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[2021] 西澳西北三级强热带气旋“芙蕖”(22U/26S.Seroja) - 11日晚上登陆西澳杰拉尔顿

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论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

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发表于 2021-3-31 21:56 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2021-4-12 19:50 编辑

99P.INVEST.15kts.998mb.9.3S.123E.

20210331.1340.himawari-8.ir.99P.INVEST.15kts.998mb.9.3S.123E.100pc.jpg

99S INVEST 210331 1200 9.3S 123.0E SHEM 15 0

20210331.135000.SH992021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.15kts.100p0.1p0.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 99P/99S

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热带低压

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发表于 2021-4-1 02:15 | 显示全部楼层
  1. Tropical activity has increased along a trough near Indonesia, and a tropical low (22U) is likely to consolidate on Thursday. The system may move south into the Western Region on Thursday and Friday and be located well to the north of the Kimberley coast. It is a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by this stage.

  2. There is a large amount of uncertainty as to where 22U will move after Friday, with it possibly remaining slow moving north of the Kimberley coast, start to move towards the southwest remaining well off the WA coast or move towards the southeast through the Timor Sea. Regardless of where is is located there is the potential for the system to develop further over the weekend but is not expected to impact the WA mainland during this period.


  3. Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
  4. Thursday: Low
  5. Friday: Low
  6. Saturday:Moderate
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20210331.1750.himawari-8.ir.99S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.9.3S.123E.100pc.jpg 99S_tracks_latest (1).png
99S_gefs_latest (4).png aus (8).png
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发表于 2021-4-1 16:24 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 1 April 2021
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 4 April 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical activity has increased along a trough near Indonesia, and a tropical low (22U) is likely to consolidate on Friday near the island of Timor. The system should then move south into the Western Region on the weekend and be located well to the north of the Kimberley coast. It is a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone on the weekend.

There is still some uncertainty as to where 22U will move from next Monday, but it will most likely move in a southwesterly direction, roughly parallel to the WA coast. The environment in this area is favourable, and it should continue to develop.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Moderate
Sunday:Moderate

Another low may form near 10S 103E on Friday, to the west of Christmas Island. It is likely to move south and be slow to develop. There is a Low chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone over the weekend, by which time it should be far enough south to have no direct impact on Christmas Island.

No other significant systems are expected in the region for at least the next three days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Low

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-4-1 21:09 | 显示全部楼层
99S INVEST 210401 1200 9.3S 121.9E SHEM 25 1004

20210401_123000_SH992021_ahi_himawari-8_IR-BD_20kts_100p00_1p0.png
20210401_083200_SH992021_ssmis_F16_color89Clean_20kts_86p81_1p0.png
99S_tracks_latest.png
99S_gefs_latest.png
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发表于 2021-4-2 06:48 | 显示全部楼层
20210401.1232.mta.ASCAT.wind.99S.INVEST.25kts-1004mb.93S.1219E.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210401.1301.mtc.ASCAT.wind.99S.INVEST.25kts-1004mb.93S.1219E.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210401.1347.mtb.ASCAT.wind.99S.INVEST.25kts-1004mb.93S.1219E.25km.noqc.jpeg
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发表于 2021-4-2 12:37 | 显示全部楼层
20210401.2337.mta.ASCAT.wind.99S.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.99S.1218E.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210402.0052.mtb.ASCAT.wind.99S.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.99S.1218E.25km.noqc.jpeg
20210402.0146.mtc.ASCAT.wind.99S.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.99S.1218E.25km.noqc.jpeg
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发表于 2021-4-2 16:23 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Friday 2 April 2021
for the period until midnight WST Monday 5 April 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (22U) is expected to form just to the south of the island of Timor later today (Friday). The system should then move south into the Western Region over the weekend and be located well to the north of the Kimberley coast. It is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during Sunday or Monday.

From Monday 22U is likely to move in a southwesterly direction, roughly parallel to the WA coast. The environment in this area is favourable, and it should continue to develop. It will most likely remain far enough offshore to not directly impact the WA mainland until at least the middle of next week, but people in the north of WA are urged to keep up-to-date with the latest forecasts and warnings.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Moderate
Sunday:Moderate
Monday:High

Another tropical low (23U) is starting to form near 9S 103E, to the west northwest of Christmas Island. It is likely to move south to southeast and be slow to develop, and there is a Low chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone from Sunday. It should be far enough south to have no direct impact on Christmas Island if it does develop, however shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to increase over the Island during the weekend.

During next week there is an increased risk of 23U developing into a tropical cyclone, however it should be over open waters well to the northwest of the WA mainland and well to the south of Christmas Island.

No other significant systems are expected in the region for at least the next three days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Low
Monday:Low

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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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发表于 2021-4-2 16:38 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:MEDIUM

ABIO10 PGTW 020830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/REISSUED/020830Z-021800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8N 94.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 95.8E, APPROXIMATELY 212
NM NORTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 011128Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND AN
EXPOSED, ELONGATED, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 90B IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90B
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY AND WILL REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.1S
103.5E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020010Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. 90S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 30C, AND AMBIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. DYNAMICAL
MODELS GENERALLY EXPECT SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE 48-
72 HOUR RANGE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.4S 122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 14 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAWU ISLAND,
INDONESIA. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BETWEEN A BELT OF 20-25
KT EASTERLIES IN THE TIMOR SEA AND A BELT OF 30-35 KT WESTERLIES
NORTH OF THE SAVU SEA, AS ASSESSED FROM A 020146Z ASCAT-C PASS. DEEP
CONVECTION IS PATCHY AND DECENTRALIZED, BUT FORMATIVE CURVED BANDING
IS BECOMING APPARENT IN THE SOUTHERN, WESTERN, AND NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLES. 99S IS EMBEDDED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 10 KTS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
30C, AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT CONTINUED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTH
OF TIMOR-LESTE IN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED A LOW AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1)
AND A MEDIUM AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(2).//
NNNN
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惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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It's Always With Me.

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发表于 2021-4-2 16:39 | 显示全部楼层
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Friday, 2 April 2021, Time 08.00 Western Indonesia Time
Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:

None.

Tropical cyclone development possibility:

Suspect area with minimum pressure 1000 mb is observed in Sawu Sea near 9.3 S 122.1 E, about 193 km northwest of Kupang, and moving southwest 2 km/hr.

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Saturday (tomorrow) : medium possibility
Sunday (tomorrow +1): medium possibility
Monday (tomorrow +2) : medium possibility
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发表于 2021-4-2 21:12 | 显示全部楼层
99S INVEST 210402 1200 11.0S 122.3E SHEM 25 1002

20210402_124000_SH992021_ahi_himawari-8_IR-BD_25kts_100p00_1p0.png
20210402_081900_SH992021_ssmis_F16_color89Clean_20kts_100p00_1p0.png
99S_tracks_latest.png
99S_gefs_latest.png
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