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新喀里多尼亚东南热带低压13F(28P) - 东南行影响新喀里多尼亚

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发表于 2021-4-7 22:06 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2021-4-11 07:25 编辑

92P INVEST 210407 1200 11.2S 154.3E SHEM 20 1005

20210407.1350.himawari-8.ir.92P.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.11.2S.154.3E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
1007圆规 + 3 + 3 92P

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发表于 2021-4-8 00:18 | 显示全部楼层
目前GFS和ECMWF都预报92P将南下影响新喀里多尼亚附近,ECMWF预报强度在混名边缘,GFS则比较乐观
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_swpac_fh0-168.gif
aus.png
gfs_mslp_wind_swpac_15.png
92P_gefs_latest.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2021-4-8 10:08 | 显示全部楼层
ABPW10 PGTW 080100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080100Z-080600ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.6S 155.4E, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY,
PAPUA, NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS
CYCLING CONVECTION OF AN OBSCURE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST
92P IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER AN AREA OF WEAK (10-20KTS)
VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: 92S UPGRADED TO A LOW.//
NNNN
11C33C89-A9A5-422C-BFBD-B98D8EA5C841.jpeg
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发表于 2021-4-8 12:43 | 显示全部楼层
20210407.2132.mta.ASCAT.wind.92P.INVEST.20kts-1004mb.116S.1548E.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210407.2247.mtb.ASCAT.wind.92P.INVEST.20kts-1004mb.116S.1548E.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210407.2340.mtc.ASCAT.wind.92P.INVEST.20kts-1004mb.126S.1554E.25km.noqc.jpeg
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发表于 2021-4-8 15:01 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 155.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 155.4E, APPROXIMATELY
384 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 080420Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, REVEALS
DISORGANIZED, FRAGMENTED CONVECTION SURROUNDING A PARTIALLY OBSCURE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AXIS. A 072247Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS A VERY
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED LLC WITH A LARGE AREA OF 15 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
92P WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST, REMAINING
LARGELY ASYMMETRIC, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
20210408.0420.gpm.89pct89h89v.92P.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.12.6S.155.4E.060pc.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-4-8 17:46 | 显示全部楼层
今天下午BoM展望中已提及92P,但认为其很快就会移出责任区
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 8 April 2021
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 11 April 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is expected to develop close to the Eastern Region border [160 degrees East], south of the Solomon Islands from Friday. The low is expected to move southeastwards and out of the Region by late Saturday.

There are no other significant tropical lows in the Region and none are expected to develop during the next three days.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
aus.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-4-8 21:12 | 显示全部楼层
20210408_123000_SH922021_ahi_himawari-8_IR-BD_20kts_100p00_1p0.png
92P_tracks_latest.png
92P_gefs_latest.png
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发表于 2021-4-9 04:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Victory 于 2021-4-9 04:37 编辑

JTWC:REMAINS LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 082000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/082000Z-090600ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 155.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 156.3E, APPROXIMATELY
407 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 081731Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, REVEALS DISORGANIZED, FRAGMENTED CONVECTION SURROUNDING A
PARTIALLY OBSCURE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ELONGATED ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS. INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P
WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST, REMAINING LARGELY
ASYMMETRIC, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: 92P UPDATED POSITION AT 081800Z.//
NNNN

aus (11).png 92P_tracks_latest.png
92P_gefs_latest (3).png
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发表于 2021-4-9 12:40 | 显示全部楼层
20210408.2111.mta.ASCAT.wind.92P.INVEST.20kts-1004mb.134S.1563E.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210408.2226.mtb.ASCAT.wind.92P.INVEST.25kts-1004mb.141S.1569E.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210408.2320.mtc.ASCAT.wind.92P.INVEST.25kts-1004mb.141S.1569E.25km.noqc.jpeg
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发表于 2021-4-9 16:40 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 156.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 157.1E, APPROXIMATELY
419 NM EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY EXPOSED, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
OFFSET TO THE WEST. A 090334Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLC WITH MINOR, FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10
TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT EASTWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD; HOWEVER, DISAGREE ON INTENSIFICATION RATE
WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATING THAT 92P WILL INTENSIFY, BUT
REMAIN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. GFS IS THE NOTABLE OUTLIER,
INDICATING THAT 92P WILL REACH WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
20210409.0334.gw1.89pct89h89v.92P.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.14.1S.156.9E.64pc.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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