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[2021] 科科斯群岛东南热带低压24U(91S) - 14.6S 106.6E

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It's Always With Me.

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发表于 2021-4-6 21:50 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2021-4-11 22:00 编辑

IDY10220
SECURITE

High Seas Forecast for Western METAREA 10
WESTERN AREA: 12/30S 90/125E, 30/50S 80/129E

Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 6 April 2021

Part 1 Warnings
WA TCWC Storm Force Wind Warning for TC Seroja.

WA TCWC Gale Warning for Tropical Low [1].

Melbourne Gale Warning 11.

Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC
TC Seroja 985hPa near 11.4S119.8E. Forecast 974hPa near 1.0S115.8E at 071200UTC.

Tropical Low [1] 1005hPa near 16.5S105.3E. Forecast 1003hPa near 16.2S 105.6E
at 071200UTC.

Tropical low [2] 1007hPa near 10.0S089.5E. Forecast 1001hPa near 9.5S093E at
071200UTC.



Another tropical low (24U) may form well to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands later on Tuesday or Wednesday and move east or southeast. It is a low risk of developing into a tropical cyclone from Wednesday, but is not likely to enter the Western Region before Friday. The system may pass close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Friday and Saturday and may experience increased shower and thunderstorm activity during this time with some gusty winds.
24U已经生成啦
IDE00125.202104061230.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
iam最小值 + 3 + 3

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发表于 2021-4-7 06:42 | 显示全部楼层
A tropical low
(24U) lies well to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It may move
close to the Islands on Friday or Saturday, bringing an increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity.
If you feel sad for buring it in your heart, then just smile and let it go.
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发表于 2021-4-7 08:07 | 显示全部楼层

91S

本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2021-4-7 08:19 编辑

91S INVEST 210406 1800 9.0S 90.4E SHEM 15 0

20210406.2126.f15.37h.91S.INVEST.15kts.993mb.9S.90.4E.040pc.jpg

20210406.2340.himawari-8.ir.91S.INVEST.15kts.993mb.9S.90.4E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
炎煌深沉 + 3 + 3 91S

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-4-7 18:14 | 显示全部楼层
ABIO10 PGTW 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/071000Z-071800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070752ZAPR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZAPR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND A ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07APR21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 105.7E, APPROXIMATELY 608 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 070900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 07APR21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 584 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 070300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7S
91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL
070706Z AMSR-2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL DISORGANIZED BANDING
WITH CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND EAST OF A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST 91S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY STRONG (20-25KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 91S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER AN AREA OF LOW (10-15KTS) VWS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
LOW.//
NNNN

If you feel sad for buring it in your heart, then just smile and let it go.
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发表于 2021-4-7 21:10 | 显示全部楼层
91S INVEST 210407 1200 9.8S 92.3E SHEM 20 1006

20210407_123000_SH912021_ahi_himawari-8_IR-BD_20kts_100p00_1p0.png
20210407_103800_SH912021_ssmis_F16_color89Clean_20kts_83p70_1p0.png
91S_tracks_latest.png
91S_gefs_latest.png
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发表于 2021-4-8 01:47 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Victory 于 2021-4-8 05:38 编辑

JTWC:REMAINS LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071352ZAPR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071351ZAPR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07APR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 105.9E, APPROXIMATELY 578 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 071500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 07APR21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 115.9E, APPROXIMATELY 456 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 071500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7S 91.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 91.9E, APPROXIMATELY 326 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 071501Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL DISORGANIZED BANDING WITH CYCLING CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
INVEST 91S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY STRONG (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91S WILL CONSOLIDATE
AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNDER AN AREA OF WEAK (10-20KTS) VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair - 2021-04-08T053718.754.jpg
LATEST - 2021-04-08T012515.582.jpg LATEST - 2021-04-08T012507.111.jpg
91S_gefs_latest (2).png
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发表于 2021-4-8 17:44 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 8 April 2021
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 11 April 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Tropical Cyclone Seroja lies well to the north of the Pilbara coast and is moving southwest as it slowly intensifies.

On Saturday it will take a southerly track to the west of the Northwest Cape before moving southeast on Sunday towards the Gascoyne or west coast. The system is likely to cross the coast somewhere between Perth and Coral Bay, most likely between Carnarvon and Jurien Bay. The system is likely to bring a relatively brief but intense period of dangerous weather when crossing the coast. People in these areas are urged to keep up-to-date with the latest forecasts and warnings at http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml.

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:High
Saturday:High
Sunday:High
Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (23U) lies well to the south of Christmas Island. It expected to move east on Friday and intensify into a Tropical Cyclone before weakening as it moves south on Saturday. There is likely to be a period of strong winds and rain associated with this system across the northwest corner of the State during Saturday evening.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:High
Saturday:Moderate
Sunday:Moderate


Another tropical low (24U) lies well to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It is expected to move southeast and enter the region on Friday. The system will continue tracking southeast over the weekend and there is a moderate chance that it strengthens into a tropical cyclone while passing close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Even if it remains a tropical low, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands are likely to experience increased squally shower and thunderstorm activity over the weekend with gusty winds.

Thankfully, there are no other significant systems expected in the region for at least the next three days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:Low
Saturday:Moderate
Sunday:Moderate
sio.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-4-8 21:11 | 显示全部楼层
91S INVEST 210408 1200 10.3S 93.8E SHEM 25 1004

20210408_123000_SH912021_ahi_himawari-8_IR-BD_25kts_100p00_1p0.png
20210408_074807_SH912021_amsr2_gcom-w1_color89Clean_25kts_58p13_1p0.png
91S_tracks_latest.png
91S_gefs_latest.png
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发表于 2021-4-9 03:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Victory 于 2021-4-9 05:49 编辑

JTWC:REMAINS LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081352ZAPR2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZAPR2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08APR21 1500Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 106.2E, APPROXIMATELY 628 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 081500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 08APR21 1500Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW
081500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7S 91.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 93.9E, APPROXIMATELY 221 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF AN OBSCURE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST 91S IS
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OFFSET BY STRONG (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-25KTS) VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

abpwsair - 2021-04-09T033816.361.jpg LATEST - 2021-04-09T030304.791.jpg LATEST - 2021-04-09T023415.154.jpg
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发表于 2021-4-9 12:39 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2021-4-9 19:25 编辑

20210409.0214.mta.ASCAT.wind.91S.INVEST.25kts-1004mb.107S.955E.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210409.0329.mtb.ASCAT.wind.91S.INVEST.25kts-1004mb.107S.955E.25km.noqc.jpeg
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