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[2021] 2105号台风“蔷琵”(06W.Champi) - 掠过关岛,北上转向 - JTWC:65KT

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发表于 2021-6-18 07:55 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2021-6-28 18:25 编辑

编扰资讯

94W INVEST 210617 1800 6.0N 157.0E WPAC 15 0
94W INVEST 210618 0000 4.7N 157.1E WPAC 15 1010

20210617.233000.WP942021.ahi.himawari-8.Visible.15kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +5 威望 +5 收起 理由
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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-6-18 08:13 | 显示全部楼层
刚说完就给了
伊苏8赛高,红毛走开,丹娜我最爱
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发表于 2021-6-18 08:15 | 显示全部楼层
应该是赤道槽上的一个云团诱发,由于目前季风活动处在间歇期因此这个系统目前由东风主导。北侧是副高,估计短期内仍然西行为主,但E和G对此有分歧,E认为发展不起来,G认为能发展起来并跟目前琉球东南的低涡相互作用,将南海季风重新导入日本南部洋面,直接影响大陆梅雨锋的活动
伊苏8赛高,红毛走开,丹娜我最爱
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 楼主| 发表于 2021-6-18 08:53 | 显示全部楼层
GFS预报四天内成旋并将影响关岛一带,ECMWF部分成员支持发展
gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_17.png
gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_30.png
94W_tracks_latest.png
94W_gefs_latest.png
94W_geps_latest.png
wpac.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-6-18 09:00 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

GFS预报关岛,JTWC迅速评级LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 180000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/180000Z-180600ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
4.7N 157.1E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI,
MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 172208Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS BROAD
TURNING COMPOSED OF 5-10 KT WINDS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
STRENGTHEN, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS LOW//
NNNN
180000abpwsair.jpg
Strong claims require strong evidence.
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 楼主| 发表于 2021-6-18 09:00 | 显示全部楼层
目前94W辐合30,辐散50,风切尚可,涡度泛橙,稍早前风场扫描显示其东侧部分区域风力较强
wgmsdvg.gif
wgmsconv.gif
wgmsshr.gif
wgmssht.gif
wgmsvor.gif
20210617.2226.mtc.ASCAT.wind.94W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb.47N.1571E.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210617.2313.mtb.ASCAT.wind.94W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb.47N.1571E.25km.jpeg
20210617.2313.mtb.ASCAT.wind.94W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb.47N.1571E.25km.noqc.jpeg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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 楼主| 发表于 2021-6-18 09:53 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 18Z系集,支持发展的成员似乎有所增多
wpac.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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 楼主| 发表于 2021-6-18 18:05 | 显示全部楼层
GFS 00Z决定报及系集部分成员继续支持发展,ECMWF决定报反应不太明显,系集有部分成员支持发展
gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_13.png
gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_28.png
94W_tracks_latest.png
94W_gefs_latest.png
wpac.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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 楼主| 发表于 2021-6-18 18:10 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.7N 157.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 155.7E, APPROXIMATELY 254
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL POSITION, HOWEVER ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES FROM A
36GHZ COMPOSITE AMSR2 IMAGE AT 180303Z REVEALS AN OVERALL LACK OF
ORGANIZED SYSTEM STRUCTURE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH CONDUCIVE, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE VALUES AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
FURTHERMORE, A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE ANALYZED POSITION
REVEALS SUPPORTIVE, ROBUST DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT
IN THE ANIMATED MSI LOOP. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
GUAM AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
20210618.0303.gw1.36pct36h36v.94W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.4.7N.157.1E.96pc.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-6-18 21:08 | 显示全部楼层
94W INVEST 210618 1200 6.0N 153.7E WPAC 15 1008

20210618_123000_WP942021_ahi_himawari-8_IR-BD_15kts_100p00_1p0.png
20210618_061500_WP942021_ssmis_F18_color89Clean_15kts_78p81_1p0.png
94W_tracks_latest.png
94W_gefs_latest.png
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