台风论坛

 找回密码
 立即注册

QQ登录

只需一步,快速开始

搜索
热搜: 台风
查看: 2566|回复: 16

[2021] 马绍尔群岛91W - 7.5N 165.8E

[复制链接]

29

主题

792

帖子

3790

积分

台风

积分
3790
发表于 2021-6-7 12:55 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2021-6-9 16:30 编辑

91W INVEST 210607 0000 6.5N 168.5E WPAC 15 0

20210607.0430.himawari-8.vis.91W.INVEST.15kts.1002mb.6.5N.168.5E.100pc.jpg

评分

参与人数 1金钱 +5 威望 +5 收起 理由
327 + 5 + 5

查看全部评分

回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2021-6-7 13:20 | 显示全部楼层
GFS等少数数值初始场有微弱反应,但并不支持进一步发展
gfs_z850_vort_wpac_1.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2021-6-7 13:27 | 显示全部楼层
辐合5,辐散10,所处位置及前方风切较低,涡度为两小块不规则的橙色
wgmsdvg.gif
wgmsconv.gif
wgmsshr.gif
wgmssht.gif
wgmsvor.gif
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
回复

使用道具 举报

140

主题

7722

帖子

4万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
43596
发表于 2021-6-7 14:00 | 显示全部楼层
GFS个别成员跟踪到了,但是反应仍然极弱
91W_gefs_0700z.png
Solitude Rain
回复

使用道具 举报

0

主题

534

帖子

965

积分

热带风暴

积分
965
发表于 2021-6-7 21:05 | 显示全部楼层
91W INVEST 210607 1200 6.4N 167.3E WPAC 15 1009

20210607_123000_WP912021_ahi_himawari-8_IR-BD_15kts_100p00_1p0.png
20210607_051300_WP912021_ssmis_F18_color89Clean_15kts_99p34_1p0.png
91W_tracks_latest.png
91W_gefs_latest.png
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2021-6-7 23:29 | 显示全部楼层
稍早前风场显示91W风力很弱,15kt的风旗都鲜有见到
20210607.0928.mta.ASCAT.wind.91W.INVEST.15kts-1009mb.64N.1673E.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210607.0956.mtc.ASCAT.wind.91W.INVEST.15kts-1009mb.64N.1673E.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210607.1043.mtb.ASCAT.wind.91W.INVEST.15kts-1009mb.64N.1673E.25km.noqc.jpeg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
回复

使用道具 举报

169

主题

1万

帖子

4万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
45183
发表于 2021-6-8 09:14 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2021-6-8 09:32 编辑

FCD4A1ED-100C-4DAB-9961-CCC66F7EB52D.jpeg
FD724238-8EB5-44BC-8B68-161BA8F3D01A.jpeg
ABPW10 PGTW 080030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080030Z-080600ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N
168.0E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING
AREA OF CONVECTION WITH FEEDER BANDS TO THE NORTH AND FLARING
CONVECTION WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS JUST SOUTH OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 071913Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. INVEST 91W IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-
10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING FROM INVEST 91W, HOWEVER, JTWC WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A FAVORABLE
APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AS LOW.//
NNNN
回复

使用道具 举报

140

主题

7722

帖子

4万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
43596
发表于 2021-6-8 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
JMA已经切换机动观测
aswind_tgir_0300.png
Solitude Rain
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2021-6-8 15:04 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N
168.0E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING
AREA OF CONVECTION AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 080502Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO
THE LLC. INVEST 91W IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING FROM
INVEST 91W, HOWEVER, JTWC WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO A FAVORABLE APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
20210608.0502.f18.91pct91h91v.91W.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.5.6N.167.5E.090pc.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
回复

使用道具 举报

发表于 2021-6-8 15:24 | 显示全部楼层
GFS等数值均预报91W将向西偏北方向移动,但无明显发展
91W_tracks_latest.png
91W_gefs_latest.png
91W_geps_latest.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
回复

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

QQ|Archiver|手机版|小黑屋|台风论坛 ( 沪ICP备20014818号-2 )

GMT+8, 2021-6-21 11:33

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

Copyright © 2001-2020, Tencent Cloud.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表