE
72-120 HOUR PERIOD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, FOLLOWING THE
RECENT GUIDANCE TREND. THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, AS CONTINUED
ENTANGLEMENT WITH THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND A SOMEWHAT DRY
SURROUNDING AIR MASS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN DURING THE 24-48
HOUR PERIOD AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS, AND MODEST
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50 KT IS FORECAST BY 72 HOURS. SHEAR
IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN, AS WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE
PASSING BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MEI-YU FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR. TD 06W IS THUS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AFTER 72 HOURS, THEN MORE STEADILY TO
35 KT BY 120 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE CROSSES INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 24-25C. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE THAT IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST, POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH THE MEI-YU BOUNDARY
INDUCES LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST GENERALLY LIES SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, IN PART DUE
TO THE LEFTWARD OUTLIERS AFUM AND UKMET ENSEMBLE WHICH DO NOT
PROPERLY RESOLVE THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE VORTEX, AS WELL AS THE
SPEEDY OUTLIER NAVGEM. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
06W_211800sair.jpg

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