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[2021] 西澳西北一级热带气旋“奥黛特”(23U/27S.Odette) - 与26S藤原后遭吞并

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凌波微步,罗袜生尘

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发表于 2021-4-1 13:28 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2021-4-11 15:00 编辑

90S INVEST 210401 0000 8.0S 102.5E SHEM 15 0

20210401.0510.himawari-8.vis.90S.INVEST.15kts.996mb.8S.102.5E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 90S

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发表于 2021-4-1 16:29 | 显示全部楼层
BoM展望中已经提及此系统,ECMWF 00Z报支持成旋,并认为后期其可能与东侧的99S发生藤原
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 1 April 2021
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 4 April 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical activity has increased along a trough near Indonesia, and a tropical low (22U) is likely to consolidate on Friday near the island of Timor. The system should then move south into the Western Region on the weekend and be located well to the north of the Kimberley coast. It is a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone on the weekend.

There is still some uncertainty as to where 22U will move from next Monday, but it will most likely move in a southwesterly direction, roughly parallel to the WA coast. The environment in this area is favourable, and it should continue to develop.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Moderate
Sunday:Moderate


Another low may form near 10S 103E on Friday, to the west of Christmas Island. It is likely to move south and be slow to develop. There is a Low chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone over the weekend, by which time it should be far enough south to have no direct impact on Christmas Island.

No other significant systems are expected in the region for at least the next three days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Low
ecmwf_z500_mslp_io_6.png
sio.png
aus.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-4-1 19:10 | 显示全部楼层
20210401.0207.mtc.ASCAT.wind.90S.INVEST.15kts-996mb.80S.1025E.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210401.0253.mtb.ASCAT.wind.90S.INVEST.15kts-996mb.80S.1025E.25km.noqc.jpeg
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发表于 2021-4-1 21:09 | 显示全部楼层
90S INVEST 210401 1200 8.1S 102.4E SHEM 20 1005

20210401_123000_SH902021_ahi_himawari-8_IR-BD_20kts_100p00_1p0.png
20210401_112000_SH902021_ssmis_F17_color89Clean_20kts_57p19_1p0.png
90S_tracks_latest.png
90S_gefs_latest.png
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发表于 2021-4-2 16:24 | 显示全部楼层
今天下午BoM展望中已经编号23U
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Friday 2 April 2021
for the period until midnight WST Monday 5 April 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (22U) is expected to form just to the south of the island of Timor later today (Friday). The system should then move south into the Western Region over the weekend and be located well to the north of the Kimberley coast. It is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during Sunday or Monday.

From Monday 22U is likely to move in a southwesterly direction, roughly parallel to the WA coast. The environment in this area is favourable, and it should continue to develop. It will most likely remain far enough offshore to not directly impact the WA mainland until at least the middle of next week, but people in the north of WA are urged to keep up-to-date with the latest forecasts and warnings.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Moderate
Sunday:Moderate
Monday:High


Another tropical low (23U) is starting to form near 9S 103E, to the west northwest of Christmas Island. It is likely to move south to southeast and be slow to develop, and there is a Low chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone from Sunday. It should be far enough south to have no direct impact on Christmas Island if it does develop, however shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to increase over the Island during the weekend.

During next week there is an increased risk of 23U developing into a tropical cyclone, however it should be over open waters well to the northwest of the WA mainland and well to the south of Christmas Island.

No other significant systems are expected in the region for at least the next three days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Low
Monday:Low
sio.png
aus.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-4-2 16:36 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

ABIO10 PGTW 020830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/REISSUED/020830Z-021800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8N 94.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 95.8E, APPROXIMATELY 212
NM NORTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 011128Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND AN
EXPOSED, ELONGATED, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 90B IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90B
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.1S
103.5E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020010Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. 90S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 30C, AND AMBIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. DYNAMICAL
MODELS GENERALLY EXPECT SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE 48-
72 HOUR RANGE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.4S 122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 14 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAWU ISLAND,
INDONESIA. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BETWEEN A BELT OF 20-25
KT EASTERLIES IN THE TIMOR SEA AND A BELT OF 30-35 KT WESTERLIES
NORTH OF THE SAVU SEA, AS ASSESSED FROM A 020146Z ASCAT-C PASS. DEEP
CONVECTION IS PATCHY AND DECENTRALIZED, BUT FORMATIVE CURVED BANDING
IS BECOMING APPARENT IN THE SOUTHERN, WESTERN, AND NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES. 99S IS EMBEDDED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 10 KTS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
30C, AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT CONTINUED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTH
OF TIMOR-LESTE IN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED A LOW AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1)
AND A MEDIUM AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(2).//
NNNN
abiosair.jpg
20210402.0010.f17.91pct91h91v.90S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.8.6S.102.6E.055pc.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-4-2 21:13 | 显示全部楼层
90S INVEST 210402 1200 9.5S 103.3E SHEM 20 1004

20210402_124000_SH902021_ahi_himawari-8_IR-BD_20kts_100p00_1p0.png
20210402_100100_SH902021_ssmis_F16_color89Clean_20kts_57p66_1p0.png
90S_tracks_latest.png
90S_gefs_latest.png
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发表于 2021-4-3 02:39 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC:REMAINS LOW
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 95.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 97.3E, APPROXIMATELY 75
NM WEST OF KADAN, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING AN
ELONGATED, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSES
INDICATE INVEST 90B IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90B
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 122.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 122.3E, APPROXIMATELY 75
NM WEST OF ROTE ISLAND, INDONESIA. ANIMATED EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BAND OF STRONG SOUTHERN CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC. 99S
IS EMBEDDED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (05-10KTS) VWS,
WARM SST OF 30C, AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH
WITHIN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.1S 103.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 103.3E, APPROXIMATELY 144
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD, POORLY
DEFINED, AND ELONGATED LOW LLC. 90S IS EMBEDDED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT (<15 KTS) VWS AND WARM (29-30C) SST.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN 72-96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
20210402.1810.himawari-8.ir.90S.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.9.5S.103.3E.100pc.jpg LATEST.jpg
LATEST01.jpg
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发表于 2021-4-3 06:46 | 显示全部楼层
20210402.1353.mta.ASCAT.wind.90S.INVEST.20kts-1004mb.95S.1033E.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210402.1421.mtc.ASCAT.wind.90S.INVEST.20kts-1004mb.95S.1033E.25km.noqc.jpeg
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强台风

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发表于 2021-4-3 07:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 POCKETBOX 于 2021-4-2 16:24 编辑


13Z的现在才发,上面明明有个15Z的
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