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[2021] 墨西哥以南93E - 12.7N 98.8W - NHC:40%

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发表于 2021-6-11 07:03 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2021-6-14 10:50 编辑

93E INVEST 210610 1800 12.7N 98.8W EPAC 25 1008

20210610.2240.goes-16.vis.2km.93E.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.12.7N.98.7W.pc.jpg

two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d1.png

2. A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form this weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
could occur over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
through early next week.  See products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

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发表于 2021-6-11 11:32 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:20%/50%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 10 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles
south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico, is producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a little more
concentrated today and environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development. A tropical depression could form by this
weekend while the system drifts north-northeastward.  Heavy rainfall
will be possible over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico through early next week. See products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could
form by early next week while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Stewart
two_pac_2d0.png
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d0.png
two_pac_5d1.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-6-11 14:40 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:30%/50%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jun 10 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure has developed a couple hundred miles
south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization this
evening, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend
while the system drifts north-northeastward.  Heavy rainfall will be
possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
through early next week. See products from your local meteorological
service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some gradual development
over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Stewart
two_pac_2d0.png
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d0.png
two_pac_5d1.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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积分
965
发表于 2021-6-11 19:17 | 显示全部楼层
ASCAT风场,近岸地区出现35kt风旗,但不是很可信
20210611.0302Z
20210611.0302.mta.ASCAT.wind.93E.INVEST.25kts-1007mb.127N.983W.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210611.0330Z
20210611.0330.mtc.ASCAT.wind.93E.INVEST.25kts-1007mb.127N.983W.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210611.0417Z
20210611.0417.mtb.ASCAT.wind.93E.INVEST.25kts-1007mb.127N.983W.25km.noqc.jpeg
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发表于 2021-6-11 20:49 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/50%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 11 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning
in association with a broad area of low pressure a couple hundred
miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system
drifts north-northeastward.  Heavy rainfall will be possible over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early next
week. See products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some gradual development
over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Latto
two_pac_2d0.png
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d0.png
two_pac_5d1.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-6-11 21:16 | 显示全部楼层
93E INVEST 210611 1200 12.9N 97.7W EPAC 25 1007

20210611_124032_EP932021_abi_goes-17_IR-BD_25kts_100p00_1p0.png
20210611_105100_EP932021_ssmis_F16_color89Clean_25kts_87p25_1p0.png
93E_tracks_latest.png
93E_gefs_latest.png
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发表于 2021-6-12 12:37 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2021-6-12 19:16 编辑

ASCAT风场,中心北侧有20kt风旗,南侧风力较弱
20210612.0241Z
20210612.0241.mta.ASCAT.wind.93E.INVEST.25kts-1007mb.141N.967W.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210612.0309Z
20210612.0309.mtc.ASCAT.wind.93E.INVEST.25kts-1007mb.138N.960W.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210612.0356Z
20210612.0356.mtb.ASCAT.wind.93E.INVEST.25kts-1007mb.138N.960W.25km.noqc.jpeg
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965
发表于 2021-6-12 21:08 | 显示全部楼层
93E INVEST 210612 1200 13.7N 97.4W EPAC 25 1007

20210612_124032_EP932021_abi_goes-17_IR-BD_25kts_100p00_1p0.png
20210612_103700_EP932021_ssmis_F16_color89Clean_25kts_77p66_1p0.png
93E_tracks_latest.png
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台风

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3482
发表于 2021-6-13 01:52 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/40%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. Morning satellite imagery indicates that the broad area of low
pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula continues to become better organized.
If this trend continues, advisories for a tropical depression could
be initiated later today or tonight as the system moves slowly
westward. Early next week, conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized this morning in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about a
hundred miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear somewhat conducive for some additional
development, and a tropical depression could still form over the
weekend, as long as the system remains over water while drifting
northeastward. Heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of
Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Latto
two_pac_2d0 (5).png two_pac_2d2 (4).png
two_pac_5d0 (3).png two_pac_5d2 (2).png
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发表于 2021-6-13 16:47 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:20%/20%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Carlos, located more than 1200 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized in association
with a weak area of low pressure located about a hundred miles
south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive for additional development over the
next day or so. By early next week, the system is forecast to
interact with land and a larger disturbance developing to its north,
and formation of a tropical cyclone is not anticipated. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of
Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlos are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlos are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

Forecaster Stewart
two_pac_2d0.png
two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_5d0.png
two_pac_5d1.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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